Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> investors are in a conundrum. The stock is doing well. With one quarter to go, the company just raised its full-year EPS target by 8.3%.</li>
<li>It also raised its H2 dividend by 20+% so the full-year div will be more than 20% higher than previously forecast and up 35+% since last year. All good. </li>
<li>Except for the selling. Potentially lots of selling. And more outperformance begets more selling. Then even more selling in 2024. And 2025? What about 2025? More outperformance begets more selling.</li>
</ul>



Fast Retailing (9983 JP) investors are in a conundrum. The stock is doing well. With one quarter to go, the company just raised its full-year EPS target by 8.3%.
It also raised its H2 dividend by 20+% so the full-year div will be more than 20% higher than previously forecast and up 35+% since last year. All good. 
Except for the selling. Potentially lots of selling. And more outperformance begets more selling. Then even more selling in 2024. And 2025? What about 2025? More outperformance begets more selling.


Fast Retailing UPs Forecasts, Which Creates A Sell/Short Opportunity

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
 Strong Q2 beat: Revenue rose 14% YoY and OP jumped 33%, driven by Japan strength and solid winter sales, offsetting China’s continued weakness.</li>
<li>
 Guidance tweak: FY business profit raised to ¥540bn, though H2 expectations effectively lowered due to anticipated US tariff impact.</li>
<li>
 US expansion continues: 69 stores now open; North America accounts for 7.5% of sales, with future margin mitigation via supply chain shifts and EU/Asia growth.</li>
</ul>



 Strong Q2 beat: Revenue rose 14% YoY and OP jumped 33%, driven by Japan strength and solid winter sales, offsetting China’s continued weakness.

 Guidance tweak: FY business profit raised to ¥540bn, though H2 expectations effectively lowered due to anticipated US tariff impact.

 US expansion continues: 69 stores now open; North America accounts for 7.5% of sales, with future margin mitigation via supply chain shifts and EU/Asia growth.


Fast Retailing (9983) | Japan Delivers as Tariffs Start to Impact

<ul>
<li>Fast Retailing (9983 JP)  is set to report its second-quarter results on April 10, and we see an opportunity to buy ahead of a strong earnings release</li>
<li>We expect Fast Retailing to post Q2 sales of ¥905bn (+15% YoY), above consensus estimates of ¥881bn. EBIT projected at ¥133bn (+21% YoY), ahead of street expectations of ¥125bn.</li>
<li>Domestic Uniqlo monthly sales and quarterly results from global peers suggest strong sales momentum. </li>
</ul>


Fast Retailing (9983 JP)  is set to report its second-quarter results on April 10, and we see an opportunity to buy ahead of a strong earnings release
We expect Fast Retailing to post Q2 sales of ¥905bn (+15% YoY), above consensus estimates of ¥881bn. EBIT projected at ¥133bn (+21% YoY), ahead of street expectations of ¥125bn.
Domestic Uniqlo monthly sales and quarterly results from global peers suggest strong sales momentum. 


Fast Retailing (9983) | Buying Opportunity Ahead of Q2 Results

Equity Derivatives Broker - Delta One Japan, Vantage Capital Markets Japan

François-Xavier Pustoc'h

Equity Derivatives Broker - Delta One Japan

Independent Financial Broker

Vantage Capital Markets Japan

We provide world class financial solutions to our extensive institutional client base including rapidly growing corporations, leading investment banks, commercial banks, asset managers, private equity funds, family offices and hedge funds.

Our services include capital market offerings and placements, wholesale brokerage and execution of cash and derivative products (both listed and OTC) across a range of asset classes.

VCM has offices in London, Hong Kong, Tokyo and Dubai from where we service our global client base. Our strength lies in the experience and quality of our teams, supported by excellent operations and infrastructure.

<ul>
<li>On January 31st, Nikkei released a note “<a href="https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/nkave/archives/news/20250131E_1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Regarding the Capping Ratio of Fast Retailing in Nikkei </a><a href="https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/nkave/archives/news/20250131E_1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">225</a>” about the change in capping ratio of Fast Retailing (9983.T) in the Nikkei 225 index.</li>
<li>As per the <a href="https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/nkave/archives/file/nikkei_stock_average_guidebook_en.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nikkei Stock Average Index Guidebook</a> (cf. below) the capping ratio will be changed from 0.9 to 0.8 from April 1st, 2025.</li>
<li>The change in the capping ratio is meant to change the weight of the shares from the current 11.18% to below the cap threshold of 10%. </li>
</ul>


On January 31st, Nikkei released a note “Regarding the Capping Ratio of Fast Retailing in Nikkei 225” about the change in capping ratio of Fast Retailing (9983.T) in the Nikkei 225 index.
As per the Nikkei Stock Average Index Guidebook (cf. below) the capping ratio will be changed from 0.9 to 0.8 from April 1st, 2025.
The change in the capping ratio is meant to change the weight of the shares from the current 11.18% to below the cap threshold of 10%. 


Capping Ratio of Fast Retailing in Nikkei 225

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>It was confirmed on Friday afternoon <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> was a single cap move, NOT a double-capping in a single Review. That limits the sell down.</li>
<li>Chemist Warehouse's reverse buyout of pharmacy wholesaler <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sigma-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15966:1" rel="noopener">Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU)</a> is now all-but complete.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takeda-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1" rel="noopener">Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)</a> announced decent results, decently upgraded guidance in both IFRS/GAAP terms and in Core/Adjusted terms (less impressive uplift in Adjusted/Analysed terms). They also announced a ¥100bn buyback.</li>
</ul>


It was confirmed on Friday afternoon Fast Retailing (9983 JP) was a single cap move, NOT a double-capping in a single Review. That limits the sell down.
Chemist Warehouse's reverse buyout of pharmacy wholesaler Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) is now all-but complete.

Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) announced decent results, decently upgraded guidance in both IFRS/GAAP terms and in Core/Adjusted terms (less impressive uplift in Adjusted/Analysed terms). They also announced a ¥100bn buyback.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Fast Retailing, Sigma, Takeda Pharmaceutical, WH Group

Japan

FAST RETAILING CO., LTD. operates a chain of clothing stores, UNIQLO, throughout Japan and in other markets overseas including UK, China, Hong Kong, South Korea, US, France, Singapore and Russia.  The Company designs, manufactures, and retails its own line of casual clothing.

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Fast Retailing (9983 JP)

Fast Retailing UPs Forecasts, Which Creates A Sell/Short Opportunity

Fast Retailing announced decent earnings for Q3 and upgraded forecasts for August 2023. It also raised its full-year dividend vs previous guidance....

Travis Lundy

Fast Retailing (9983) | Japan Delivers as Tariffs Start to Impact

Strong Q2 beat with revenue up 14% YoY and OP up 33%, driven by Japan strength and solid winter sales, offsetting China weakness. Guidance raised...

Mark Chadwick

Fast Retailing (9983) | Buying Opportunity Ahead of Q2 Results

US tariffs will negatively impact Fast's margins and demand looking out over the next 6-12 months, but less than peers like Nintendo or Toyota....

Mark Chadwick

Capping Ratio of Fast Retailing in Nikkei 225

On January 31st, Nikkei released a note “Regarding the Capping Ratio of Fast Retailing in Nikkei 225” about the change in capping ratio of Fast...

Vantage Capital Markets Japan

Last Week in Event SPACE: Fast Retailing, Sigma, Takeda Pharmaceutical, WH Group

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Fast Retailing UPs Forecasts, Which Creates A Sell/Short Opportunity

Fast Retailing announced decent earnings for Q3 and upgraded forecasts for August 2023. It also raised its full-year dividend vs previous guidance....

Travis Lundy

Fast Retailing (9983) | Japan Delivers as Tariffs Start to Impact

​Strong Q2 beat with revenue up 14% YoY and OP up 33%, driven by Japan strength and solid winter sales, offsetting China weakness. Guidance raised...

Mark Chadwick

Fast Retailing (9983) | Buying Opportunity Ahead of Q2 Results

US tariffs will negatively impact Fast's margins and demand looking out over the next 6-12 months, but less than peers like Nintendo or Toyota....

Mark Chadwick

Capping Ratio of Fast Retailing in Nikkei 225

On January 31st, Nikkei released a note “Regarding the Capping Ratio of Fast Retailing in Nikkei 225” about the change in capping ratio of Fast...

Vantage Capital Markets Japan

Last Week in Event SPACE: Fast Retailing, Sigma, Takeda Pharmaceutical, WH Group

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Strong Q2 beat with revenue up 14% YoY and OP up 33%, driven by Japan strength and solid winter sales, offsetting China weakness. Guidance raised...