Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Corporations and countries continue their pursuit of critical minerals, such as copper. The failed <a href="https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/sustainable-finance-reporting/bhp-abandons-anglo-american-approach-says-own-growth-plan-compelling-2025-11-23/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BHP-Anglo merger </a>was followed by the successful <a href="https://www.angloamerican.com/investors/anglo-american-teck-merger" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Anglo-Teck</a> merger and, more recently, the revived <a href="https://www.afr.com/rich-list/ivan-glasenberg-s-wealth-tops-21b-on-rio-glencore-mega-merger-talks-20260114-p5ntvp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Rio-Glencore merger</a> talks.</li>
<li>Following actions involving Venezuela and recent interest in Greenland, the Trump administration has more directly aligned itself with broader efforts to secure strategic critical mineral reserves.</li>
<li>Amplified by the recent COMEX copper inventory build (&gt;25% of U.S. demand), current market dynamics reflect heightened speculative activity, even as copper prices paused for the first time last week.</li>
</ul>


Corporations and countries continue their pursuit of critical minerals, such as copper. The failed BHP-Anglo merger was followed by the successful Anglo-Teck merger and, more recently, the revived Rio-Glencore merger talks.
Following actions involving Venezuela and recent interest in Greenland, the Trump administration has more directly aligned itself with broader efforts to secure strategic critical mineral reserves.
Amplified by the recent COMEX copper inventory build (&gt;25% of U.S. demand), current market dynamics reflect heightened speculative activity, even as copper prices paused for the first time last week.


Copper Takes a Breather, but Animal Spirits Poised to Take Over in Greenland Land Grab

<ul>
<li>In our prior insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/copper-mine-by-mine-supply-challenges-for-everyone-update-as-copper-is-set-to-break-12k-usd-ton" target="_blank" rel="noopener">we highlighted grave global copper supply issues.</a>The latest copper supply casualty is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capstone-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25359:1" rel="noopener">Capstone Copper (CS CN)</a> with a <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-02/capstone-chile-miners-strike-as-record-copper-lifts-expectations" target="_blank" rel="noopener">strike at the Mantoverde mine Chile</a>.</li>
<li>Shortly after copper broke the 12k USD/ton mark, we followed it up with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/copper-breaks-12k-usd-ton-move-to-13k-usd-ton-by-early-next-year" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:215539" rel="noopener">Copper Breaks 12k USD/Ton: Move To 13k USD/Ton By Early Next Year</a> </li>
<li>Copper is now at 12.5k USD/ton, and we believe there is an alot of momentum building in the commodity, and breaking 13k USD/ton will likely happen soon.</li>
</ul>


In our prior insight, we highlighted grave global copper supply issues.The latest copper supply casualty is Capstone Copper (CS CN) with a strike at the Mantoverde mine Chile.
Shortly after copper broke the 12k USD/ton mark, we followed it up with Copper Breaks 12k USD/Ton: Move To 13k USD/Ton By Early Next Year 
Copper is now at 12.5k USD/ton, and we believe there is an alot of momentum building in the commodity, and breaking 13k USD/ton will likely happen soon.


Copper: Steady Path to 13k USD/Ton, With Capstone (CS CN) Being The Latest Supply Casualty

<ul>
<li>A confluence of a weakening dollar, lacklustre supply growth, and tailwinds from the demand narrative led copper to break 12k USD/ton by year-end.</li>
<li>The situation has been exacerbated by stockpiling in the US due to an impending 15% tariff on copper effective January 2027, resulting in "economically trapped" inventory. </li>
<li>We remain bullish on copper and expect 2026 to be another tight year, with prices potentially breaching 13k USD/ton. </li>
</ul>


A confluence of a weakening dollar, lacklustre supply growth, and tailwinds from the demand narrative led copper to break 12k USD/ton by year-end.
The situation has been exacerbated by stockpiling in the US due to an impending 15% tariff on copper effective January 2027, resulting in "economically trapped" inventory. 
We remain bullish on copper and expect 2026 to be another tight year, with prices potentially breaching 13k USD/ton. 


Copper Breaks 12k USD/Ton: Move To 13k USD/Ton By Early Next Year

<ul>
<li>We update the expansion plans of all listed companies under our coverage one by one to capture the extent of the copper supply shortages the world will experience. </li>
<li>These listed companies account for ~40% of the global supply, providing a robust sample for analyzing current supply issues, as copper is set to exceed USD 12,000/ton. </li>
<li>We like copper names with a solid supply story and low on the cost curve, like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antofagasta-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21814:1" rel="noopener">Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)</a> </li>
</ul>


We update the expansion plans of all listed companies under our coverage one by one to capture the extent of the copper supply shortages the world will experience. 
These listed companies account for ~40% of the global supply, providing a robust sample for analyzing current supply issues, as copper is set to exceed USD 12,000/ton. 
We like copper names with a solid supply story and low on the cost curve, like Southern Copper (SCCO US) and Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN) 


Copper Mine By Mine Supply Challenges For Everyone: Update As Copper Is Set to Break 12k USD/Ton

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a> reported stellar earnings and execution in Q3 2025, with revenues/operating income up 15% and 21% YoY, respectively, beating street estimates by ~4-5%.</li>
<li>The company included slides in its presentation deck highlighting that the copper deficit could rise to 3 million tons by 2030e and 12.1 million tons by 2040e. </li>
<li>This would be led by a transition to EVs (electric vehicles), greater use of renewable energy with higher capex intensity, and other nascent areas of demand, such as AI infrastructure.</li>
</ul>



Southern Copper (SCCO US) reported stellar earnings and execution in Q3 2025, with revenues/operating income up 15% and 21% YoY, respectively, beating street estimates by ~4-5%.
The company included slides in its presentation deck highlighting that the copper deficit could rise to 3 million tons by 2030e and 12.1 million tons by 2040e. 
This would be led by a transition to EVs (electric vehicles), greater use of renewable energy with higher capex intensity, and other nascent areas of demand, such as AI infrastructure.


Southern Copper (SCCO US): Summary of The Copper To 12,000 USD/Ton and Beyond Thesis In Two Slides

Canada

First Quantum Minerals Ltd. explores for, mines, and produces copper cathode, copper in concentrate, and gold.  The Company also produces sulfuric acid.

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First Quantum Minerals (FM CN)

Copper Takes a Breather, but Animal Spirits Poised to Take Over in Greenland Land Grab

The pursuit of critical minerals by corporations and countries (China, USA) is driving animal spirits in the copper market. We highlight our top...

Sameer Taneja

Copper: Steady Path to 13k USD/Ton, With Capstone (CS CN) Being The Latest Supply Casualty

A strike at Capstone Copper’s Mantoverde mine (CS CN) has curtailed roughly 70% of output, adding to supply risk as copper prices continue to trend...

Sameer Taneja

Copper Breaks 12k USD/Ton: Move To 13k USD/Ton By Early Next Year

We end the year with copper breaking 12k USD/ton. Our call for early next year is copper breaching 13k USD/ton, due to a confluence of factors,...

Sameer Taneja

Copper Mine By Mine Supply Challenges For Everyone: Update As Copper Is Set to Break 12k USD/Ton

We highlight mine-by-mine issues plaguing each of the listed copper companies, resulting in supply being compromised by >3.5% setting the stage for...

Sameer Taneja

Southern Copper (SCCO US): Summary of The Copper To 12,000 USD/Ton and Beyond Thesis In Two Slides

Southern Coppers Q3 FY25 presentation summarizes the bullish copper-to-12,000 USD/ton thesis and beyond very well. They see the copper deficit at...

Sameer Taneja

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