Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

First Quantum Minerals / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>China TSF disappointed expectations, coming in at 2.34 trillion RMB (down 5% YoY), compared to the median forecast of 2.7 trillion RMB by the street.</li>
<li>Comex premiums significantly strengthened, with alot of market participants turning bullish with the imminent return of Donald Trump to power on the 20th of January 2025.</li>
<li>We initiated on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/first-quantum-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25362:1" rel="noopener">First Quantum Minerals (FM CN)</a>. For more details, read our insight: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/first-quantum-minerals-fm-cn-call-option-on-cobre-panama" target="_blank" rel="noopener">First Quantum Minerals (FM CN): Call Option on Cobre Panama?</a> </li>
</ul>


China TSF disappointed expectations, coming in at 2.34 trillion RMB (down 5% YoY), compared to the median forecast of 2.7 trillion RMB by the street.
Comex premiums significantly strengthened, with alot of market participants turning bullish with the imminent return of Donald Trump to power on the 20th of January 2025.
We initiated on First Quantum Minerals (FM CN). For more details, read our insight: First Quantum Minerals (FM CN): Call Option on Cobre Panama? 


Copper Tracker 16th Dec 2024: New Loan Growth In China Uninspiring

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/first-quantum-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25362:1" rel="noopener">First Quantum Minerals (FM CN)</a> is a play on African mining assets for copper/zinc with an optionality of resumption of the Cobre Panama mine that could double the share price. </li>
<li>We should not assign a high probability to the asset's resumption and view it as a long-duration, very out-of-the-money call option.</li>
<li>The company trades at an EV-EBITDA of 9.8x, which is more expensive than some of its peers. However, Cobre Panama's optionality makes it attractive.</li>
</ul>



First Quantum Minerals (FM CN) is a play on African mining assets for copper/zinc with an optionality of resumption of the Cobre Panama mine that could double the share price. 
We should not assign a high probability to the asset's resumption and view it as a long-duration, very out-of-the-money call option.
The company trades at an EV-EBITDA of 9.8x, which is more expensive than some of its peers. However, Cobre Panama's optionality makes it attractive.


First Quantum Minerals (FM CN): Call Option on Cobre Panama?

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>On 4 June, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mmg-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13961:1" rel="noopener">MMG (1208 HK)</a> announced plans to raise HK$9.1bn (US$1.2bn) through 2 rights shares for every five existing shares rights offering, with a rights price of HK$2.62.</li>
<li>Since the rights issue announcement, MMG shares have declined by 16.2% to the undisturbed price and by 8.0% compared to the TERP of HK$3.48 per share. </li>
<li>MMG’s trading pattern has diverged from Link REIT/Yuexiu’s rights trading due to the statement on 18 May that the Peruvian mine is not liable for a 30% withholding tax.</li>
</ul>


On 4 June, MMG (1208 HK) announced plans to raise HK$9.1bn (US$1.2bn) through 2 rights shares for every five existing shares rights offering, with a rights price of HK$2.62.
Since the rights issue announcement, MMG shares have declined by 16.2% to the undisturbed price and by 8.0% compared to the TERP of HK$3.48 per share. 
MMG’s trading pattern has diverged from Link REIT/Yuexiu’s rights trading due to the statement on 18 May that the Peruvian mine is not liable for a 30% withholding tax.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mmg-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13961:1" rel="noopener">Mmg Ltd (1208 HK)</a> will raise HK$9.1bn (US$1.2bn) through 2 rights shares for every 5 existing shares rights offering. The rights price is HK$2.62, a 24.7% discount to the TERP.</li>
<li>The rights proceeds will be used to repay existing debt, which will allow it to use other funds to better support the ongoing development of the operating mines.</li>
<li>MMG shares should continue to decline heading into the ex-rights date. The shares go ex-rights on 11 June, and the rights start trading from 24 June to 2 July (inclusive).</li>
</ul>



Mmg Ltd (1208 HK) will raise HK$9.1bn (US$1.2bn) through 2 rights shares for every 5 existing shares rights offering. The rights price is HK$2.62, a 24.7% discount to the TERP.
The rights proceeds will be used to repay existing debt, which will allow it to use other funds to better support the ongoing development of the operating mines.
MMG shares should continue to decline heading into the ex-rights date. The shares go ex-rights on 11 June, and the rights start trading from 24 June to 2 July (inclusive).


MMG (1208 HK): US$1.2bn Highly Dilutive Rights Issue

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>JPMorgan is <a href="https://www.afr.com/street-talk/minres-selling-14-5pc-of-azure-minerals-jpm-nabs-trade-20240221-p5f6ta" target="_blank" rel="noopener">placing</a> <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mineral-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15103:1" rel="noopener">MinRes (MIN AU)</a></strong>'s 14.5% stake in <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azure-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16538:1" rel="noopener">Azure Minerals (AZS AU)</a></strong> at A$3.42/share, a 5% discount to last close and a 7.6% discount to the A$3.70/share Scheme price. </li>
<li>It was reported last month that MinRes, who paid up to ~A$4.00/share for some of its stake, was looking to exit. But cash now vs. ~8% more in two months?</li>
<li>Given the recent rout in lithium and nickel prices, one wonders if a MAC landmine lurks. Or, quite simply, MinRes just needs the cash. Expect Azure to fall tomorrow.</li>
</ul>


JPMorgan is placing MinRes (MIN AU)'s 14.5% stake in Azure Minerals (AZS AU) at A$3.42/share, a 5% discount to last close and a 7.6% discount to the A$3.70/share Scheme price. 
It was reported last month that MinRes, who paid up to ~A$4.00/share for some of its stake, was looking to exit. But cash now vs. ~8% more in two months?
Given the recent rout in lithium and nickel prices, one wonders if a MAC landmine lurks. Or, quite simply, MinRes just needs the cash. Expect Azure to fall tomorrow.


Canada

First Quantum Minerals Ltd. explores for, mines, and produces copper cathode, copper in concentrate, and gold.  The Company also produces sulfuric acid.

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First Quantum Minerals (FM CN)

Copper Tracker 16th Dec 2024: New Loan Growth In China Uninspiring

With the uninspiring China TSF number and the CEWC's release of stimulus measures that haven't inspired confidence in market participants, what do...

Sameer Taneja