'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/139/255/original/2020-06-11_08-36-54.png?1591832240" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="139255"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>STRESS TESTS - This Insight is the first in a series that will use a variety of standard and less-frequently used 'stress-tests' to look through the current euphoria and assess where business risk is concentrated among larger Japanese companies. According to Tokyo Shoko Research, 171 listed Japanese firms have raised nearly ¥10 trillion in new funds to weather COVID-19.ALTMAN Z-SCORES - The first Insight will update our earlier Who's<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-who-s-swimming-naked-part-2-altman-z-score" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:37316" rel="noopener"> Swimming Naked?</a> Insight and focus on the Altman Z-Score as updated for the most recent quarterly results for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing companies.  In each category, ee will look at both the companies that are below Altman's 'distress' levels and those companies that have the most significant negative deviation from their seven-year average score. Only six of the bottom-thirty manufacturing and five of the bottom-thirty manufacturing companies have outperformed over one year. Many are already Oversold and offer potential value opportunities -as with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissan-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:72:1" rel="noopener">Nissan Motor (7201 JP)</a> which is now as distressed as when Carlos Ghosn first arrived.  QUASI-FINANCIAL FIRMS - The Z-Score methodology does not work for financial firms. Accordingly, five non-financial companies which have significant financial subsidiaries -  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/z-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1" rel="noopener">Z Holdings (4689 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post (6178 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony (6758 JP)</a>- have been excluded from this analysis.

Source: Japan AnalyticsSTRESS TESTS - This Insight is the first in a series that will use a variety of standard and less-frequently used 'stress-tests' to look through the current euphoria and assess where business risk is concentrated among larger Japanese companies. According to Tokyo Shoko Research, 171 listed Japanese firms have raised nearly ¥10 trillion in new funds to weather COVID-19.ALTMAN Z-SCORES - The first Insight will update our earlier Who's Swimming Naked? Insight and focus on the Altman Z-Score as updated for the most recent quarterly results for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing companies.  In each category, ee will look at both the companies that are below Altman's 'distress' levels and those companies that have the most significant negative deviation from their seven-year average score. Only six of the bottom-thirty manufacturing and five of the bottom-thirty manufacturing companies have outperformed over one year. Many are already Oversold and offer potential value opportunities -as with Nissan Motor (7201 JP) which is now as distressed as when Carlos Ghosn first arrived.  QUASI-FINANCIAL FIRMS - The Z-Score methodology does not work for financial firms. Accordingly, five non-financial companies which have significant financial subsidiaries -  Rakuten (4755 JP), Z Holdings (4689 JP), Japan Post (6178 JP), Softbank Group (9984 JP) and Sony (6758 JP)- have been excluded from this analysis. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN - Stress Tests Part 1 - Altman Z-Scores

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In early May, as with many months before, I had written about the nature of the Nikkei 25 rebal prediction decision tree. A week later, a branch, well... branched.</li>
<li>The third ADD changed in mid-month last month. Now, the first DELETE has changed. It likely isn't an auto-delete anymore. </li>
<li>Given the rankings of tech stocks, that may mean only two ADDs and two DELETES and it changes the calculus on the DELETEs as a whole.</li>
</ul>


In early May, as with many months before, I had written about the nature of the Nikkei 25 rebal prediction decision tree. A week later, a branch, well... branched.
The third ADD changed in mid-month last month. Now, the first DELETE has changed. It likely isn't an auto-delete anymore. 
Given the rankings of tech stocks, that may mean only two ADDs and two DELETES and it changes the calculus on the DELETEs as a whole.


[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep26 Rebal - Changing Horses on the Top DELETE

<ul>
<li>Less than a week ago, I wrote about my expectations for the Nikkei 225 September rebal. </li>
<li>I had been writing for months about the nature of the decision tree, and one of those branches has, well, branched. </li>
<li>That changes my expectation for the Nikkei 225 Sep26 rebal, the third ADD has changed. And the ticker labelled atop this insight is not it.</li>
</ul>


Less than a week ago, I wrote about my expectations for the Nikkei 225 September rebal. 
I had been writing for months about the nature of the decision tree, and one of those branches has, well, branched. 
That changes my expectation for the Nikkei 225 Sep26 rebal, the third ADD has changed. And the ticker labelled atop this insight is not it.


[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep26 Rebal - Changing Horses on the Third ADD

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei 225 rebal for September 2026 has three months of data collection left out of the 5-year data period. It's mostly done for now. </li>
<li>The Quiddity team see 2-3 ADDs and 2-3 DELETEs and see Advantest capped. Two Auto ADDs (for now) and one sector ADD but the third delete feels problematic.</li>
<li>Things are moving quickly. Short-term flow ideas not based on tech vs rest of market are mostly meaningless. </li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 rebal for September 2026 has three months of data collection left out of the 5-year data period. It's mostly done for now. 
The Quiddity team see 2-3 ADDs and 2-3 DELETEs and see Advantest capped. Two Auto ADDs (for now) and one sector ADD but the third delete feels problematic.
Things are moving quickly. Short-term flow ideas not based on tech vs rest of market are mostly meaningless. 


[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep26 Rebal - 2 Auto ADDs, 1 Cap, Probably a Sector ADD

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei 225 Average Index Committee is in something of a weird spot. For the first time in a while there are two potential automatic ADDs. That needs two DELETEs.</li>
<li>But there is also a sector imbalance which is quite fierce. There are 3-4 good candidates going forward. One needs a stock split. There's one auto DELETE, but...</li>
<li>The other DELETEs should come from the Technology sector and they aren't close to the border. There are, however, two cappings in view helping the total towards US$6.9bn one-way flow.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 Average Index Committee is in something of a weird spot. For the first time in a while there are two potential automatic ADDs. That needs two DELETEs.
But there is also a sector imbalance which is quite fierce. There are 3-4 good candidates going forward. One needs a stock split. There's one auto DELETE, but...
The other DELETEs should come from the Technology sector and they aren't close to the border. There are, however, two cappings in view helping the total towards US$6.9bn one-way flow.


[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep26 Rebal - 2 Auto ADDs, M-A-Y-B-E 1 Extra, 2 Caps

Japan

Food & Life Companies Limited operates sushi restaurant chains. The Company operates kaiten sushi stores and restaurants, sushi takeout, sushi bars with snacks, and more. Food & Life Companies serves customers worldwide.

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Food & Life Cos (3563 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN - Stress Tests Part 1 - Altman Z-Scores

STRESS TESTS - This Insight is the first in a series that will use a variety of standard and less-frequently used 'stress-tests' to look through...

Campbell Gunn

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep26 Rebal - Changing Horses on the Top DELETE

Volume traded has removed the Top Delete candidate from the likely delete list for Sep26. That changes the calculus. I was leaning to 3 adds 3...

Travis Lundy

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep26 Rebal - Changing Horses on the Third ADD

The Nikkei 225 methodology doesn't refer to float. But the committee selecting names cares about it. One company announced a stock split Friday....

Travis Lundy

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep26 Rebal - 2 Auto ADDs, 1 Cap, Probably a Sector ADD

The Nikkei 225 data period is 95% complete. It looks like two auto ADDs and one auto DELETE. They could add Capcom as a sector add and the question...

Travis Lundy

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep26 Rebal - 2 Auto ADDs, M-A-Y-B-E 1 Extra, 2 Caps

The Nikkei 225 Sep 2026 rebal continues to evolve. The two auto ADDs remain the same. The auto DELETE continues to climb the rankings. Now there is...

Travis Lundy

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