Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Fonterra Co-Operative Group / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fonterra-co-operative-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28146:1" rel="noopener">Fonterra Co-Operative Group (FCG NZ)</a> has agreed to sell its consumer and associated businesses to Lactalis for NZ$3.845bn, in line with prior market valuations upward of NZ$4bn for the "Mainland Group".</li>
<li>The ACCC previously commenced a formal review of Lactalis' proposed acquisition on the 2nd May, and on the 10th July, announced it would not oppose the deal.</li>
<li>There is potential for a further NZ$375mn increase from the inclusion of the Bega licences held by Fonterra’s Australian business - once a legal dispute is resolved.</li>
</ul>



Fonterra Co-Operative Group (FCG NZ) has agreed to sell its consumer and associated businesses to Lactalis for NZ$3.845bn, in line with prior market valuations upward of NZ$4bn for the "Mainland Group".
The ACCC previously commenced a formal review of Lactalis' proposed acquisition on the 2nd May, and on the 10th July, announced it would not oppose the deal.
There is potential for a further NZ$375mn increase from the inclusion of the Bega licences held by Fonterra’s Australian business - once a legal dispute is resolved.


Fonterra (FCG NZ) Inks Spin-Off With Lactalis

<ul>
<li>On the <a href="https://www.fonterra.com/nz/en/our-stories/media/fonterra-announces-step-change-in-strategic-direction.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">16th May 2024</a>, dairy co-operative <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fonterra-co-operative-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28146:1" rel="noopener">Fonterra (FCG NZ)</a> announced a possible partial/full divestment of its global Consumer business, in addition to its Oceania and Sri Lanka integrated businesses.</li>
<li>Last November, Fonterra <a href="https://www.fonterra.com/nz/en/our-stories/media/fonterra-to-proceed-with-sale-process-for-consumer-businesses.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> it would proceed with the sale process of these business, via a trade dale or IPO. Market valuations were upward of NZ$4bn for the "Mainland Group". </li>
<li>However, the spin-off hit a snag after a NSW court ruled Fonterra may need to renegotiate a long-term branding agreement with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bega-cheese-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7272:1" rel="noopener">Bega Cheese (BGA AU)</a> should the divestment proceed. </li>
</ul>


On the 16th May 2024, dairy co-operative Fonterra (FCG NZ) announced a possible partial/full divestment of its global Consumer business, in addition to its Oceania and Sri Lanka integrated businesses.
Last November, Fonterra said it would proceed with the sale process of these business, via a trade dale or IPO. Market valuations were upward of NZ$4bn for the "Mainland Group". 
However, the spin-off hit a snag after a NSW court ruled Fonterra may need to renegotiate a long-term branding agreement with Bega Cheese (BGA AU) should the divestment proceed. 


Fonterra (FCG NZ)'s Consumer Ops Spin-Off (Potentially) Stumbles

<ul>
<li>Predicting binary events based on regulatory action or inaction is not ideal. Decide Monday or Tuesday to either sell <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shibaura-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12704:1" rel="noopener">Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP)</a> in the market or tender.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/krungthai-card-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20097:1" rel="noopener">Krungthai Card (KTC TB)</a> is still a buy as latest pledged shares numbers fall to 2.3% of shares outstanding, down from 16.3% in May.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wilmar-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:172:1" rel="noopener">Wilmar International (WIL SP)</a> appears "cheap" to 90%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yihai-kerry-arawana-holdings-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33230:1" rel="noopener">Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings C (300999 CH)</a>; however recent implied stub figures have rolled over</li>
</ul>


Predicting binary events based on regulatory action or inaction is not ideal. Decide Monday or Tuesday to either sell Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) in the market or tender.

Krungthai Card (KTC TB) is still a buy as latest pledged shares numbers fall to 2.3% of shares outstanding, down from 16.3% in May.

Wilmar International (WIL SP) appears "cheap" to 90%-held Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings C (300999 CH); however recent implied stub figures have rolled over


Last Week In Event SPACE: Shibaura Electronics, Krungthai Card, Wilmar, First Pac, Fonterra

<ul>
<li>We have a deal in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ntt-data-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11232:1" rel="noopener">NTT Data Corp (9613 JP)</a>. It's big, liquid, and a great place to hide for long-only investors who are bearish the market.</li>
<li>Li Shufu-backed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/geely-automobile-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:127:1" rel="noopener">Geely Auto (175 HK)</a> offers an ordinary 13.6% premium for 65.7-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zeekr-intelligent-technology-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36785:1" rel="noopener">Zeekr (ZK US)</a>. Li/Geely have the necessary votes to force a privatisation.  But still might bump terms.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yageo-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13212:1" rel="noopener">Yageo Corporation (2327 TT)</a> has now strongly overbid Minebea's weak overbid of Yageo's strong overbid of Minebea's weak overbid of Yageo's initial hostile offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shibaura-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12704:1" rel="noopener">Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


We have a deal in NTT Data Corp (9613 JP). It's big, liquid, and a great place to hide for long-only investors who are bearish the market.
Li Shufu-backed Geely Auto (175 HK) offers an ordinary 13.6% premium for 65.7-held Zeekr (ZK US). Li/Geely have the necessary votes to force a privatisation.  But still might bump terms.

Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) has now strongly overbid Minebea's weak overbid of Yageo's strong overbid of Minebea's weak overbid of Yageo's initial hostile offer for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP).


Last Week in Event SPACE: NTT Data Corp, Zeekr, Shibaura Electronics, Swire Pacific/ThaiNamthip

<ul>
<li>I tally 49 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>Five new deals discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smartpay-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45153:1" rel="noopener">SmartPay Holdings (SMP AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ntt-data-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11232:1" rel="noopener">NTT Data Corp (9613 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zeekr-intelligent-technology-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36785:1" rel="noopener">Zeekr (ZK US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/torii-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3253:1" rel="noopener">Torii Pharmaceutical (4551 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-shokuhin-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19778:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Shokuhin (7451 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/domain-holdings-australia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26033:1" rel="noopener">Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold-road-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6698:1" rel="noopener">Gold Road Resources (GOR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canvest-environmental-protection-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:100:1" rel="noopener">Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shibaura-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12704:1" rel="noopener">Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 49 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Five new deals discussed on Smartkarma this week: SmartPay Holdings (SMP AU), NTT Data Corp (9613 JP), Zeekr (ZK US), Torii Pharmaceutical (4551 JP), and Mitsubishi Shokuhin (7451 JP).
Key updates/news took place on: Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU), Gold Road Resources (GOR AU), Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Torii Pharma, Mitsu. Shokuhin, Domain, Gold Road, Canvest, Shibaura, Tsuruha

New Zealand

Fonterra Cooperative Group Ltd is a New Zealand multinational dairy co-operative and its farmer shareholders are the suppliers of milk to Fonterra in New Zealand. The Company operates Fonterra Shareholders' Fund, which provides additional financial flexibility for farmer shareholders who would have the opportunity to sell economic rights of shares to the fund.

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Fonterra Co-Operative Group (FCG NZ)

Fonterra (FCG NZ) Inks Spin-Off With Lactalis

The sale is a win for Fonterra. Nevertheless, Fonterra's market cap has increased by NZ$5.4bn since the divestment was first floated. The sale...

David Blennerhassett

Fonterra (FCG NZ)'s Consumer Ops Spin-Off (Potentially) Stumbles

The bulk of the divestment appears baked into Fonterra's share price. The court decision is, however, likely a minor blip. A sale would be a...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: Shibaura Electronics, Krungthai Card, Wilmar, First Pac, Fonterra

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: NTT Data Corp, Zeekr, Shibaura Electronics, Swire Pacific/ThaiNamthip

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Torii Pharma, Mitsu. Shokuhin, Domain, Gold Road, Canvest, Shibaura, Tsuruha

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

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