Director, Head of Research, Smartkarma

Pranav Rao

Director, Head of Research

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Welcome to Curator’s Cut - a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,500+ insights shared on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>In this cut, we spotlight the shifting sentiment towards Indian equities, highlight the investable universe in Singapore around data centres, and draw attention to the gaming industry across continents.</li>
<li>Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you'd like to see highlighted next.</li>
</ul>


Welcome to Curator’s Cut - a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,500+ insights shared on Smartkarma.
In this cut, we spotlight the shifting sentiment towards Indian equities, highlight the investable universe in Singapore around data centres, and draw attention to the gaming industry across continents.
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you'd like to see highlighted next.


Curator's Cut: Sentiment Shifts in India, Racking Up in Singapore & Gaming Across Borders

Quality-first, Business-perspective, Long-term, Urbem (HK) Limited

Urbem Capital

Quality-first, Business-perspective, Long-term

Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy

Urbem (HK) Limited

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Our 2022 earnings thesis largely worked: FY12/2021-FY12/2025 profit compounded about 15% annually while adjusted EBITDA margins remained above 66%.</li>
<li>What we underestimated was regulatory and geographic complexity: by Q2 FY12/2026, only 49% of revenue was classified as regulated by player IP.</li>
<li>The next phase depends on renewed organic growth, better regulated-market monetization, and whether large buybacks can convert resilient cash generation into stronger per-share compounding.</li>
</ul>


Our 2022 earnings thesis largely worked: FY12/2021-FY12/2025 profit compounded about 15% annually while adjusted EBITDA margins remained above 66%.
What we underestimated was regulatory and geographic complexity: by Q2 FY12/2026, only 49% of revenue was classified as regulated by player IP.
The next phase depends on renewed organic growth, better regulated-market monetization, and whether large buybacks can convert resilient cash generation into stronger per-share compounding.


Evolution Four Years Later: The Earnings Thesis Worked. The Multiple Did Not.

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>Candle Lake’s SEK695 mandatory offer sits below market and has no minimum acceptance threshold, making tender levels less important than the ownership structure that follows.</li>
<li>Evolution’s buybacks have already lifted Candle Lake’s voting interest to 31.56% and could push it materially higher without requiring further purchases by Kenneth Dart.</li>
<li>At 8.7x NTM EBITDA and 11.4x earnings, we see Evolution as a fundamental long with ownership optionality rather than a conventional merger-arbitrage trade.</li>
</ul>


Candle Lake’s SEK695 mandatory offer sits below market and has no minimum acceptance threshold, making tender levels less important than the ownership structure that follows.
Evolution’s buybacks have already lifted Candle Lake’s voting interest to 31.56% and could push it materially higher without requiring further purchases by Kenneth Dart.
At 8.7x NTM EBITDA and 11.4x earnings, we see Evolution as a fundamental long with ownership optionality rather than a conventional merger-arbitrage trade.


Candle Lake / Evolution: The Long Game After 30%

Research from Redeye, Redeye AB

Redeye

Research from Redeye

Redeye AB

Specialists in innovative and fast-growing Nordic companies within Life Science and Technology.

Redeye is the next generation equity research and investment banking company, specialized in Life Science and Technology. We are the leading provider of Corporate Broking and Corporate Finance in these sectors.

Our clients are innovative growth companies in the Nordics and we use a unique Rating model based on a value based investment philosophy. Redeye was founded 1999 in Stockholm and is regulated by the Swedish Financial Authority (Finansinspektionen).

<ul><li>Redeye comments on Kenneth Dart's increased ownership in Evolution, having formally exceeded 30% of the voting rights and potentially triggering a mandatory bid obligation under Swedish takeover rules.</li><li>While this has no impact on our estimates or Fair Value, we view the development as positive for sentiment and believe it could increase pressure on short sellers to cover their positions.</li></ul>

Redeye comments on Kenneth Dart's increased ownership in Evolution, having formally exceeded 30% of the voting rights and potentially triggering a mandatory bid obligation under Swedish takeover rules.While this has no impact on our estimates or Fair Value, we view the development as positive for sentiment and believe it could increase pressure on short sellers to cover their positions.

Evolution: Comment on Dart passing the 30% ownership threshold

<ul><li>Redeye updates on Evolution post Q2-results which were largely in line with expectations.</li><li>While Europe saw some positive development in the quarter, performance in Asia was somewhat soft and the outlook for the two regions remains unclear.</li><li>Americas and RoW continues to perform strong however, and overall we have made limited changes to our forecasts.</li></ul>

Redeye updates on Evolution post Q2-results which were largely in line with expectations.While Europe saw some positive development in the quarter, performance in Asia was somewhat soft and the outlook for the two regions remains unclear.Americas and RoW continues to perform strong however, and overall we have made limited changes to our forecasts.

Evolution (Q2 Review): Stable quarter, outlook for Europe and Asia remains unclear

Sweden

Evolution AB operates as a gaming company. The Company develops, produces, markets and licenses fully integrated B2B live casino solutions to online casino operators. Evolution serves customers worldwide.

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Evolution (EVO SS)

Curator's Cut: Sentiment Shifts in India, Racking Up in Singapore & Gaming Across Borders

This Curator's Cut highlights changing sentiment in Indian equities, Singapore data centres, and global gaming industry. Share your theme...

Pranav Rao

Evolution Four Years Later: The Earnings Thesis Worked. The Multiple Did Not.

Four years after our 2022 Evolution thesis, earnings broadly delivered as expected, but regulation, player geography and valuation exposed what the...

Urbem Capital

Candle Lake / Evolution: The Long Game After 30%

SEK695 is unlikely to attract many tenders. With Candle Lake now above 30%, Evolution’s buybacks and Dart’s next move are more relevant than the...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Evolution: Comment on Dart passing the 30% ownership threshold

Redeye comments on Kenneth Dart's increased ownership in Evolution, having formally exceeded 30% of the voting rights and potentially triggering a...

Redeye

Evolution (Q2 Review): Stable quarter, outlook for Europe and Asia remains unclear

Redeye updates on Evolution post Q2-results which were largely in line with expectations. While Europe saw some positive development in the...

Redeye

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Curator's Cut: Sentiment Shifts in India, Racking Up in Singapore & Gaming Across Borders

​This Curator's Cut highlights changing sentiment in Indian equities, Singapore data centres, and global gaming industry. Share your theme...

Pranav Rao

Evolution Four Years Later: The Earnings Thesis Worked. The Multiple Did Not.

Four years after our 2022 Evolution thesis, earnings broadly delivered as expected, but regulation, player geography and valuation exposed what the...

Urbem Capital

Candle Lake / Evolution: The Long Game After 30%

SEK695 is unlikely to attract many tenders. With Candle Lake now above 30%, Evolution’s buybacks and Dart’s next move are more relevant than the...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Evolution: Comment on Dart passing the 30% ownership threshold

Redeye comments on Kenneth Dart's increased ownership in Evolution, having formally exceeded 30% of the voting rights and potentially triggering a...

Redeye

Evolution (Q2 Review): Stable quarter, outlook for Europe and Asia remains unclear

Redeye updates on Evolution post Q2-results which were largely in line with expectations. While Europe saw some positive development in the...

Redeye

This Curator's Cut highlights changing sentiment in Indian equities, Singapore data centres, and global gaming industry. Share your theme...