Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>8 days ago I wrote Murakami-san upped his stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/exedy-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6516:1" rel="noopener">Exedy Corp (7278 JP)</a> to 23.5%, could buy more into earnings, and earnings could deliver a buyback. That was ¥3495/3600.</li>
<li>He bought more, reported 24.72% as of 22-Oct). I bet he reports more in a week. Also, Exedy today reported a small yoy gain in H1 revenue. OP+76%yoy. NP+17%yoy.</li>
<li>The company also reported a BIG div hike to ¥200/yr and a giant ¥30bn buyback. Activists and Murakami hangers-on have won. So watch out! The playbook is different than expected.</li>
</ul>


8 days ago I wrote Murakami-san upped his stake in Exedy Corp (7278 JP) to 23.5%, could buy more into earnings, and earnings could deliver a buyback. That was ¥3495/3600.
He bought more, reported 24.72% as of 22-Oct). I bet he reports more in a week. Also, Exedy today reported a small yoy gain in H1 revenue. OP+76%yoy. NP+17%yoy.
The company also reported a BIG div hike to ¥200/yr and a giant ¥30bn buyback. Activists and Murakami hangers-on have won. So watch out! The playbook is different than expected.


[JAPAN ACTIVISM] Exedy (7278) - You Won, BIG Capital Payout, Murakami Up. Now Watch Out!

<ul>
<li>Last September in the release of its new Mid-Term Management Plan, Toyota Group member <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aisin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11809:1" rel="noopener">Aisin (7259 JP)</a> announced a plan to cut cross-holdings to zero. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jtekt-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12197:1" rel="noopener">JTEKT Corp (6473 JP)</a> followed suit.</li>
<li>It started with a selldown of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/denso-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18703:1" rel="noopener">Denso Corp (6902 JP)</a>, then <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>, now <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/big-aisin-7259-offering-sets-stage-for-first-toyota-group-full-unwind" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Aisin</a>. Last FY, Toyota Group cos reduced crossholdings by ¥870bn. This year will be more.</li>
<li>Attached below is a general breakdown of Toyota Group cross-holdings, discussion of cross-holding policies, and analysis of what is next, and what is not.</li>
</ul>


Last September in the release of its new Mid-Term Management Plan, Toyota Group member Aisin (7259 JP) announced a plan to cut cross-holdings to zero. JTEKT Corp (6473 JP) followed suit.
It started with a selldown of Denso Corp (6902 JP), then Toyota Industries (6201 JP), now Aisin. Last FY, Toyota Group cos reduced crossholdings by ¥870bn. This year will be more.
Attached below is a general breakdown of Toyota Group cross-holdings, discussion of cross-holding policies, and analysis of what is next, and what is not.


Toyota Group Cross-Holding Structure Primer - Holdings, Unwind Progress, Buyback Policies, Etc

<ul>
<li>Late May, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aisin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11809:1" rel="noopener">Aisin (7259 JP)</a> announced a sell-down of its 34% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/exedy-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6516:1" rel="noopener">Exedy Corp (7278 JP)</a> - a big non-dilutive offering, pricing 11% below undisturbed. Exedy announced a buyback.</li>
<li>Announced on the 27th of May, shares fell sharply the next day, it priced on the 3rd, and offering shares traded on the 10th. Then the price started climbing back.</li>
<li>My <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cash-rich-exedy-7278-sees-huge-offering-offset-by-huge-buyback-watch-for-short-term-games" target="_blank" rel="noopener">first</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/exedy-7278-huge-offering-resized-watch-the-dynamics-here" target="_blank" rel="noopener">second</a> pieces argued that buyback accretion, index impact, and change in register shape all meant it was a buy. Activist Murakami agreed, now he has 6.5%. </li>
</ul>


Late May, Aisin (7259 JP) announced a sell-down of its 34% stake in Exedy Corp (7278 JP) - a big non-dilutive offering, pricing 11% below undisturbed. Exedy announced a buyback.
Announced on the 27th of May, shares fell sharply the next day, it priced on the 3rd, and offering shares traded on the 10th. Then the price started climbing back.
My first and second pieces argued that buyback accretion, index impact, and change in register shape all meant it was a buy. Activist Murakami agreed, now he has 6.5%. 


[JAPAN ACTIVISM] - Murakami Group Goes Activisting on Exedy (7278) - Room To Run

<ul>
<li>TSE-Listed companies are asked to file "Management Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price" awareness reports/policies. Many have. Some are still working on it. And policies change, and CGR reports are updated.</li>
<li>There were case study updates published 26 December. Interesting, but not ground-breaking. 475 companies filed CGRs in December 2025 after 262 companies filed in November.</li>
<li>The most recent set of documents has some really disappointing comments and questions from companies and their executives. It makes one wonder...</li>
</ul>


TSE-Listed companies are asked to file "Management Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price" awareness reports/policies. Many have. Some are still working on it. And policies change, and CGR reports are updated.
There were case study updates published 26 December. Interesting, but not ground-breaking. 475 companies filed CGRs in December 2025 after 262 companies filed in November.
The most recent set of documents has some really disappointing comments and questions from companies and their executives. It makes one wonder...


[Japan CorpGov] TSE "Mgmt Conscious" Reports (Jan26) - Disappointing Set of Case Studies

<ul>
<li>A few years ago, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/resonac-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1496:1" rel="noopener">Resonac Holdings (4004 JP)</a> announced it would consider spinning off its petrochemicals business.</li>
<li>This summer it announced it would happen, and on 7 September it got TSE approval for a spinoff 1 October 2026. Shares start trading on 29 September. </li>
<li>On Friday, the reference price for listing was announced at ¥200/share. Day 1 will mean significant index flows, and thoughts of what is to come.</li>
</ul>


A few years ago, Resonac Holdings (4004 JP) announced it would consider spinning off its petrochemicals business.
This summer it announced it would happen, and on 7 September it got TSE approval for a spinoff 1 October 2026. Shares start trading on 29 September. 
On Friday, the reference price for listing was announced at ¥200/share. Day 1 will mean significant index flows, and thoughts of what is to come.


[Japan Event] The Crasus Chemical (646A) Spinoff - Details, Valuation, Flows

Japan

EXEDY Corporation manufactures drivetrain products for automobiles, industrial vehicles, and construction machinery.  The Company's products include manual clutches, torque converters, power shift transmissions, and hydraulic clutches. Exedy has its subsidiaries in South Korea, Australia, the US and the UK.

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Exedy Corp (7278 JP)

[JAPAN ACTIVISM] Exedy (7278) - You Won, BIG Capital Payout, Murakami Up. Now Watch Out!

Exedy (7278) Earnings were OK/decent. Murakami-san has gone to 24.7%. We have a sharply higher dividend payout and policy, and a HUGE buyback....

Travis Lundy

Toyota Group Cross-Holding Structure Primer - Holdings, Unwind Progress, Buyback Policies, Etc

8mos past the first large Toyota Group selldown in Denso (i.e. past lockup). Others have followed since. Toyota Inds and Toyota R.E. have ¥600bn to...

Travis Lundy

[JAPAN ACTIVISM] - Murakami Group Goes Activisting on Exedy (7278) - Room To Run

The Murakami Group has now bought 10.1% of Exedy (7278). Interestingly, NOMURA Aya bought another 1.18% on 14 June to get to 9.59%, then sold 6.79%...

Travis Lundy

[Japan CorpGov] TSE "Mgmt Conscious" Reports (Jan26) - Disappointing Set of Case Studies

The TSE's "Management Conscious of Capital Costs and Share Price" filings continue. 475 CorpGovReports filed in December. Exedy has a new plan. TSE...

Travis Lundy

[Japan Event] The Crasus Chemical (646A) Spinoff - Details, Valuation, Flows

The Crasus Chemical spin off arrives in 8 days. The stock lists on 29 September. The reference price comes out at what appears to be <0.7x book and...

Travis Lundy

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