Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Meta Platforms, Inc. concluded its fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025 on a high note, reporting substantial engagement across its platforms, with over 3.5 billion daily active users utilizing its family of apps.</li><li>The company’s revenue for Q4 was $59.9 billion, a robust 24% increase year-over-year, buoyed by a 24% rise in ad revenue, attributable to increased advertiser demand and a 6% uptick in ad pricing.</li><li>However, Reality Labs, focusing on augmented and virtual reality, experienced a 12% dip in revenue, reflecting the complexities of this burgeoning sector.</li></ul>

Meta Platforms, Inc. concluded its fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025 on a high note, reporting substantial engagement across its platforms, with over 3.5 billion daily active users utilizing its family of apps.The company’s revenue for Q4 was $59.9 billion, a robust 24% increase year-over-year, buoyed by a 24% rise in ad revenue, attributable to increased advertiser demand and a 6% uptick in ad pricing.However, Reality Labs, focusing on augmented and virtual reality, experienced a 12% dip in revenue, reflecting the complexities of this burgeoning sector.

Meta’s Earnings & The Manus Acquisition: A Quiet Bet on Integrated Business Tools That Could Reshape Its Revenue Mix!

Mostly Borrowed Ideas Deep Dives, MBI Deep Dives

MBI Deep Dives

Mostly Borrowed Ideas Deep Dives

MBI is the abbreviation for “Mostly Borrowed Ideas”. Why “Mostly Borrowed Ideas?” As a generalist, I do not have a background in any particular sector. I enjoy navigating across industries, businesses, and countries to learn, understand, and connect the dots. In any case, most ideas and innovations are incremental in nature. Very few of us are smart enough to come up with truly original or groundbreaking ideas. I am Abdullah Al-Rezwan. I was born and brought up in Bangladesh. I went to University of Dhaka for my undergrad and majored in Finance. After working three and half years in Equity Research (Sell-side) covering Financial Sector in Bangladesh, I left Bangladesh to pursue my MBA in the US. I graduated within top 10% of the class from Cornell University's two-year MBA program and worked on the buy-side following my graduation. During my time at Cornell, I won two stock pitch competitions and also became finalists in four other competitions. I thoroughly enjoyed my stint as a generalist in the US large cap team at Madison Investments and covered a wide range of companies from UnitedHealth to Amazon and Boeing before US immigration reality paused my career in investment management. As my work authorization expired, I moved to Canada in January, 2021. Then in early 2022, I was able to return to the US.

<ul><li>Admittedly, I was confused looking at the initial reaction of Meta’s earnings when the stock went down. Mr. Market promptly corrected its “mistake” later.</li><li>One of the reasons I think some may have reacted negatively is the ever burgeoning capex outlook by Meta which inevitably exerts pressure on FCF.</li><li>I suspect a good fraction of investor base has a very mechanical understanding of FCF i.e. they understand that more FCF is better, but what many seem to find relatively harder to internalize is if a company has rich reinvestment opportunity, the optimal FCF should be as low as possible, especially if you have a strong balance sheet.</li></ul>

Admittedly, I was confused looking at the initial reaction of Meta’s earnings when the stock went down. Mr. Market promptly corrected its “mistake” later.One of the reasons I think some may have reacted negatively is the ever burgeoning capex outlook by Meta which inevitably exerts pressure on FCF.I suspect a good fraction of investor base has a very mechanical understanding of FCF i.e. they understand that more FCF is better, but what many seem to find relatively harder to internalize is if a company has rich reinvestment opportunity, the optimal FCF should be as low as possible, especially if you have a strong balance sheet.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Meta announced 4Q25 results: total revenue increased by 24% YoY to US$59.9bn and net income grew by 9% YoY to US$22.8bn, 3% and 8% ahead of Bloomberg consensus estimates, as AI continues to drive solid ad revenue growth.</li><li>Management expected the strong momentum to sustain and guided total revenue to increase by 26-34% YoY to US$53.5-56.5bn in 1Q26, which is also ahead of consensus estimate (US$51.3bn).</li><li>Management guided FY26 total expenses to be US$162-169bn (+38-44% YoY) mainly due to the increase in infra costs and employee compensation, but still expected positive operating income growth in FY26. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Meta announced 4Q25 results: total revenue increased by 24% YoY to US$59.9bn and net income grew by 9% YoY to US$22.8bn, 3% and 8% ahead of Bloomberg consensus estimates, as AI continues to drive solid ad revenue growth.Management expected the strong momentum to sustain and guided total revenue to increase by 26-34% YoY to US$53.5-56.5bn in 1Q26, which is also ahead of consensus estimate (US$51.3bn).Management guided FY26 total expenses to be US$162-169bn (+38-44% YoY) mainly due to the increase in infra costs and employee compensation, but still expected positive operating income growth in FY26. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Meta (META US) - 4Q25 Results Beat; AI Continues to Drive Ad Business Growth

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>Short note on Capex (going ballistic), revenue growth (accelerating), margins resilient (so far) but CFO pointed to margins erosion in 2026. </li>
<li>Revenue growth is accelerating (2025 22%, 1Q26 30%) but OPEX will increase by ~40% in 2026. CFO says that Operating Profits will increase YoY but implies that Operating Margins decline. </li>
<li>Calculations below. 30% revenue growth will lead to “only” 15% growth in Operating Profits in 2026. The stock is trading at 22x 2026 EPS, average valuation. </li>
</ul>


Short note on Capex (going ballistic), revenue growth (accelerating), margins resilient (so far) but CFO pointed to margins erosion in 2026. 
Revenue growth is accelerating (2025 22%, 1Q26 30%) but OPEX will increase by ~40% in 2026. CFO says that Operating Profits will increase YoY but implies that Operating Margins decline. 
Calculations below. 30% revenue growth will lead to “only” 15% growth in Operating Profits in 2026. The stock is trading at 22x 2026 EPS, average valuation. 


Meta: Higher Capex, Higher Growth, Margins Holding up for Now. But CFO Gave Us 2 Warnings.

<ul><li>Meta just hit a breaking point in its metaverse dream.</li><li>After racking up nearly $73 billion in cumulative losses since 2021 through its Reality Labs division, the tech giant is finally hitting pause.</li><li>The most recent gut check?</li></ul>

Meta just hit a breaking point in its metaverse dream.After racking up nearly $73 billion in cumulative losses since 2021 through its Reality Labs division, the tech giant is finally hitting pause.The most recent gut check?

Meta Metaverse Layoffs 2026: Inside the $73 Billion Reality Labs Meltdown!

United States

Meta Platforms Inc. operates as a social technology company. The Company builds applications and technologies that help people connect, find communities, and grow businesses. meta Platform is also involved in advertisements, augmented and virtual reality.

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Meta (META US)

Meta’s Earnings & The Manus Acquisition: A Quiet Bet on Integrated Business Tools That Could Reshape Its Revenue Mix!

Meta Platforms, Inc. concluded its fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025 on a high note, reporting substantial engagement across its platforms, with...

Baptista Research

Meta 4Q'25 Update

Admittedly, I was confused looking at the initial reaction of Meta’s earnings when the stock went down. Mr. Market promptly corrected its “mistake”...

MBI Deep Dives

Meta (META US) - 4Q25 Results Beat; AI Continues to Drive Ad Business Growth

Meta announced 4Q25 results: total revenue increased by 24% YoY to US$59.9bn and net income grew by 9% YoY to US$22.8bn, 3% and 8% ahead of...

CMB International

Meta: Higher Capex, Higher Growth, Margins Holding up for Now. But CFO Gave Us 2 Warnings.

Capex soaring, revenue growing, margins holding but CFO warns of margin erosion in 2026. Operating profits to rise but margins likely to decline....

Nicolas Baratte

Meta Metaverse Layoffs 2026: Inside the $73 Billion Reality Labs Meltdown!

Meta just hit a breaking point in its metaverse dream. After racking up nearly $73 billion in cumulative losses since 2021 through its Reality...

Baptista Research

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52-week Range

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Meta’s Earnings & The Manus Acquisition: A Quiet Bet on Integrated Business Tools That Could Reshape Its Revenue Mix!

Meta Platforms, Inc. concluded its fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025 on a high note, reporting substantial engagement across its platforms, with...

Baptista Research

Meta 4Q'25 Update

Admittedly, I was confused looking at the initial reaction of Meta’s earnings when the stock went down. Mr. Market promptly corrected its “mistake”...

MBI Deep Dives

Meta (META US) - 4Q25 Results Beat; AI Continues to Drive Ad Business Growth

Meta announced 4Q25 results: total revenue increased by 24% YoY to US$59.9bn and net income grew by 9% YoY to US$22.8bn, 3% and 8% ahead of...

CMB International

Meta: Higher Capex, Higher Growth, Margins Holding up for Now. But CFO Gave Us 2 Warnings.

​Capex soaring, revenue growing, margins holding but CFO warns of margin erosion in 2026. Operating profits to rise but margins likely to decline....

Nicolas Baratte

Meta Metaverse Layoffs 2026: Inside the $73 Billion Reality Labs Meltdown!

Meta just hit a breaking point in its metaverse dream. After racking up nearly $73 billion in cumulative losses since 2021 through its Reality...

Baptista Research

Capex soaring, revenue growing, margins holding but CFO warns of margin erosion in 2026. Operating profits to rise but margins likely to decline....