Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day, Money of Mine

Money of Mine

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day

An ex-underground miner, an ex-investment banker, and an ex-equity research guy breaking down the mining news of the day. It's a bit of entertainment, information, and occasionally some alpha.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Boss Energy has acquired a stake in Laramide, filling a gap in their listed investments</li><li>Laramide's flagship asset is the Westmoreland Uranium project in Queensland, with potential in New Mexico as well</li><li>Boss Energy's acquisitions suggest a shift in narrative towards exploring potential projects beyond just production</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Boss Energy has acquired a stake in Laramide, filling a gap in their listed investmentsLaramide's flagship asset is the Westmoreland Uranium project in Queensland, with potential in New Mexico as wellBoss Energy's acquisitions suggest a shift in narrative towards exploring potential projects beyond just productionThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Have investors overblown Cobre Panama’s risk?

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

<ul>
<li>After analyzing their annual results, presentations, and conference call transcripts, we summarize the supply mine-by-mine and market commentary gathered from twelve major listed copper producers (40% of global production).</li>
<li>Copper supply growth is expected to be 3% YoY 2025e, resulting in a deficit of 250,000 tons (&gt;1 million tons in 2029), while inventories currently cover a week's global demand. </li>
<li>With the cost curve at the last decile around $4.5$/lb, the copper price is supported greatly despite the system's high inventories. </li>
</ul>


After analyzing their annual results, presentations, and conference call transcripts, we summarize the supply mine-by-mine and market commentary gathered from twelve major listed copper producers (40% of global production).
Copper supply growth is expected to be 3% YoY 2025e, resulting in a deficit of 250,000 tons (&gt;1 million tons in 2029), while inventories currently cover a week's global demand. 
With the cost curve at the last decile around $4.5$/lb, the copper price is supported greatly despite the system's high inventories. 


Post Results FY24: Mine-By-Mine Plan Production + Commentary on Copper From Global Listed Companies

<ul>
<li>Potentially damaging negative news has emerged in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mongolian-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4382:1" rel="noopener">Mongolian Mining (975 HK)</a> that could possibly result in the suspension of its mine or a review of conditions on the lease agreement.</li>
<li>Prime Minister's Order No. 32 established a Working Group to assess the mining license for the Tavan Tolgoi coal deposit and review earlier parliamentary and government resolutions.</li>
<li>As the issue has become political, we are unsure about the outcome of this review and would stay on the sidelines until a firm resolution is reached. </li>
</ul>


Potentially damaging negative news has emerged in Mongolian Mining (975 HK) that could possibly result in the suspension of its mine or a review of conditions on the lease agreement.
Prime Minister's Order No. 32 established a Working Group to assess the mining license for the Tavan Tolgoi coal deposit and review earlier parliamentary and government resolutions.
As the issue has become political, we are unsure about the outcome of this review and would stay on the sidelines until a firm resolution is reached. 


Mongolia Mining (975 HK): Left Field Negative Catalyst

First Quantum Minerals / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>China TSF disappointed expectations, coming in at 2.34 trillion RMB (down 5% YoY), compared to the median forecast of 2.7 trillion RMB by the street.</li>
<li>Comex premiums significantly strengthened, with alot of market participants turning bullish with the imminent return of Donald Trump to power on the 20th of January 2025.</li>
<li>We initiated on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/first-quantum-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25362:1" rel="noopener">First Quantum Minerals (FM CN)</a>. For more details, read our insight: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/first-quantum-minerals-fm-cn-call-option-on-cobre-panama" target="_blank" rel="noopener">First Quantum Minerals (FM CN): Call Option on Cobre Panama?</a> </li>
</ul>


China TSF disappointed expectations, coming in at 2.34 trillion RMB (down 5% YoY), compared to the median forecast of 2.7 trillion RMB by the street.
Comex premiums significantly strengthened, with alot of market participants turning bullish with the imminent return of Donald Trump to power on the 20th of January 2025.
We initiated on First Quantum Minerals (FM CN). For more details, read our insight: First Quantum Minerals (FM CN): Call Option on Cobre Panama? 


Copper Tracker 16th Dec 2024: New Loan Growth In China Uninspiring

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/first-quantum-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25362:1" rel="noopener">First Quantum Minerals (FM CN)</a> is a play on African mining assets for copper/zinc with an optionality of resumption of the Cobre Panama mine that could double the share price. </li>
<li>We should not assign a high probability to the asset's resumption and view it as a long-duration, very out-of-the-money call option.</li>
<li>The company trades at an EV-EBITDA of 9.8x, which is more expensive than some of its peers. However, Cobre Panama's optionality makes it attractive.</li>
</ul>



First Quantum Minerals (FM CN) is a play on African mining assets for copper/zinc with an optionality of resumption of the Cobre Panama mine that could double the share price. 
We should not assign a high probability to the asset's resumption and view it as a long-duration, very out-of-the-money call option.
The company trades at an EV-EBITDA of 9.8x, which is more expensive than some of its peers. However, Cobre Panama's optionality makes it attractive.


First Quantum Minerals (FM CN): Call Option on Cobre Panama?

Canada

First Quantum Minerals Ltd. explores for, mines, and produces copper cathode, copper in concentrate, and gold.  The Company also produces sulfuric acid.

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First Quantum Minerals (FM CN)

Have investors overblown Cobre Panama’s risk?

Boss Energy has acquired a stake in Laramide, filling a gap in their listed investments Laramide's flagship asset is the Westmoreland Uranium...

Money of Mine

Post Results FY24: Mine-By-Mine Plan Production + Commentary on Copper From Global Listed Companies

We compile mine production plans for 12 major copper producers, which account for more than 40% of the refined copper produced. We also analyze the...

Sameer Taneja

Mongolia Mining (975 HK): Left Field Negative Catalyst

Read this insight to understand the implications of Mongolia's mining sector developments, including government actions on the Tavan Tolgoi coal...

Sameer Taneja

Copper Tracker 16th Dec 2024: New Loan Growth In China Uninspiring

With the uninspiring China TSF number and the CEWC's release of stimulus measures that haven't inspired confidence in market participants, what do...

Sameer Taneja

First Quantum Minerals (FM CN): Call Option on Cobre Panama?

We initiate First Quantum Minerals (FM CN), a Canadian copper miner with assets in Zambia/Panama. We analyze the bull-bear spread and risk to the...

Sameer Taneja

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