Iron Ore, Copper, Equities, Mint Finance

Umang Agrawal

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>LME cash-to-3M copper spread has eased sharply, but tight nearby supply and concentrated positioning keep the market vulnerable to renewed squeezes.</li>
<li>Copper options show a firmer upside tilt as CVOL and skew rise, while call-heavy positioning contrasts with cautious managed-money positioning.</li>
<li>The Government of India’s HCL OFS offers up to 6% stake at INR 514, with non-retail bidding opening Tuesday (25/Aug) and retail bidding Wednesday (26/Aug).</li>
</ul>


LME cash-to-3M copper spread has eased sharply, but tight nearby supply and concentrated positioning keep the market vulnerable to renewed squeezes.
Copper options show a firmer upside tilt as CVOL and skew rise, while call-heavy positioning contrasts with cautious managed-money positioning.
The Government of India’s HCL OFS offers up to 6% stake at INR 514, with non-retail bidding opening Tuesday (25/Aug) and retail bidding Wednesday (26/Aug).


Copper: LME Cash-3M Spread Eases, COPX Sees Outflows and HCL’s 6% OFS Begins

<ul>
<li>LME and SHFE inventories have plunged 42% and 84% from their peaks, respectively, while COMEX stocks hit 653 kt as traders front-load shipments ahead of potential US tariffs.</li>
<li>COPX attracted USD 62 Mn of inflows across two trading sessions following a USD 20.2 Mn outflow, as the Fed’s decision to hold interest rates revived investor confidence.</li>
<li>Glencore’s adjusted copper EBITDA is expected to accelerate by 62% in FY26, while a potential ASX listing could strengthen capital access and unlock fresh M&amp;A opportunities.</li>
</ul>


LME and SHFE inventories have plunged 42% and 84% from their peaks, respectively, while COMEX stocks hit 653 kt as traders front-load shipments ahead of potential US tariffs.
COPX attracted USD 62 Mn of inflows across two trading sessions following a USD 20.2 Mn outflow, as the Fed’s decision to hold interest rates revived investor confidence.
Glencore’s adjusted copper EBITDA is expected to accelerate by 62% in FY26, while a potential ASX listing could strengthen capital access and unlock fresh M&amp;A opportunities.


Falling Exchange Inventories and Potential US Tariffs Lift Copper, Glencore Eyes ASX Listing

<ul>
<li>Chile's copper supply faces a double blow from severe weather and potential sulphuric acid shortages, raising the risk of tighter mine output and global supply.</li>
<li>Shrinking inventories and soaring Yangshan premiums highlight China's strong appetite for refined copper, providing continued support for copper prices.</li>
<li>A strong earnings beat and reaffirmed guidance underscore Teck's momentum, but mine execution and merger approvals will shape the next phase of growth.</li>
</ul>


Chile's copper supply faces a double blow from severe weather and potential sulphuric acid shortages, raising the risk of tighter mine output and global supply.
Shrinking inventories and soaring Yangshan premiums highlight China's strong appetite for refined copper, providing continued support for copper prices.
A strong earnings beat and reaffirmed guidance underscore Teck's momentum, but mine execution and merger approvals will shape the next phase of growth.


Copper's Bull Case Is No Longer a Story of Hope, but Scarcity

<ul>
<li>Macro headwinds have eclipsed copper's strong fundamentals, though mounting supply risks continue to reinforce the long-term bullish outlook.</li>
<li>Options positioning remains constructive, with upside bets outweighing downside hedges, suggesting traders expect further gains in the COPX ETF.</li>
<li>Hudbay's Arizona acquisition accelerates copper production growth, expands its North American footprint, and strengthens long-term value through scale and synergies.</li>
</ul>


Macro headwinds have eclipsed copper's strong fundamentals, though mounting supply risks continue to reinforce the long-term bullish outlook.
Options positioning remains constructive, with upside bets outweighing downside hedges, suggesting traders expect further gains in the COPX ETF.
Hudbay's Arizona acquisition accelerates copper production growth, expands its North American footprint, and strengthens long-term value through scale and synergies.


Copper's New Playbook: Geopolitics, COPX, and a Miner Worth Watching

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>Our bullish near-term outlook will remain in place as long as the 4+ month uptrend continues on ACWI-US. Remain aggressively long/continue to expect more upside into year-end and the early2026.</li>
<li>Europe's EURO STOXX 50 is breaking out from its 7-month base, above the crucial 5500 level, and RS is attempting to reverse its 5-month downtrend -- buy.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
Our bullish near-term outlook will remain in place as long as the 4+ month uptrend continues on ACWI-US. Remain aggressively long/continue to expect more upside into year-end and the early2026.
Europe's EURO STOXX 50 is breaking out from its 7-month base, above the crucial 5500 level, and RS is attempting to reverse its 5-month downtrend -- buy.


Europe Breaking Out From 7-Month Base -- Buy; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

Canada

First Quantum Minerals Ltd. explores for, mines, and produces copper cathode, copper in concentrate, and gold.  The Company also produces sulfuric acid.

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First Quantum Minerals (FM CN)

Copper: LME Cash-3M Spread Eases, COPX Sees Outflows and HCL’s 6% OFS Begins

Copper’s physical market remains tight despite easing backwardation, while bullish options positioning contrasts with trimmed managed-money longs...

Mint Finance

Falling Exchange Inventories and Potential US Tariffs Lift Copper, Glencore Eyes ASX Listing

Chile’s weakening output and fresh DRC export curbs are deepening concerns over mined copper supply, with China’s softer import demand emerging as...

Mint Finance

Copper's Bull Case Is No Longer a Story of Hope, but Scarcity

Physical market tightness is replacing macro narratives, as Chile's supply disruptions and China's import demand reinforce a stronger long-term...

Mint Finance

Copper's New Playbook: Geopolitics, COPX, and a Miner Worth Watching

The copper market could have many winners. The COPX ETF offers diversified exposure to the miners best placed to benefit as today's macro tailwinds...

Mint Finance

Europe Breaking Out From 7-Month Base -- Buy; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

Europe EURO $STOXX 50 Breaking Out From 7-Month Base -- Buy; Remain Overweight Taiwan $EWT, China $MCHI, Korea $EWY, and the U.S. $SPX; Bullish...

Vermilion Research

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