Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and we will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 6028-6059.</li>
<li>Shorter-Term, the SPX violated its 3.5-month uptrend yesterday, but managed to rally back to the breakdown level by yesterday's close. </li>
<li>We would not yet call this a decisive breakdown, and we are on the lookout for a potential reclaim back above this uptrend at the 6425-3430 level. Or consolidation?</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and we will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 6028-6059.
Shorter-Term, the SPX violated its 3.5-month uptrend yesterday, but managed to rally back to the breakdown level by yesterday's close. 
We would not yet call this a decisive breakdown, and we are on the lookout for a potential reclaim back above this uptrend at the 6425-3430 level. Or consolidation?


Downgrading Staples to Underweight; New Leaders Still Leading As Prior Leaders Consolidate

<ul>
<li>The SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) continue to hold above short-term support at their respective 20-day MAs (currently 5966 on SPX, $526.50 on QQQ, $208.75 on IWM)</li>
<li>As long as 20-day MA supports hold, our near-term bullish outlook that we have had since our 4/22/25 Compass remains intact.</li>
<li>We will need to see breakdowns below 20-day MA supports in order to expect any meaningful near-term downside.</li>
</ul>


The SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) continue to hold above short-term support at their respective 20-day MAs (currently 5966 on SPX, $526.50 on QQQ, $208.75 on IWM)
As long as 20-day MA supports hold, our near-term bullish outlook that we have had since our 4/22/25 Compass remains intact.
We will need to see breakdowns below 20-day MA supports in order to expect any meaningful near-term downside.


20-Day MA Supports Holding on SPX, QQQ, IWM; Bullish Outlook Intact

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Capital Markets

Ligent Technologies / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Ligent Technologies (9856 HK), a leading optical transceiver and chip maker serving the data center market, will IPO on September 22nd.  The company will raise HK$5.67 billion.</li>
<li>The optical transceiver market is projected to grow at a 40.6% revenue CAGR from 2025–2030, driven by adoption of 800G/1.6T modules in AI data centers.</li>
<li>Although the US is reportedly considering a ban on imports of new models of Chinese optical transceivers, expanding capacity for US-based transceiver companies would take years and significant capital.</li>
</ul>


Ligent Technologies (9856 HK), a leading optical transceiver and chip maker serving the data center market, will IPO on September 22nd.  The company will raise HK$5.67 billion.
The optical transceiver market is projected to grow at a 40.6% revenue CAGR from 2025–2030, driven by adoption of 800G/1.6T modules in AI data centers.
Although the US is reportedly considering a ban on imports of new models of Chinese optical transceivers, expanding capacity for US-based transceiver companies would take years and significant capital.


HONG KONG IPO WATCH: Ligent Technologies - Connecting AI Globally

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Eoptolink Technology   / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eoptolink-technology-inc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29558:1" rel="noopener">Eoptolink Technology (300502 CH)</a> one of the world’s largest optical transceiver manufacturers, aims to raise over &gt;US$3bn in its H-share listing.</li>
<li>Eoptolink was one of the global leaders in 2025 in optical modules, with its products being in high demand for data centers.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company’s past performance and undertaken a peer comparison in our earlier note. In this note, we will talk about valuations.</li>
</ul>



Eoptolink Technology (300502 CH) one of the world’s largest optical transceiver manufacturers, aims to raise over &gt;US$3bn in its H-share listing.
Eoptolink was one of the global leaders in 2025 in optical modules, with its products being in high demand for data centers.
We have looked at the company’s past performance and undertaken a peer comparison in our earlier note. In this note, we will talk about valuations.


Aequitas: Eoptolink A/H Listing - Thoughts on Valuations

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eoptolink-technology-inc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29558:1" rel="noopener">Eoptolink Technology (300502 CH)</a> one of the world’s largest optical transceiver manufacturers, aims to raise over &gt;US$3bn in its H-share listing.</li>
<li>Eoptolink was one of the global leaders in 2025 in optical modules, with its products being in high demand for data centers.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier note. In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison.</li>
</ul>



Eoptolink Technology (300502 CH) one of the world’s largest optical transceiver manufacturers, aims to raise over &gt;US$3bn in its H-share listing.
Eoptolink was one of the global leaders in 2025 in optical modules, with its products being in high demand for data centers.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier note. In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison.


Aequitas: Eoptolink A/H Listing - Peer Comparison - Catching Up

Cayman Islands

Fabrinet is a specialized Electronics Manufacturing Services (EMS) company that provides advanced optical packaging and precision optical, electro-mechanical, and electronic manufacturing services to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). The company focuses on complex, quality-critical production, including optical communication components, industrial lasers, automotive components, medical devices, and sensors. Fabrinet was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Pathumthani, Thailand.

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Fabrinet (FN US)

Downgrading Staples to Underweight; New Leaders Still Leading As Prior Leaders Consolidate

Downgrading Staples $XLP to Underweight; New Leaders Still Leading While Prior Leaders Consolidate; $SMH Above $280, 10-yr Treasury yield below key...

Vermilion Research

20-Day MA Supports Holding on SPX, QQQ, IWM; Bullish Outlook Intact

20-Day MA Supports Holding on $SPX, $QQQ, and $IWM. As long as 20-day MA supports hold, our near-term bullish outlook that we have had since our 4...

Vermilion Research

HONG KONG IPO WATCH: Ligent Technologies - Connecting AI Globally

Ligent Technologies (9856 HK), a leading optical transceiver and chip maker serving the data center market, will IPO on September 22nd. The...

David Mudd

Aequitas: Eoptolink A/H Listing - Thoughts on Valuations

Eoptolink Technology (300502 CH) one of the world’s largest optical transceiver manufacturers, aims to raise over >US$3bn in its H-share listing....

Sumeet Singh

Aequitas: Eoptolink A/H Listing - Peer Comparison - Catching Up

Eoptolink Technology (300502 CH) one of the world’s largest optical transceiver manufacturers, aims to raise over >US$3bn in its H-share listing....

Sumeet Singh

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