Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>If you pay attention, the Internet has been a bit different lately. Many of the attributes and ways we once interacted with the internet is changing.</li><li>I probably noticed it the most when one of my favorite websites, subredditstats.com showed me this image the other day.</li><li>Reddit’s free API is closing. But so is X (formerly Twitter), and other properties all around the internet are slowly adding limits and closing their doors.</li></ul>

If you pay attention, the Internet has been a bit different lately. Many of the attributes and ways we once interacted with the internet is changing.I probably noticed it the most when one of my favorite websites, subredditstats.com showed me this image the other day.Reddit’s free API is closing. But so is X (formerly Twitter), and other properties all around the internet are slowly adding limits and closing their doors.

<ul><li>Welcome to the Halloween Earnings Edition. It's a spooky time in markets.</li><li>So far, there’s been a lot of volatility this earnings season, specifically around the Magnificent 7. Let’s discuss.</li><li>I won’t discuss each company specifically, but I will focus on the high-level capex commentary.</li></ul>

Welcome to the Halloween Earnings Edition. It's a spooky time in markets.So far, there’s been a lot of volatility this earnings season, specifically around the Magnificent 7. Let’s discuss.I won’t discuss each company specifically, but I will focus on the high-level capex commentary.

Halloween Earnings Season 🎃 (Hyperscalers, TXN, VICR, SK Hynix, KLAC, MXL, INTC, AWE, ACMR, BESI)

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We’re going thru another iteration of the “AI peak” theory, driven by Hyperscalers’ declining Free Cash Flow. Coinciding with an “AI bubble” narrative, following the April-May stock rally.  </li>
<li>Stocks aren’t expensive. Semiconductors are trading at average PEx (17.7x forward EPS), Hyperscalers at -1 standard deviation (21.1x forward EPS). No valuations bubble. Expectations bubble? Consensus forecasts look reasonable.</li>
<li>Hyperscalers’ declining Free Cash Flows is true. Increasing Debt issuance is true. Also true: Cloud revenues are accelerating, margins are expanding. Most extraordinary is the increase in Remaining Performance Obligations.</li>
</ul>


We’re going thru another iteration of the “AI peak” theory, driven by Hyperscalers’ declining Free Cash Flow. Coinciding with an “AI bubble” narrative, following the April-May stock rally.  
Stocks aren’t expensive. Semiconductors are trading at average PEx (17.7x forward EPS), Hyperscalers at -1 standard deviation (21.1x forward EPS). No valuations bubble. Expectations bubble? Consensus forecasts look reasonable.
Hyperscalers’ declining Free Cash Flows is true. Increasing Debt issuance is true. Also true: Cloud revenues are accelerating, margins are expanding. Most extraordinary is the increase in Remaining Performance Obligations.


AI Is a Bubble, Again? Stocks Aren’t Expensive. Hyperscalers’ Future Revenue Tells a Different Story

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/space-exploration-technologies-corp-spacex" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33284:1" rel="noopener">SpaceX (SPCX US)</a>, an Elon Musk led Space to AI company, aims to raise around US$75bn in its US IPO.</li>
<li>SpaceX is set to be the largest IPO ever. It will also probably end up being one of the most controversial ones given the asking valuations and other worldly promises.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the company background and its ground breaking space segment.</li>
</ul>



SpaceX (SPCX US), an Elon Musk led Space to AI company, aims to raise around US$75bn in its US IPO.
SpaceX is set to be the largest IPO ever. It will also probably end up being one of the most controversial ones given the asking valuations and other worldly promises.
In this note, we talk about the company background and its ground breaking space segment.


Aequitas: SpaceX IPO - Space - The Breakthrough Segment but with Low/No Growth

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/space-exploration-technologies-corp-spacex" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33284:1" rel="noopener">SpaceX (SPCX US)</a>, an Elon Musk led Space to AI company, aims to raise around US$75bn in its US IPO.</li>
<li>SpaceX is set to be the largest IPO ever. It will also probably end up being one of the most controversial ones given the asking valuations and other worldly promises.</li>
<li>We will undertake our more serious analysis in the coming days. This note is a lighthearted look at some of the other worldly claims and Grok’s view on SpaceX valuation.</li>
</ul>



SpaceX (SPCX US), an Elon Musk led Space to AI company, aims to raise around US$75bn in its US IPO.
SpaceX is set to be the largest IPO ever. It will also probably end up being one of the most controversial ones given the asking valuations and other worldly promises.
We will undertake our more serious analysis in the coming days. This note is a lighthearted look at some of the other worldly claims and Grok’s view on SpaceX valuation.


Aequitas: SpaceX IPO- A Lighthearted Take on Some of the Claims - Grok Speaks the Truth on Valuation

United States

Meta Platforms Inc. operates as a social technology company. The Company builds applications and technologies that help people connect, find communities, and grow businesses. meta Platform is also involved in advertisements, augmented and virtual reality.

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Meta (META US)

The Internet as You Know It Is Dying

Humans are not alone on the internet anymore. That will change the Internet as you know it. If you pay attention, the Internet has been a bit...

Fabricated Knowledge

Halloween Earnings Season 🎃 (Hyperscalers, TXN, VICR, SK Hynix, KLAC, MXL, INTC, AWE, ACMR, BESI)

Welcome to the Halloween Earnings Edition. It's a spooky time in markets. So far, there’s been a lot of volatility this earnings season,...

Fabricated Knowledge

AI Is a Bubble, Again? Stocks Aren’t Expensive. Hyperscalers’ Future Revenue Tells a Different Story

AI peak theory revisited as Hyperscalers' declining Free Cash Flow sparks "AI bubble" narrative. Valuations not bubble, expectations not inflated....

Nicolas Baratte

Aequitas: SpaceX IPO - Space - The Breakthrough Segment but with Low/No Growth

SpaceX (SPCX US), an Elon Musk led Space to AI company, aims to raise around US$75bn in its US IPO. In this note, we look at its ground breaking...

Sumeet Singh

Aequitas: SpaceX IPO- A Lighthearted Take on Some of the Claims - Grok Speaks the Truth on Valuation

SpaceX (SPCX US), an Elon Musk led Space to AI company, aims to raise around US$75bn in its US IPO. This note is a lighthearted look at some of the...

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

The Internet as You Know It Is Dying

Humans are not alone on the internet anymore. That will change the Internet as you know it. If you pay attention, the Internet has been a bit...

Fabricated Knowledge

Halloween Earnings Season 🎃 (Hyperscalers, TXN, VICR, SK Hynix, KLAC, MXL, INTC, AWE, ACMR, BESI)

Welcome to the Halloween Earnings Edition. It's a spooky time in markets. So far, there’s been a lot of volatility this earnings season,...

Fabricated Knowledge

AI Is a Bubble, Again? Stocks Aren’t Expensive. Hyperscalers’ Future Revenue Tells a Different Story

​AI peak theory revisited as Hyperscalers' declining Free Cash Flow sparks "AI bubble" narrative. Valuations not bubble, expectations not inflated....

Nicolas Baratte

Aequitas: SpaceX IPO - Space - The Breakthrough Segment but with Low/No Growth

SpaceX (SPCX US), an Elon Musk led Space to AI company, aims to raise around US$75bn in its US IPO. In this note, we look at its ground breaking...

Sumeet Singh

Aequitas: SpaceX IPO- A Lighthearted Take on Some of the Claims - Grok Speaks the Truth on Valuation

SpaceX (SPCX US), an Elon Musk led Space to AI company, aims to raise around US$75bn in its US IPO. This note is a lighthearted look at some of the...

Sumeet Singh

AI peak theory revisited as Hyperscalers' declining Free Cash Flow sparks "AI bubble" narrative. Valuations not bubble, expectations not inflated....