Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Meta Platforms is making headlines once again with its latest overhaul of content moderation policies, signaling a significant shift in how the social media giant manages user interactions and information dissemination.</li><li>In a bold move, Meta announced the elimination of its third-party fact-checking program, aiming to "restore free expression" by adopting a crowdsourced "Community Notes" model akin to Elon Musk’s X platform.</li><li>CEO Mark Zuckerberg emphasized that the previous system was "too politically biased" and eroded trust, particularly in the United States.</li></ul>

Meta Platforms is making headlines once again with its latest overhaul of content moderation policies, signaling a significant shift in how the social media giant manages user interactions and information dissemination.In a bold move, Meta announced the elimination of its third-party fact-checking program, aiming to "restore free expression" by adopting a crowdsourced "Community Notes" model akin to Elon Musk’s X platform.CEO Mark Zuckerberg emphasized that the previous system was "too politically biased" and eroded trust, particularly in the United States.

Meta's New Moderation Strategy: A Trump-Friendly Game Changer?

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>Hyperscalers (AMZN, GOOG, META, MSFT) revenues accelerating from 1Q25. Total revenues in 2025 ~$1.15tn, up 17% YoY.</li>
<li>Cloud (AWS, GOOG, MSFT) revenues accelerating. 2025 Cloud revenues in 2025 ~$375bn, up 25% YoY.</li>
<li>2025 Capex up 63% YoY to $376bn. 2026 Capex will increase by ~46% YoY to reach ~$550bn. I estimate ~30% increase in 2027 to reach $715bn.</li>
</ul>


Hyperscalers (AMZN, GOOG, META, MSFT) revenues accelerating from 1Q25. Total revenues in 2025 ~$1.15tn, up 17% YoY.
Cloud (AWS, GOOG, MSFT) revenues accelerating. 2025 Cloud revenues in 2025 ~$375bn, up 25% YoY.
2025 Capex up 63% YoY to $376bn. 2026 Capex will increase by ~46% YoY to reach ~$550bn. I estimate ~30% increase in 2027 to reach $715bn.


Hyperscalers’ Cloud Revenue and Capex Update

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meta-platforms-inc-class-a-facebook" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1" rel="noopener">Meta (META US)</a> are both oversold according to our quantitative tactical models.</li>
<li>We have been discussing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> before, in early September, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-mobile-941-hk-tactical-outlook-as-hkbn-deal-unfolds" target="_blank" rel="noopener">we said the pattern was bearish ("brief rally then down again")</a> , <strong>but now this has changed.</strong>
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meta-platforms-inc-class-a-facebook" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1" rel="noopener">Meta (META US)</a> is a different story, looks like a <strong>bearish pattern but it is very oversold, it could rally 2 weeks before going lower.</strong>
</li>
</ul>



China Mobile (941 HK) and Meta (META US) are both oversold according to our quantitative tactical models.
We have been discussing China Mobile (941 HK) before, in early September, we said the pattern was bearish ("brief rally then down again") , but now this has changed.


Meta (META US) is a different story, looks like a bearish pattern but it is very oversold, it could rally 2 weeks before going lower.



Tactical Alert: Undervalued Stocks Poised to Rally This Week

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>There are significant deposits at banks in the US, near all time high levels, at USD17.9 trillion in the most recent week's data</li>
<li>With lower interest rates, there is less propensity to save in bank deposits, we are seeing this well with Jumbo Time Deposits</li>
<li>Against a volatile stock market it is worth keeping in mind, the incredibly high level of deposits at US banks</li>
</ul>


There are significant deposits at banks in the US, near all time high levels, at USD17.9 trillion in the most recent week's data
With lower interest rates, there is less propensity to save in bank deposits, we are seeing this well with Jumbo Time Deposits
Against a volatile stock market it is worth keeping in mind, the incredibly high level of deposits at US banks


US Stock Market - Deposits of USD17,948billion Sit in US Banks. Potential Flow to Markets.

<ul>
<li>What did hyperscalers say on Capex in March conf calls? Amazon: nothing. Google: maintained. Meta: increase. Microsoft: maintained. No Capex cuts or postponement. </li>
<li>At the opposite, Amazon and Google mention capacity constraints, revenues could be higher with more capacity. All firms mention that AI is a critical building block of future growth. </li>
<li>Financial statements show 1) improving operating margins, 2) higher capex but still higher free cash flow. Positive for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)</a> .  </li>
</ul>


What did hyperscalers say on Capex in March conf calls? Amazon: nothing. Google: maintained. Meta: increase. Microsoft: maintained. No Capex cuts or postponement. 
At the opposite, Amazon and Google mention capacity constraints, revenues could be higher with more capacity. All firms mention that AI is a critical building block of future growth. 
Financial statements show 1) improving operating margins, 2) higher capex but still higher free cash flow. Positive for NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT) .  


Hyperscale Capex Is Maintained or Increased No Cuts or Postponement Capacity Constrain at AMZN GOOG

United States

Meta Platforms Inc. operates as a social technology company. The Company builds applications and technologies that help people connect, find communities, and grow businesses. meta Platform is also involved in advertisements, augmented and virtual reality.

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Meta (META US)

Meta's New Moderation Strategy: A Trump-Friendly Game Changer?

Meta Platforms is making headlines once again with its latest overhaul of content moderation policies, signaling a significant shift in how the...

Baptista Research

Hyperscalers’ Cloud Revenue and Capex Update

Hyperscalers' revenues and cloud revenues are accelerating from 1Q25, Capex set to increase significantly in the coming years.

Nicolas Baratte

Tactical Alert: Undervalued Stocks Poised to Rally This Week

China Mobile (941 HK) and Meta (META US) are both oversold according to our quantitative models, with China Mobile showing a bullish pattern...

Nico Rosti

US Stock Market - Deposits of USD17,948billion Sit in US Banks. Potential Flow to Markets.

Deposits in US banks are now $18.4trillion. Never has it been higher. In past week these are up $122bn to 3 Sept WoW. The magnitude of this ultra...

Daniel Tabbush

Hyperscale Capex Is Maintained or Increased No Cuts or Postponement Capacity Constrain at AMZN GOOG

Hyperscalers maintain or increase Capex, mention capacity constraints. Financial statements show improving margins, higher capex and higher free...

Nicolas Baratte

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Meta's New Moderation Strategy: A Trump-Friendly Game Changer?

Meta Platforms is making headlines once again with its latest overhaul of content moderation policies, signaling a significant shift in how the...

Baptista Research

Hyperscalers’ Cloud Revenue and Capex Update

​Hyperscalers' revenues and cloud revenues are accelerating from 1Q25, Capex set to increase significantly in the coming years.

Nicolas Baratte

Tactical Alert: Undervalued Stocks Poised to Rally This Week

​China Mobile (941 HK) and Meta (META US) are both oversold according to our quantitative models, with China Mobile showing a bullish pattern...

Nico Rosti

US Stock Market - Deposits of USD17,948billion Sit in US Banks. Potential Flow to Markets.

Deposits in US banks are now $18.4trillion. Never has it been higher. In past week these are up $122bn to 3 Sept WoW. The magnitude of this ultra...

Daniel Tabbush

Hyperscale Capex Is Maintained or Increased No Cuts or Postponement Capacity Constrain at AMZN GOOG

​Hyperscalers maintain or increase Capex, mention capacity constraints. Financial statements show improving margins, higher capex and higher free...

Nicolas Baratte

Hyperscalers' revenues and cloud revenues are accelerating from 1Q25, Capex set to increase significantly in the coming years.

China Mobile (941 HK) and Meta (META US) are both oversold according to our quantitative models, with China Mobile showing a bullish pattern...

Hyperscalers maintain or increase Capex, mention capacity constraints. Financial statements show improving margins, higher capex and higher free...