Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Hyperscaler CapEx could be slowing down, based on 4Q24 spending</li>
<li>Microsoft made a significant cut in Q4, but Amazon, Facebook, and Alibaba all made big increases</li>
<li>Industry CapEx as a percent of revenue has slowed its growth</li>
</ul>


Hyperscaler CapEx could be slowing down, based on 4Q24 spending
Microsoft made a significant cut in Q4, but Amazon, Facebook, and Alibaba all made big increases
Industry CapEx as a percent of revenue has slowed its growth


Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>News that DeepSeek's latest AI release appears to be superior to latest OpenAI's ChatGPT in  most (if not all) of the benchmark tasks have apparently shaken markets today. </li>
<li>DeepSeek may be able to beat its competitors (including other AI developed by other US companies like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meta-platforms-inc-class-a-facebook" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1" rel="noopener">Meta Platforms (META US)</a> ), using lower cost chips and less data.</li>
<li>Tech companies like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> are falling hard (like -12%) in pre-market, and so are the US Indices. Let's see where support for reversal rallies can be found.</li>
</ul>


News that DeepSeek's latest AI release appears to be superior to latest OpenAI's ChatGPT in  most (if not all) of the benchmark tasks have apparently shaken markets today. 
DeepSeek may be able to beat its competitors (including other AI developed by other US companies like Meta Platforms (META US) ), using lower cost chips and less data.
Tech companies like NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) are falling hard (like -12%) in pre-market, and so are the US Indices. Let's see where support for reversal rallies can be found.


EQD | DeepSeek's New AI: Price Supports and Broader Implications for META, NVDA, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Smartphone 2024 small growth about +5% YoY. PC 2024 small unit growth +4%. Don’t expect much better in 2025 but the Silicon content will increase, both for processor and DRAM.</li>
<li>Lots of cuts in 2025 Semiconductor Capex. TSMC is up but Samsung, UMC, Intel down. Japan Semi Equipment association has revised down 2025 growth from 10% to 5%.</li>
<li>Cloud Capex booming. Microsoft announced US$80bn in FY25. Meta at US$60-65bn. TSMC to increase 5-3nm wafer price by 5-10%. The Ai segment of semiconductors is doing extremely well</li>
</ul>


Smartphone 2024 small growth about +5% YoY. PC 2024 small unit growth +4%. Don’t expect much better in 2025 but the Silicon content will increase, both for processor and DRAM.
Lots of cuts in 2025 Semiconductor Capex. TSMC is up but Samsung, UMC, Intel down. Japan Semi Equipment association has revised down 2025 growth from 10% to 5%.
Cloud Capex booming. Microsoft announced US$80bn in FY25. Meta at US$60-65bn. TSMC to increase 5-3nm wafer price by 5-10%. The Ai segment of semiconductors is doing extremely well


Tech News: Smartphone and PC Stabilize. Semicon Capex Cuts. Cloud Capex Up. TSMC Increasing Prices.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>The rally of the Asia Tech sector (+24% YTD) is highly concentrated in a handful of stocks. TSMC is up 64% but Samsung is down -22% YTD. </li>
<li>With the exception of AI, end-demand isn’t great. Smartphone up 8% but below 2019-21 level. PC flattish. x86 Server flattish. Telecom capex declining. Automotive electronics declining.   </li>
<li>AI is the most disruptive trend since Cloud in 2010. Years of increasing Capex are in front of us. But short-term, stocks are properly valued to rich, growth is slowing.</li>
</ul>


The rally of the Asia Tech sector (+24% YTD) is highly concentrated in a handful of stocks. TSMC is up 64% but Samsung is down -22% YTD. 
With the exception of AI, end-demand isn’t great. Smartphone up 8% but below 2019-21 level. PC flattish. x86 Server flattish. Telecom capex declining. Automotive electronics declining.   
AI is the most disruptive trend since Cloud in 2010. Years of increasing Capex are in front of us. But short-term, stocks are properly valued to rich, growth is slowing.


All Is Not Well in Tech Sector, AI Growth Slows, TSMC Expensive. Samsung, SK Hynix More Attractive.

Global TMT Analyst, Ex-PM, 30 years experience

Neil Campling

<ul>
<li>Generative AI seen through the lens of corporate earnings shows a lack of ROI or growth drivers in applications <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/broadcom-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:998:1" rel="noopener">Broadcom (AVGO US)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hewlett-packard-enterprise-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26511:1" rel="noopener">Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE US)</a>  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphabet-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33361:1" rel="noopener">Alphabet (GOOGL US)</a> </li>
<li>U.S. semi equipment restrictions to China could negatively impact Tokyo Electron, ASML results in 2025 <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asml-holding-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21097:1" rel="noopener">ASML Holding NV (ASML NA)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-electron-device-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10301:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Electron Device (2760 JP)</a> </li>
<li>Flagship global Tech conference in NYC suggests interest has picked up in global software above hardware in a notable shift</li>
</ul>


Generative AI seen through the lens of corporate earnings shows a lack of ROI or growth drivers in applications Broadcom (AVGO US)Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE US)  Alphabet (GOOGL US) 
U.S. semi equipment restrictions to China could negatively impact Tokyo Electron, ASML results in 2025 ASML Holding NV (ASML NA)Tokyo Electron Device (2760 JP) 
Flagship global Tech conference in NYC suggests interest has picked up in global software above hardware in a notable shift


Global Tech Weekly - Focus on AI, Semis, China V U.S., Software V Hardware. AI Party Ending?

United States

Meta Platforms Inc. operates as a social technology company. The Company builds applications and technologies that help people connect, find communities, and grow businesses. meta Platform is also involved in advertisements, augmented and virtual reality.

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Meta (META US)

IS AI Spending Poised to Fall?

Hyperscaler CapEx growth may be slowing as Microsoft cuts spending in Q4 while Amazon, Facebook, and Alibaba increase theirs, leading to a...

Jim Handy

EQD | DeepSeek's New AI: Price Supports and Broader Implications for META, NVDA, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100

DeepSeek's latest AI release is shaking markets, tech companies like NVDA and META are plummeting, causing US Indices to follow suit. Analysis of...

Nico Rosti

Tech News: Smartphone and PC Stabilize. Semicon Capex Cuts. Cloud Capex Up. TSMC Increasing Prices.

Smartphone and PC small growth in 2024 and 2025, but Silicon content in processors and DRAM will increase. Semiconductor Capex cuts in 2025. Cloud...

Nicolas Baratte

All Is Not Well in Tech Sector, AI Growth Slows, TSMC Expensive. Samsung, SK Hynix More Attractive.

Difficult juncture for Asia Tech. Consumer and Enterprise segments are flattish; stocks have underperformed. AI is the only growth driver, growth...

Nicolas Baratte

Global Tech Weekly - Focus on AI, Semis, China V U.S., Software V Hardware. AI Party Ending?

AI related earnings exhibit a lack of ROI or uplift. Is the AI euphoria coming to an end? More U.S. sanctions could hurt Japan & European...

Neil Campling

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

IS AI Spending Poised to Fall?

​Hyperscaler CapEx growth may be slowing as Microsoft cuts spending in Q4 while Amazon, Facebook, and Alibaba increase theirs, leading to a...

Jim Handy

EQD | DeepSeek's New AI: Price Supports and Broader Implications for META, NVDA, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100

​DeepSeek's latest AI release is shaking markets, tech companies like NVDA and META are plummeting, causing US Indices to follow suit. Analysis of...

Nico Rosti

Tech News: Smartphone and PC Stabilize. Semicon Capex Cuts. Cloud Capex Up. TSMC Increasing Prices.

​Smartphone and PC small growth in 2024 and 2025, but Silicon content in processors and DRAM will increase. Semiconductor Capex cuts in 2025. Cloud...

Nicolas Baratte

All Is Not Well in Tech Sector, AI Growth Slows, TSMC Expensive. Samsung, SK Hynix More Attractive.

Difficult juncture for ​Asia Tech. Consumer and Enterprise segments are flattish; stocks have underperformed. AI is the only growth driver, growth...

Nicolas Baratte

Global Tech Weekly - Focus on AI, Semis, China V U.S., Software V Hardware. AI Party Ending?

AI related earnings exhibit a lack of ROI or uplift. Is the AI euphoria coming to an end? More U.S. sanctions could hurt Japan & European...

Neil Campling

Hyperscaler CapEx growth may be slowing as Microsoft cuts spending in Q4 while Amazon, Facebook, and Alibaba increase theirs, leading to a...

DeepSeek's latest AI release is shaking markets, tech companies like NVDA and META are plummeting, causing US Indices to follow suit. Analysis of...

Smartphone and PC small growth in 2024 and 2025, but Silicon content in processors and DRAM will increase. Semiconductor Capex cuts in 2025. Cloud...

Difficult juncture for Asia Tech. Consumer and Enterprise segments are flattish; stocks have underperformed. AI is the only growth driver, growth...