Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish, and since late-December we have been suggesting to use the pullback as a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>Most recent/highest conviction "buy-the-dip" call came last week (1/14/25) amid all major indexes testing supports (SPX, QQQ, DJI, IJH, VXF, IWM, ARKK, SMH), bullish breadth divergences, other ongoing bullish signals.</li>
<li>Those dip buys are finally paying off, with all these indexes breaking out from 1+month consolidations. The SPX has gapped-up on four of past five trading days, indicating significant strength</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish, and since late-December we have been suggesting to use the pullback as a buying opportunity.
Most recent/highest conviction "buy-the-dip" call came last week (1/14/25) amid all major indexes testing supports (SPX, QQQ, DJI, IJH, VXF, IWM, ARKK, SMH), bullish breadth divergences, other ongoing bullish signals.
Those dip buys are finally paying off, with all these indexes breaking out from 1+month consolidations. The SPX has gapped-up on four of past five trading days, indicating significant strength


Local Tops for 10-Year Treasury Yield, DXY, and Crude Oil; All Major Indexes Breaking Out. Bullish

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>The February PPI report is anticipated to show a MoM rise of +0.3% and a YoY increase of +1.1% (compared to January's +0.3% MoM and +0.9% YoY).</li><li>The consensus expects better growth of +0.8% MoM and +1% YoY (vs. January at 0.8% MoM and +0.6% YoY).</li><li>We recommend stocks with positive news stories: TACC, ICHI, and BCP.</li></ul>

The February PPI report is anticipated to show a MoM rise of +0.3% and a YoY increase of +1.1% (compared to January's +0.3% MoM and +0.9% YoY).The consensus expects better growth of +0.8% MoM and +1% YoY (vs. January at 0.8% MoM and +0.6% YoY).We recommend stocks with positive news stories: TACC, ICHI, and BCP.

Keep a Close Watch on US PPI and Retail Sales

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Welcome to this week’s earnings. My spark notes are the NXPI and IFX did better than I feared, but I continue to be unconstructive on automotive.</li><li>Fabrinet and Coherent both achieved good results, but Fabrinet disappointed expectations for Nvidia's pluggable revenue. Is this a weak read-through? Unlikely. Marvell should have an amazing year if Coherent’s TAM is remotely correct.</li><li>MKSI put up the exact results I was looking for, and this continues to be my favorite idea. As WFE increases, inventory builds will happen, and then financial and operational leverage will take care of the rest.</li></ul>

Welcome to this week’s earnings. My spark notes are the NXPI and IFX did better than I feared, but I continue to be unconstructive on automotive.Fabrinet and Coherent both achieved good results, but Fabrinet disappointed expectations for Nvidia's pluggable revenue. Is this a weak read-through? Unlikely. Marvell should have an amazing year if Coherent’s TAM is remotely correct.MKSI put up the exact results I was looking for, and this continues to be my favorite idea. As WFE increases, inventory builds will happen, and then financial and operational leverage will take care of the rest.

Automotive (NXPI, IFX) Optics (FN, COHR), MKSI, MPWR, ACLS, SLAB, RMBS, ARM

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>If we consider 2023 as a banner year for AI technology, 2024 is set to be another solid year for both infrastructure investments and downstream demand continue to thrive.</li><li>We reaffirm our positive stance on optical transceiver players, specifically in light of their ongoing capacity expansion and production ramp-up of the high data rate optical modules, e.g., 400G/800G products.</li><li>Among those players we favor Innolight (300308 CH, BUY) and TFC (300394 CH, NR), both of which have leveraged the AI wave effectively through 2023 and stayed on strong trajectory into 2024. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

If we consider 2023 as a banner year for AI technology, 2024 is set to be another solid year for both infrastructure investments and downstream demand continue to thrive.We reaffirm our positive stance on optical transceiver players, specifically in light of their ongoing capacity expansion and production ramp-up of the high data rate optical modules, e.g., 400G/800G products.Among those players we favor Innolight (300308 CH, BUY) and TFC (300394 CH, NR), both of which have leveraged the AI wave effectively through 2023 and stayed on strong trajectory into 2024. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Semi – Market Outlook on Optical Transceivers

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to increase, with the resistance at 1,380/1,385 points (5/10-day EMA) and the support at 1,366 points (this year's low)/1,355 points.</li><li>The market mostly expects the Fed to maintain the policy interest rate at 5.5%.</li><li>We expect the Fed to raise its 2023E GDP growth projection from +2.1% YoY previously to +2.6% YoY due to the stronger-than-expected US economy, with 9M23 GDP growth of +3.0% YoY (1Q23 at +2.0% QoQ, 2Q23 at +2.1% QoQ and 3Q23 at +5.2% QoQ).</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to increase, with the resistance at 1,380/1,385 points (5/10-day EMA) and the support at 1,366 points (this year's low)/1,355 points.The market mostly expects the Fed to maintain the policy interest rate at 5.5%.We expect the Fed to raise its 2023E GDP growth projection from +2.1% YoY previously to +2.6% YoY due to the stronger-than-expected US economy, with 9M23 GDP growth of +3.0% YoY (1Q23 at +2.0% QoQ, 2Q23 at +2.1% QoQ and 3Q23 at +5.2% QoQ).

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. December 13, 2023

Cayman Islands

Fabrinet is a specialized Electronics Manufacturing Services (EMS) company that provides advanced optical packaging and precision optical, electro-mechanical, and electronic manufacturing services to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). The company focuses on complex, quality-critical production, including optical communication components, industrial lasers, automotive components, medical devices, and sensors. Fabrinet was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Pathumthani, Thailand.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Fabrinet (FN US)

Local Tops for 10-Year Treasury Yield, DXY, and Crude Oil; All Major Indexes Breaking Out. Bullish

Local Tops for 10-Yr Treasury Yield $TNX, U.S. Dollar $DXY, & WTI Crude Oil $CL_F, Now Tailwinds for Equities; All Major Indexes We Discussed...

Vermilion Research

Keep a Close Watch on US PPI and Retail Sales

The February PPI report is anticipated to show a MoM rise of +0.3% and a YoY increase of +1.1% (compared to January's +0.3% MoM and +0.9%...

Krungthai XSpring

Automotive (NXPI, IFX) Optics (FN, COHR), MKSI, MPWR, ACLS, SLAB, RMBS, ARM

Welcome to this week’s earnings. My spark notes are the NXPI and IFX did better than I feared, but I continue to be unconstructive on automotive...

Fabricated Knowledge

Semi – Market Outlook on Optical Transceivers

If we consider 2023 as a banner year for AI technology, 2024 is set to be another solid year for both infrastructure investments and downstream...

CMB International

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. December 13, 2023

Technically, the SET Index is expected to increase, with the resistance at 1,380/1,385 points (5/10-day EMA) and the support at 1,366 points (this...

Krungthai XSpring

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)