Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>After our global server market model update, we see 3Q23 server market decline and data center vendors' capex cut not consistent with Nvidia's robust y/y sales growth of over 200%;</li>
<li>Discrepancy: 1. Nvidia gaining value on AI server, losing zero on non AI; 2. AI servers grow at the expenses of non AI; 3. most vendors not only in server;</li>
<li>Different from  consensus view, we expect general (non AI) server market to decline 16% y/y in 2024 and 29% in 2025 and suggest to avoid general server supply chain vendors.</li>
</ul>


After our global server market model update, we see 3Q23 server market decline and data center vendors' capex cut not consistent with Nvidia's robust y/y sales growth of over 200%;
Discrepancy: 1. Nvidia gaining value on AI server, losing zero on non AI; 2. AI servers grow at the expenses of non AI; 3. most vendors not only in server;
Different from  consensus view, we expect general (non AI) server market to decline 16% y/y in 2024 and 29% in 2025 and suggest to avoid general server supply chain vendors.


What to Avoid if AI Server Will Continue to Squeeze General Server Market in 2024-2025?

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Last week the best show in semiconductors was the Maxlinear and SIMO merger news. I will catalog the entire saga and outline my thoughts on where things go.</li>
<li>Before we talk about SIMO, let’s talk about Maxlinear’s acquisitions. MaxLinear acquired an asset in April 2020 that was almost the perfect fit.</li>
<li>As Intel shed assets, <a href="https://link.sbstck.com/redirect/db2d9597-2061-468b-ba34-a12146ed7e62?j=eyJ1IjoiMmh6Z2Z6In0.muIDtmM5oyqUKBSSZiLNsipOMwhSsKSSacAB3JlN14Y" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.sbstck.com/redirect/db2d9597-2061-468b-ba34-a12146ed7e62?j%3DeyJ1IjoiMmh6Z2Z6In0.muIDtmM5oyqUKBSSZiLNsipOMwhSsKSSacAB3JlN14Y&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1691025954853000&amp;usg=AOvVaw1XwVvbW4r4yPuTojiMtbQH" rel="noopener">they sold their home gateway platform</a>, which makes the semiconductors that go in-home modems and routers.</li>
</ul>


Last week the best show in semiconductors was the Maxlinear and SIMO merger news. I will catalog the entire saga and outline my thoughts on where things go.
Before we talk about SIMO, let’s talk about Maxlinear’s acquisitions. MaxLinear acquired an asset in April 2020 that was almost the perfect fit.
As Intel shed assets, they sold their home gateway platform, which makes the semiconductors that go in-home modems and routers.


Maxlinear and Silicon Motion, Vicor and Monolithic Power and New Product Launches

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Google, Microsoft, and Facebook reported earnings.</li><li>Let’s discuss their capex plans and what that means for our new data center champion, Nvidia.</li><li>I think it’s pretty straightforward that Nvidia has revenue beats for the foreseeable future.</li></ul>

Google, Microsoft, and Facebook reported earnings.Let’s discuss their capex plans and what that means for our new data center champion, Nvidia.I think it’s pretty straightforward that Nvidia has revenue beats for the foreseeable future.

Google, Microsoft, Facebook and Nvidia: AI Spending Implications at the Hyperscalers

Mostly Borrowed Ideas Deep Dives, MBI Deep Dives

MBI Deep Dives

Mostly Borrowed Ideas Deep Dives

MBI is the abbreviation for “Mostly Borrowed Ideas”. Why “Mostly Borrowed Ideas?” As a generalist, I do not have a background in any particular sector. I enjoy navigating across industries, businesses, and countries to learn, understand, and connect the dots. In any case, most ideas and innovations are incremental in nature. Very few of us are smart enough to come up with truly original or groundbreaking ideas. I am Abdullah Al-Rezwan. I was born and brought up in Bangladesh. I went to University of Dhaka for my undergrad and majored in Finance. After working three and half years in Equity Research (Sell-side) covering Financial Sector in Bangladesh, I left Bangladesh to pursue my MBA in the US. I graduated within top 10% of the class from Cornell University's two-year MBA program and worked on the buy-side following my graduation. During my time at Cornell, I won two stock pitch competitions and also became finalists in four other competitions. I thoroughly enjoyed my stint as a generalist in the US large cap team at Madison Investments and covered a wide range of companies from UnitedHealth to Amazon and Boeing before US immigration reality paused my career in investment management. As my work authorization expired, I moved to Canada in January, 2021. Then in early 2022, I was able to return to the US.

<ul><li>During the weekend, I asked my twitter followers: What do you think Facebook's DAU to MAU ratio was in 2009?</li><li>The number that got the highest votes was ~80% even though I mentioned the most recent number was ~68%.</li><li>I asked this question a couple of friends in real life too and they too picked the ~80% number.</li></ul>

During the weekend, I asked my twitter followers: What do you think Facebook's DAU to MAU ratio was in 2009?The number that got the highest votes was ~80% even though I mentioned the most recent number was ~68%.I asked this question a couple of friends in real life too and they too picked the ~80% number.

High Conviction Concentrated Growth Investing, Fallacy Alarm

Fallacy Alarm

High Conviction Concentrated Growth Investing

High conviction concentrated growth investing. Blends single stock, macro and thematic research into powerful long and short ideas. I am convinced that a robust and comprehensive investment process requires macro and micro considerations. And it requires a deep understanding what you are looking for and what you are invested in. Digitization has changed the dynamics both how businesses operate and how investors compete for returns. Ideas can scale much faster and fail much faster than before. The biggest value creation happens before it can be spotted in financial statements. As a result, my approach can be best summarized as high conviction, high concentration growth investing, embedded into a macro framework built on the realization that our current demographic set-up, monetary paradigm and innovation cycle will likely deliver a strong decade for nominal and real returns of productive assets.

<ul><li>The commercialization of general purpose humanoid robots could be the most disruptive innovation that the next few decades have in store for us.</li><li>It would be a new computing platform that would by far surpass everything that we have seen in personal and mobile computing.</li><li>AI would be liberated from cyberspace to real space. Instead of shifting bits and bytes around, it would be moving physical objects.</li></ul>

The commercialization of general purpose humanoid robots could be the most disruptive innovation that the next few decades have in store for us.It would be a new computing platform that would by far surpass everything that we have seen in personal and mobile computing.AI would be liberated from cyberspace to real space. Instead of shifting bits and bytes around, it would be moving physical objects.

If I Wanted to Bet on Humanoids, I'd Buy Meta.

United States

Meta Platforms Inc. operates as a social technology company. The Company builds applications and technologies that help people connect, find communities, and grow businesses. meta Platform is also involved in advertisements, augmented and virtual reality.

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Meta (META US)

What to Avoid if AI Server Will Continue to Squeeze General Server Market in 2024-2025?

Names to Avoid if AI Server Will Continue to Squeeze General Server Market in 2024-2025? Different from consensus, we expect non AI server market...

Andrew Lu

Maxlinear and Silicon Motion, Vicor and Monolithic Power and New Product Launches

Maxlinear has a legal battle on it's hands, and what's the new product Vicor is talking about? Last week the best show in semiconductors was the...

Fabricated Knowledge

Google, Microsoft, Facebook and Nvidia: AI Spending Implications at the Hyperscalers

Google, Microsoft, and Facebook reported earnings. Let’s discuss their capex plans and what that means for our new data center champion, Nvidia. I...

Fabricated Knowledge

Meta's Moat

During the weekend, I asked my twitter followers: What do you think Facebook's DAU to MAU ratio was in 2009? The number that got the highest votes...

MBI Deep Dives

If I Wanted to Bet on Humanoids, I'd Buy Meta.

The commercialization of general purpose humanoid robots could be the most disruptive innovation that the next few decades have in store for us.

Fallacy Alarm

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