Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish following the S&amp;P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside constructive market dynamics which have significantly improved over the past week.</li>
<li>Last week's 11/5/24 report titled "Buy the Pullback" discussed how we were buyers, expecting a strong end-of-year rally to start that day or the following day (day after the election)</li>
<li>The strong rally officially started on election day, and all that is left to do is ride the trend higher into year-end and the early part of 2025</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish following the S&amp;P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside constructive market dynamics which have significantly improved over the past week.
Last week's 11/5/24 report titled "Buy the Pullback" discussed how we were buyers, expecting a strong end-of-year rally to start that day or the following day (day after the election)
The strong rally officially started on election day, and all that is left to do is ride the trend higher into year-end and the early part of 2025


Ride the Trend Higher; Significant End-Of-Year Rally Underway; Four Sector Upgrades, One Downgrade

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Constituent changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX</a> and weight changes as a result of the market consultation proposals being adopted will result in a round-trip trade of US$31.5bn.</li>
<li>The largest one-way turnover is expected in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/consumer-staples-select-sector-spdr-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27536:1" rel="noopener">Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">Technology Select Sector SPDR</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/materials-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27541:1" rel="noopener">Materials Select Sector SPDR</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/communication-services-select-sector-spdr-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27534:1" rel="noopener">Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund</a>.</li>
<li>The inflows to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/palantir-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27728:1" rel="noopener">Palantir Technologies (PLTR US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dell-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32189:1" rel="noopener">Dell Technologies (DELL US)</a> will add to the buying from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a> trackers.</li>
</ul>


Constituent changes to the S&amp;P 500 INDEX and weight changes as a result of the market consultation proposals being adopted will result in a round-trip trade of US$31.5bn.
The largest one-way turnover is expected in the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund, Technology Select Sector SPDR, Materials Select Sector SPDR and Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund.
The inflows to Apple (AAPL US), Palantir Technologies (PLTR US) and Dell Technologies (DELL US) will add to the buying from the S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) trackers.


Select Sector Indices: Inflows to Apple, Palantir, Dell Will Add to SPX Buying

<ul>
<li>Price action on SPX is extremely similar to prior major topping patterns in April 2000 and August 2007, which is why we recommended reducing risk near 5670-5783 last week.</li>
<li>Additional similarities to 2000/2007 (other than price action) include the Fed cutting rates, recession indicators such as the Sahm rule and Schannep Recession Indicator (SRI) triggered, and yield curve un-inverting.</li>
<li>SPX resistance is in the 5670-5783 range; if a major top is happening, that is where it would start from (using the 2000 and 2007 tops as comparisons).</li>
</ul>


Price action on SPX is extremely similar to prior major topping patterns in April 2000 and August 2007, which is why we recommended reducing risk near 5670-5783 last week.
Additional similarities to 2000/2007 (other than price action) include the Fed cutting rates, recession indicators such as the Sahm rule and Schannep Recession Indicator (SRI) triggered, and yield curve un-inverting.
SPX resistance is in the 5670-5783 range; if a major top is happening, that is where it would start from (using the 2000 and 2007 tops as comparisons).


Recessionary Signals as SPX Tests Resistance; Downgrading Energy to Underweight

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>XLF Decline Post Rate Cuts: The Financials Select Sector ETF (XLF) declined by an average of 5.6% in the six months following the last three monetary policy pivots.</li>
<li>Credit Delinquency Risks: Rising credit card delinquencies, now at 10.93% for severe cases, pose a significant risk to financial firms within XLF, potentially amplifying their underperformance as rates decline.</li>
<li>Utilities Sector Advantage: Utility companies tend to outperform during rate cuts due to reduced debt payments, with the sector seeing a ~6% spread increase compared to the S&amp;P 500.</li>
</ul>


XLF Decline Post Rate Cuts: The Financials Select Sector ETF (XLF) declined by an average of 5.6% in the six months following the last three monetary policy pivots.
Credit Delinquency Risks: Rising credit card delinquencies, now at 10.93% for severe cases, pose a significant risk to financial firms within XLF, potentially amplifying their underperformance as rates decline.
Utilities Sector Advantage: Utility companies tend to outperform during rate cuts due to reduced debt payments, with the sector seeing a ~6% spread increase compared to the S&amp;P 500.


Sector Rotation Amid Anticipated Fed Rate Cuts: Utilities Vs. Financials

<ul>
<li>S&amp;P DJI have started a market consultation to change the index weighting methodology for the Select Sector Indices to reduce concentration and avoid reverse turnover.</li>
<li>There is US$281bn tracking the Select Sector Indices from the SPDR ETFs. The market consultation will have a larger impact on indices where there is a high degree of concentration.</li>
<li>The largest inflows are expected in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/conocophillips" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18090:1" rel="noopener">Conocophillips</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netflix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20451:1" rel="noopener">Netflix</a> while the largest outflows will be from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microsoft-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15273:1" rel="noopener">Microsoft</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chevron-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11091:1" rel="noopener">Chevron</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/procter-gamble-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:978:1" rel="noopener">Procter &amp; Gamble</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/exxon-mobil-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:811:1" rel="noopener">Exxon Mobil</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/costco-wholesale-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18404:1" rel="noopener">Costco Wholesale</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meta-platforms-inc-class-a-facebook" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1" rel="noopener">Meta Platforms</a>.</li>
</ul>


S&amp;P DJI have started a market consultation to change the index weighting methodology for the Select Sector Indices to reduce concentration and avoid reverse turnover.
There is US$281bn tracking the Select Sector Indices from the SPDR ETFs. The market consultation will have a larger impact on indices where there is a high degree of concentration.
The largest inflows are expected in Apple, Conocophillips, Amazon.com and Netflix while the largest outflows will be from Microsoft, NVIDIA, Chevron, Procter &amp; Gamble, Exxon Mobil, Costco Wholesale and Meta Platforms.


Select Sector Indices - HUGE Impact of Proposed Constituent Weighting Changes

United States

Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA.  The Fund's objective is to provide investment results that, before expenses, correspond to the performance of The Financial Select Sector.  The Index includes financial services firms whose business' range from investment management to commercial & business banking.

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Financial Select Sector SPDR F (XLF US)

Ride the Trend Higher; Significant End-Of-Year Rally Underway; Four Sector Upgrades, One Downgrade

Ride the Trend Higher; Significant End-of-Year Rally Underway $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Four Sector Upgrades ($XLF to overweight, $XLY $XLI and $IYT to...

Vermilion Research

Select Sector Indices: Inflows to Apple, Palantir, Dell Will Add to SPX Buying

Constituent changes to the SPX and the market consultation proposals being adopted result in a round-trip trade of US$31.5bn. Apple and...

Brian Freitas

Recessionary Signals as SPX Tests Resistance; Downgrading Energy to Underweight

Recessionary Signals as $SPX Tests Resistance; Downgrading Energy $XLE to Underweight; WTI Crude Oil Breakdown. Still expecting more downside. $XLB...

Vermilion Research

Sector Rotation Amid Anticipated Fed Rate Cuts: Utilities Vs. Financials

Upcoming Fed rate cuts are set to challenge financials while benefiting utilities. Financials face elevated risk from rising credit card...

Mint Finance

Select Sector Indices - HUGE Impact of Proposed Constituent Weighting Changes

The market consultation to change the index weighting methodology will set off a US$28bn trade in Sep. Inflows to Apple, Conocophillips, Amazon.com...

Brian Freitas

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