Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

Taishin Financial Holding / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The monthly profit figures at Taishin are rising substantially, suggesting a strong 2Q23</li>
<li>Taishin's LDR had declined dramatically in 1Q23, monthly figures may suggest expansion</li>
<li>With declining credit costs, to match lower NPLs, the outlook for Taishin's profit is strong</li>
</ul>


The monthly profit figures at Taishin are rising substantially, suggesting a strong 2Q23
Taishin's LDR had declined dramatically in 1Q23, monthly figures may suggest expansion
With declining credit costs, to match lower NPLs, the outlook for Taishin's profit is strong


Taishin - Monthly Profit Surge at +253% in May Suggests Strong Quarterly Numbers

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>With two weeks left to the cutoff, there could be 5 changes to the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in June.</li>
<li>Apart from the adds/deletes, there will also be capping and funding flows that will lead to an estimated one-way turnover of 13.5% and a one-way trade of US$886m.</li>
<li>There are 9 stocks with at least 5 days ADV to trade from passive trackers and another 12 stocks that have at least 1 day ADV to trade.</li>
</ul>


With two weeks left to the cutoff, there could be 5 changes to the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in June.
Apart from the adds/deletes, there will also be capping and funding flows that will lead to an estimated one-way turnover of 13.5% and a one-way trade of US$886m.
There are 9 stocks with at least 5 days ADV to trade from passive trackers and another 12 stocks that have at least 1 day ADV to trade.


Yuanta/​​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend+ ETF Preview: Two Weeks to Cutoff

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Yuanta Financial Holding Co / Equity Bottom-Up

*Very Solid 1Q21: Yuanta Financial Holding (2885.TT) [Yuanta] reported 1Q21 results of NTD 9.4 bn, increasing NTD 4.9 bn (107.5%) linked quarter. Much of Yuanta’s linked quarter growth can be attributed to strong net interest income growth from both a margin loan and bank loan balance increases; a significant reduction in loss provisioning; and net fee improvement on the back of an ADTV increase on the TAIEX; and*Hidden Yuanta Earnings At Bank: At 21% of Yuanta’s bottom-line, Yunata Bank posted strong core operating results as well – NTD 2.0 bn, increasing NTD 731 mn or 59.2% linked quarter. Reserve cover of NPLs is extraordinary and the best we’ve seen in Asia thus far at 12.1x. By our calculation, Yuanta Bank has over reserved and can release upward of NTD 10.5 bn – representing over one quarter of Yuanta’s quarterly bottom-line.

*Very Solid 1Q21: Yuanta Financial Holding (2885.TT) [Yuanta] reported 1Q21 results of NTD 9.4 bn, increasing NTD 4.9 bn (107.5%) linked quarter. Much of Yuanta’s linked quarter growth can be attributed to strong net interest income growth from both a margin loan and bank loan balance increases; a significant reduction in loss provisioning; and net fee improvement on the back of an ADTV increase on the TAIEX; and*Hidden Yuanta Earnings At Bank: At 21% of Yuanta’s bottom-line, Yunata Bank posted strong core operating results as well – NTD 2.0 bn, increasing NTD 731 mn or 59.2% linked quarter. Reserve cover of NPLs is extraordinary and the best we’ve seen in Asia thus far at 12.1x. By our calculation, Yuanta Bank has over reserved and can release upward of NTD 10.5 bn – representing over one quarter of Yuanta’s quarterly bottom-line.

Yuanta Financial Holding – Firing On All Cylinders

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

The Tender Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jih-sun-financial-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17971:1" rel="noopener">Jih Sun Financial (5820 TT)</a> by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fubon-financial-holding-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11869:1" rel="noopener">Fubon Financial Holding Co (2881 TT)</a> closes on 23 March. The original close was 1 February but a 50-day extension was granted as requested, to 23 March. In Taiwan, Tender Offers are for a minimum of 20 days and a maximum of 50 days, and an extension can be granted for 50 days. There are further extensions possible for "reasonable cause" upon application to the FSC, but it is not clear that exists in this case. I expect if Fubon wants it, the FSC would be inclined to grant it. There appears to be substantial regulatory support for the deal as a first among what may be many such future financial holding company consolidations. But there remain questions as to whether this gets done or not.

The Tender Offer for Jih Sun Financial (5820 TT) by Fubon Financial Holding Co (2881 TT) closes on 23 March. The original close was 1 February but a 50-day extension was granted as requested, to 23 March. In Taiwan, Tender Offers are for a minimum of 20 days and a maximum of 50 days, and an extension can be granted for 50 days. There are further extensions possible for "reasonable cause" upon application to the FSC, but it is not clear that exists in this case. I expect if Fubon wants it, the FSC would be inclined to grant it. There appears to be substantial regulatory support for the deal as a first among what may be many such future financial holding company consolidations. But there remain questions as to whether this gets done or not. 

Mega Financial Holding Co., Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

Mega Financial Holding Co., Ltd (2886 TT)

*Blowout Quarter Not Sustainable: Mega Financial Holding (2886.TT) [Mega] reported 2Q20 profit of NTD 9.4 bn, increasing NTD 7.4 bn (384%) on a linked quarter basis.  The increase in profitability was led primarily by the NTD 9.1 bn (41.6x) increase in trading and other category, which appears to be led by MTM gains attributed to the decline in both US and Taiwanese interest rates. We view much of the gain as one-time in nature; and *Continued EPS Pressures: Earnings pressures abound, however, as the following acted as an offset to Mega’s improved bottom-line, as net interest income declined with the NIM drop far greater than peer; the across the board decline in fees; and an operating expense increases. We worry that the only earnings lever left for Mega to pull on is a continued reduction in loss provisions and that the dividend may be cut.

 *Blowout Quarter Not Sustainable: Mega Financial Holding (2886.TT) [Mega] reported 2Q20 profit of NTD 9.4 bn, increasing NTD 7.4 bn (384%) on a linked quarter basis.  The increase in profitability was led primarily by the NTD 9.1 bn (41.6x) increase in trading and other category, which appears to be led by MTM gains attributed to the decline in both US and Taiwanese interest rates. We view much of the gain as one-time in nature; and *Continued EPS Pressures: Earnings pressures abound, however, as the following acted as an offset to Mega’s improved bottom-line, as net interest income declined with the NIM drop far greater than peer; the across the board decline in fees; and an operating expense increases. We worry that the only earnings lever left for Mega to pull on is a continued reduction in loss provisions and that the dividend may be cut. 

Mega Financial – NIM Under Severe Pressure

Taiwan

First Financial Holding Co., Ltd. is a holding company.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company accepts deposits, provides loans and discount, letters of credit, and guarantee services, invests in marketable securities, provides securities brokerage and investment services, as well as provides insurance services.

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First Financial Holding Co (2892 TT)

Taishin - Monthly Profit Surge at +253% in May Suggests Strong Quarterly Numbers

Monthly profit figures are provided by Taiwan's banks, and the growth for Taishin in April and May has been incredibly strong, suggesting a very...

Daniel Tabbush

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend+ ETF Preview: Two Weeks to Cutoff

With 2 weeks to cutoff, we see 5 changes in June. The deletions are fairly clear, but there are a lot of non-constituents crowded around similar...

Brian Freitas

Yuanta Financial Holding – Firing On All Cylinders

YUANTA FINANCIAL: Yuanta reported a QOQ 1Q21 results increase of 107.5%, attributed to strong net interest income growth and a provision reduction....

Thomas J. Monaco

Jih Sun Financial Deal Down To The Wire

Fubon deal for Jih Sun comes down to the wire. Extension is possible but there is no word from either of the two big holders. Jih Sun trades at...

Travis Lundy

Mega Financial – NIM Under Severe Pressure

*Blowout Quarter Not Sustainable: Mega Financial Holding (2886.TT) [Mega] reported 2Q20 profit of NTD 9.4 bn, increasing NTD 7.4 bn (384%) on a...

Thomas J. Monaco

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Taishin - Monthly Profit Surge at +253% in May Suggests Strong Quarterly Numbers

Monthly profit figures are provided by Taiwan's banks, and the growth for Taishin in April and May has been incredibly strong, suggesting a very...

Daniel Tabbush

Yuanta/​​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend+ ETF Preview: Two Weeks to Cutoff

With 2 weeks to cutoff, we see 5 changes in June. The deletions are fairly clear, but there are a lot of non-constituents crowded around similar...

Brian Freitas

Yuanta Financial Holding – Firing On All Cylinders

YUANTA FINANCIAL: Yuanta reported a QOQ 1Q21 results increase of 107.5%, attributed to strong net interest income growth and a provision reduction....

Thomas J. Monaco

Jih Sun Financial Deal Down To The Wire

Fubon deal for Jih Sun comes down to the wire. Extension is possible but there is no word from either of the two big holders. Jih Sun trades at...

Travis Lundy

Mega Financial – NIM Under Severe Pressure

*Blowout Quarter Not Sustainable: Mega Financial Holding (2886.TT) [Mega] reported 2Q20 profit of NTD 9.4 bn, increasing NTD 7.4 bn (384%) on a...

Thomas J. Monaco

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend+ ETF Preview: Two Weeks to Cutoff