Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
Opportunity: Currently eight pair trade opportunities across four markets and five sectors persist.</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Opportunity: Currently eight pair trade opportunities across four markets and five sectors persist.

Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (15 Dec)

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>In his recent insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4091" rel="noopener">Brian Freitas</a> stated that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>'s CPAF will stay the same at the September 25 Nikkei 225 Index rebalance.</li>
<li>The stock is turning oversold—not yet extreme, but notable. Historically, this short-term downtrend pattern often reversed after two weeks of declines; we are now in the second consecutive week lower.</li>
<li>Monitor the 47150 support level: the stock is trading at 47810 at the moment of writing, if it goes at or below 47150 it will start to be clearly oversold.
</li>
</ul>


In his recent insight, Brian Freitas stated that Fast Retailing (9983 JP)'s CPAF will stay the same at the September 25 Nikkei 225 Index rebalance.
The stock is turning oversold—not yet extreme, but notable. Historically, this short-term downtrend pattern often reversed after two weeks of declines; we are now in the second consecutive week lower.
Monitor the 47150 support level: the stock is trading at 47810 at the moment of writing, if it goes at or below 47150 it will start to be clearly oversold.



Fast Retailing (9983 JP) Tactical Outlook: Turning OVERSOLD, Potential BUY Ahead of Sep-25 Rebalance

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>Q3 revenue/OP miss vs. our est. on weaker-than-expected Uniqlo International - FX and China weakness key drivers.</li>
<li>Japan and Western markets continue to outperform; U.S. and Europe now rival China in size.</li>
<li>FY company guidance unchanged but rising risks to next FY from tariffs and persistent China underperformance.</li>
</ul>


Q3 revenue/OP miss vs. our est. on weaker-than-expected Uniqlo International - FX and China weakness key drivers.
Japan and Western markets continue to outperform; U.S. and Europe now rival China in size.
FY company guidance unchanged but rising risks to next FY from tariffs and persistent China underperformance.


Fast Retailing(9983) | Q3 Miss But FY Guide Intact - Execution Solid, China Still Weak

<ul>
<li>Q3 earnings risk skewed to upside: we forecast sales/OP of ¥857b/¥171b vs. Street’s ¥826b/¥152b.</li>
<li>Domestic Uniqlo trends strong; international segment likely resilient despite Inditex’s headline miss.</li>
<li>Tariff impact likely reiterated but remains a FY26 issue, not a near-term earnings swing factor.</li>
</ul>


Q3 earnings risk skewed to upside: we forecast sales/OP of ¥857b/¥171b vs. Street’s ¥826b/¥152b.
Domestic Uniqlo trends strong; international segment likely resilient despite Inditex’s headline miss.
Tariff impact likely reiterated but remains a FY26 issue, not a near-term earnings swing factor.


FAST RETAILING (9983 JP) | Q3 Preview: Upside Risk into Print, But Tariff Narrative Still Overhangs

<ul>
<li>This strategy exploits relative value in implied volatilities and combines it with a long Nifty 50 vs. short Nikkei 225 directional view over a period of two months.</li>
<li>The strategy performs well if the Nifty 50 rises and outperforms the Nikkei 225. If both indices decline, neither profit nor loss is incurred.</li>
<li>Leverage increases both the strategy's payoff and probability of success.</li>
</ul>


This strategy exploits relative value in implied volatilities and combines it with a long Nifty 50 vs. short Nikkei 225 directional view over a period of two months.
The strategy performs well if the Nifty 50 rises and outperforms the Nikkei 225. If both indices decline, neither profit nor loss is incurred.
Leverage increases both the strategy's payoff and probability of success.


EQD | Long Nifty 50 Vs. Short Nikkei 225 - A Relative Value Option Strategy with a Kicker

Japan

FAST RETAILING CO., LTD. operates a chain of clothing stores, UNIQLO, throughout Japan and in other markets overseas including UK, China, Hong Kong, South Korea, US, France, Singapore and Russia.  The Company designs, manufactures, and retails its own line of casual clothing.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Fast Retailing (9983 JP)

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (15 Dec)

Discover statistical pair trade opportunities based on mean-reversion analysis in various markets and sectors, offering unique insights for...

Gaudenz Schneider