Research from SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia), SCCM Asia Research

SCCM Asia Research

Research from SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia)

Headquartered in Singapore, SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia) is an investment bank focusing on emerging growth companies across Asia, providing a full suite of investment banking services, including corporate finance, mergers and acquisitions advisory, equity capital markets, institutional equities sales and trading and equities research.

SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia)

Equity Bottom-Up

Frasers Centrepoint Trust / Equity Bottom-Up

FY21 NPI/DPU met 94%/96% of our expectations as tenants’ sales continue to edge higher even as traffic wanes on Covid measures. We temper our expectations for FY22E spurt as we see potential for measures to be extended beyond the year and risk of further negative rental reversions. Nonetheless, gradual recovery story appears to be intact on resilient occupancies. We trim our DPU FY20-25E CAGR to 2.8% (prior: 3.2%). Reiterate BUY.

FY21 NPI/DPU met 94%/96% of our expectations as tenants’ sales continue to edge higher even as traffic wanes on Covid measures. We temper our expectations for FY22E spurt as we see potential for measures to be extended beyond the year and risk of further negative rental reversions. Nonetheless, gradual recovery story appears to be intact on resilient occupancies. We trim our DPU FY20-25E CAGR to 2.8% (prior: 3.2%). Reiterate BUY.

Frasers Centrepoint Trust: Tempering Our Expectations Post Site Visits

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>Singapore</h2>SREITs results in a glance (see detailed spreadsheet and calendar attached)<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/237/882/original/image_38758426221635344719889.png?1635344723" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="237882"></figure><h3><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/frasers-centrepoint-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2870" rel="noopener">Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT SP)</a> 2H21 DPU +39.3% YoY; Resilient occupancy and tenants’ sales amidst Phase-2 temporary setbacks</h3>2H21 revenue and NPI surged by 159.9% and 213.2% YoY, respectively, to S$167.5m and S$120.9m, mainly boosted by ARF acquisition. This brought FY21 revenue and NPI to S$341.2m (+107.5% YoY) and S$246.6m (+122.4%) or 96%/98% of BBG estimates, respectively. On a HoH basis, 2H21 revenue and NPI fell 3.5% and 3.8%, respectively, due to rental rebates provided to tenants in Sep21

SingaporeSREITs results in a glance (see detailed spreadsheet and calendar attached)Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT SP) 2H21 DPU +39.3% YoY; Resilient occupancy and tenants’ sales amidst Phase-2 temporary setbacks2H21 revenue and NPI surged by 159.9% and 213.2% YoY, respectively, to S$167.5m and S$120.9m, mainly boosted by ARF acquisition. This brought FY21 revenue and NPI to S$341.2m (+107.5% YoY) and S$246.6m (+122.4%) or 96%/98% of BBG estimates, respectively. On a HoH basis, 2H21 revenue and NPI fell 3.5% and 3.8%, respectively, due to rental rebates provided to tenants in Sep21

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

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 <div class='content-caption'>Retail SREIT</div>
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At over 80 per cent of the population, Singapore has one of the highest Covid-19 vaccination rates globally. Booster shots are also underway as part of efforts towards a progressive full reopening and strategy to treat Covid-19 as endemic.

Sectors such as retail, travel and hospitality remain poised to benefit in the long run as borders reopen progressively and social activities return.

Singapore is working on establishing a vaccinated travel lane with several countries including some European countries, the United States and South Korea. 
In the near term and somewhat physically closer to our homes, suburban malls have demonstrated relevance and resilience amid extended restrictions and Work-From-Home (WFH) trends with exposure to essential trades such as supermarkets and food and beverage outlets. 
There are five S-REITs with exposure to suburban-focused retail malls in Singapore – Frasers Centrepoint Trust, CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust, SPH REIT, Mapletree Commercial Trust, and Lendlease Global Commercial REIT through its 31.8 per cent indirect interest in JEM. These five have averaged 7.6 per cent in total returns in the year-to-date. 
These five have averaged 7.6 per cent in total returns in the year to date (YTD). 
Suburban malls are located near residential neighbourhoods and provide residents with necessities and convenience.

SPH Reit, which owns a portfolio of retail malls in Singapore and Australia, recently reported full-year fiscal year (FY) 2021 results.

Gross revenue increased 14.8 per cent year on year to S$277.2 million and net property income increased 11.4 per cent year on year to S$202.6 million.

Distribution per unit (DPU) for Q4 FY 2021 was 1.58 cents, bringing its full year DPU to 5.40 cents which is 98 per cent higher year on year and 3.6 per cent away from FY 2019's DPU (pre-Covid).

Despite softer leasing sentiments across its portfolio, SPH Reit noted that the defensive nature of suburban malls has supported tenant sales at The Clementi Mall, bringing it to pre-Covid levels and in line with resilient suburban malls' performances.

The Clementi Mall observed a 33 per cent decrease in footfall but a 5 per cent increase in tenant sales, mitigated by its close proximity to residential homes.

CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust has a portfolio of suburban retail malls including Bedok Mall, Junction 8, Tampines Mall, and Westgate.

In the Reit's earlier first half (H1) 2021 results announcement, it noted that retail tenant sales continued to outpace shopper traffic, with both improving more than 104 per cent year on year on a low base effect.

H1 2021 tenant sales have recovered to 86.3 per cent against the 2019 average while shopper traffic was at 61.3 per cent against 2019.

Frasers Centrepoint Trust has a portfolio of nine Singapore suburban retail malls.

In its earlier business update, the Reit's tenant sales had recovered to near pre-Covid levels at end 2020 and in early 2021, despite being impacted in the third quarter (Q3) 2021 from April to June due to the tightened control measures during Phase 2 (Heightened Alert).

Mapletree Commercial Trust's VivoCity mall also noted year-on-year improvements in shopper traffic and tenant sales in Q1 FY21/22 but recovery momentum was disrupted by re-tightened Covid-19 measures.

Aside from SPH Reit, the rest of the S-Reits will be reporting quarterly results and business updates over the next few weeks.  REIT Watch is a weekly column on The Business Times,<a href="https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/china-focused-s-reits-resilient-amid-onshore-property-focus"> </a><a href="https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/suburban-focused-retail-s-reits-average-76-in-total-returns-ytd">read </a>the original version.
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    Retail SREIT


At over 80 per cent of the population, Singapore has one of the highest Covid-19 vaccination rates globally. Booster shots are also underway as part of efforts towards a progressive full reopening and strategy to treat Covid-19 as endemic.

Sectors such as retail, travel and hospitality remain poised to benefit in the long run as borders reopen progressively and social activities return.

Singapore is working on establishing a vaccinated travel lane with several countries including some European countries, the United States and South Korea.  
In the near term and somewhat physically closer to our homes, suburban malls have demonstrated relevance and resilience amid extended restrictions and Work-From-Home (WFH) trends with exposure to essential trades such as supermarkets and food and beverage outlets.  
There are five S-REITs with exposure to suburban-focused retail malls in Singapore – Frasers Centrepoint Trust, CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust, SPH REIT, Mapletree Commercial Trust, and Lendlease Global Commercial REIT through its 31.8 per cent indirect interest in JEM. These five have averaged 7.6 per cent in total returns in the year-to-date.  
These five have averaged 7.6 per cent in total returns in the year to date (YTD).  
Suburban malls are located near residential neighbourhoods and provide residents with necessities and convenience.

SPH Reit, which owns a portfolio of retail malls in Singapore and Australia, recently reported full-year fiscal year (FY) 2021 results.

Gross revenue increased 14.8 per cent year on year to S$277.2 million and net property income increased 11.4 per cent year on year to S$202.6 million.

Distribution per unit (DPU) for Q4 FY 2021 was 1.58 cents, bringing its full year DPU to 5.40 cents which is 98 per cent higher year on year and 3.6 per cent away from FY 2019's DPU (pre-Covid).

Despite softer leasing sentiments across its portfolio, SPH Reit noted that the defensive nature of suburban malls has supported tenant sales at The Clementi Mall, bringing it to pre-Covid levels and in line with resilient suburban malls' performances.

The Clementi Mall observed a 33 per cent decrease in footfall but a 5 per cent increase in tenant sales, mitigated by its close proximity to residential homes.

CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust has a portfolio of suburban retail malls including Bedok Mall, Junction 8, Tampines Mall, and Westgate.

In the Reit's earlier first half (H1) 2021 results announcement, it noted that retail tenant sales continued to outpace shopper traffic, with both improving more than 104 per cent year on year on a low base effect.

H1 2021 tenant sales have recovered to 86.3 per cent against the 2019 average while shopper traffic was at 61.3 per cent against 2019.

Frasers Centrepoint Trust has a portfolio of nine Singapore suburban retail malls.

In its earlier business update, the Reit's tenant sales had recovered to near pre-Covid levels at end 2020 and in early 2021, despite being impacted in the third quarter (Q3) 2021 from April to June due to the tightened control measures during Phase 2 (Heightened Alert).

Mapletree Commercial Trust's VivoCity mall also noted year-on-year improvements in shopper traffic and tenant sales in Q1 FY21/22 but recovery momentum was disrupted by re-tightened Covid-19 measures.

Aside from SPH Reit, the rest of the S-Reits will be reporting quarterly results and business updates over the next few weeks.   REIT Watch is a weekly column on The Business Times, read the original version.



REIT Watch - Suburban-focused retail S-Reits average 7.6% in total returns YTD

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

On Friday 9 September, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-press-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9952:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Press Holdings (SPH SP)</a> shareholders voted to approve the Media Business Spinoff and the Proposed Restructuring which will allow SPH to spin off the various media assets and some supporting assets it has heretofore controlled into a new non-profit Company Limited by Guarantee.The idea is that the "lifting" of the restrictions of the Newspaper Printing and Presses Act (“NPPA”) would then provide SPH "with greater financial flexibility to tailor its capital and shareholding structure to unlock and maximise value for all shareholders."As discussed first in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/singapore-press-own-time-own-target-restructuring-lor-come-i-clap-for-you" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51141" rel="noopener">Singapore Press Own Time Own Target Restructuring Lor... (Come I Clap For You)</a>, the upside did not seem huge. A few months later SPH decided that the rest of the business would be taken over by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keppel-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12:1" rel="noopener">Keppel Corp (KEP SP)</a> in return for a basket of cash, units of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sph-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5994:1" rel="noopener">SPH REIT (SPHREIT SP)</a> and units in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keppel-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:192:1" rel="noopener">Keppel REIT (KREIT SP)</a>. This was discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/alamak-sph-restructuring-restructured-as-keppel-bo-jios-sph-holders" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:55370" rel="noopener">Alamak! SPH Restructuring Restructured as Keppel Bo Jios SPH Holders</a>, and at that, the upside did not seem huge. The price jumped from a div-adjusted S$1.88/share before the Keppel news to S$1.92/unit to close some of the gap. The remaining spread is now quite small at a bit less than 10cts on a forward div-adjusted basis, or about 5%.<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/229/249/original/Screenshot+2021-09-11+at+2.04.22+PM.png?1631340279" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="229249"></figure></section>From the day before the Keppel announcement until now, the value of the non-cash portion of the Consideration (i.e. the 0.596 units of KREIT and the 0.782 units of SPH REIT) have fallen 2.55% in value while the value of an equal weighted Peer Basket of REITs has fallen 2.45%. That tells you that despite the first-day drop in the value of SPH REIT and Keppel REIT resulting from market participants' expectation that hedging pressure on those two REITs would cause them to underperform the market, the underperformance has been minimal. I expect the high cost of borrow and relative illiquidity of S-REITs has limited the appeal of the arb to arbitrageurs.Now we wait for the EGM to approve the distribution of SPH REIT units and the Scheme Meeting to dispose of the SPH business in return for KREIT units and cash. That should happen in the October/November timeframe.In the meantime, we check progress of the arb, and what the value of the Consideration is compared to a comparable Peer Basket.

On Friday 9 September, Singapore Press Holdings (SPH SP) shareholders voted to approve the Media Business Spinoff and the Proposed Restructuring which will allow SPH to spin off the various media assets and some supporting assets it has heretofore controlled into a new non-profit Company Limited by Guarantee.The idea is that the "lifting" of the restrictions of the Newspaper Printing and Presses Act (“NPPA”) would then provide SPH "with greater financial flexibility to tailor its capital and shareholding structure to unlock and maximise value for all shareholders."As discussed first in Singapore Press Own Time Own Target Restructuring Lor... (Come I Clap For You), the upside did not seem huge. A few months later SPH decided that the rest of the business would be taken over by Keppel Corp (KEP SP) in return for a basket of cash, units of SPH REIT (SPHREIT SP) and units in Keppel REIT (KREIT SP). This was discussed in Alamak! SPH Restructuring Restructured as Keppel Bo Jios SPH Holders, and at that, the upside did not seem huge. The price jumped from a div-adjusted S$1.88/share before the Keppel news to S$1.92/unit to close some of the gap. The remaining spread is now quite small at a bit less than 10cts on a forward div-adjusted basis, or about 5%.From the day before the Keppel announcement until now, the value of the non-cash portion of the Consideration (i.e. the 0.596 units of KREIT and the 0.782 units of SPH REIT) have fallen 2.55% in value while the value of an equal weighted Peer Basket of REITs has fallen 2.45%. That tells you that despite the first-day drop in the value of SPH REIT and Keppel REIT resulting from market participants' expectation that hedging pressure on those two REITs would cause them to underperform the market, the underperformance has been minimal. I expect the high cost of borrow and relative illiquidity of S-REITs has limited the appeal of the arb to arbitrageurs.Now we wait for the EGM to approve the distribution of SPH REIT units and the Scheme Meeting to dispose of the SPH business in return for KREIT units and cash. That should happen in the October/November timeframe.In the meantime, we check progress of the arb, and what the value of the Consideration is compared to a comparable Peer Basket.

SPH Shareholders Approve Spinoff - There's Still a Spread To Earn

<h2>Singapore</h2><h3>SREITs results in a glance (see detailed spreadsheet and calendar attached)</h3><table class="table table-striped"><tbody><tr><td style="width: 242.047px;"> </td><td style="width: 241.969px;">FCT</td><td style="width: 241.984px;">EREIT</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 242.047px;">Period</td><td style="width: 241.969px;">3Q21</td><td style="width: 241.984px;">2Q21</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 242.047px;">Gross Revenue (S$ m)</td><td style="width: 241.969px;">Not Disclosed</td><td style="width: 241.984px;">59.5 (+6.25% YoY)</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 242.047px;">NPI (S$ m)</td><td style="width: 241.969px;">Not Disclosed</td><td style="width: 241.984px;">42.9 (+9.4% YoY)</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 242.047px;">DPU (S$ c)</td><td style="width: 241.969px;">Not Disclosed</td><td style="width: 241.984px;">0.754 (13.9% YoY)</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 242.047px;">NAV per Unit (S$)</td><td style="width: 241.969px;">2.31 (Based on 1H21 NAV)</td><td style="width: 241.984px;">0.398</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 242.047px;">P/B (x)</td><td style="width: 241.969px;">1.04 (Based on 1H21 NAV)</td><td style="width: 241.984px;">1.1</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 242.047px;">Occupancy (%)</td><td style="width: 241.969px;">96.4</td><td style="width: 241.984px;">91.7</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 242.047px;">Reversion (%)</td><td style="width: 241.969px;">Not Disclosed</td><td style="width: 241.984px;">-0.2</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 242.047px;">Gearing (%)</td><td style="width: 241.969px;">33.9</td><td style="width: 241.984px;">42.9</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 242.047px;">Cost of Debt (%)</td><td style="width: 241.969px;">2.2</td><td style="width: 241.984px;">3.24</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 242.047px;">1 Yr Fwd Yield (%)</td><td style="width: 241.969px;">5.02</td><td style="width: 241.984px;">7.05</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 242.047px;">Debt Hedged (%)</td><td style="width: 241.969px;">59</td><td style="width: 241.984px;">75</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 242.047px;">Target Price</td><td style="width: 241.969px;">S$2.89</td><td style="width: 241.984px;">N/A</td></tr><tr><td style="width: 242.047px;">Rating</td><td style="width: 241.969px;">BUY</td><td style="width: 241.984px;">Under Review</td></tr></tbody></table>

SingaporeSREITs results in a glance (see detailed spreadsheet and calendar attached) FCTEREITPeriod3Q212Q21Gross Revenue (S$ m)Not Disclosed59.5 (+6.25% YoY)NPI (S$ m)Not Disclosed42.9 (+9.4% YoY)DPU (S$ c)Not Disclosed0.754 (13.9% YoY)NAV per Unit (S$)2.31 (Based on 1H21 NAV)0.398P/B (x)1.04 (Based on 1H21 NAV)1.1Occupancy (%)96.491.7Reversion (%)Not Disclosed-0.2Gearing (%)33.942.9Cost of Debt (%)2.23.241 Yr Fwd Yield (%)5.027.05Debt Hedged (%)5975Target PriceS$2.89N/ARatingBUYUnder Review

ASEAN Builder's Scoop (23Jul21) - FCT Resilient Amidst Phase-2 Setback

Singapore

Frasers Centrepoint Trust is a retail real estate investment trust focused on growing unitholder value through asset management, financial management and strategic investments.  The trust invests in retail properties in Singapore and overseas.

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Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT SP)

Frasers Centrepoint Trust: Tempering Our Expectations Post Site Visits

FY21 NPI/DPU met 94%/96% of our expectations as tenants’ sales continue to edge higher even as traffic wanes on Covid measures.

SCCM Asia Research

ASEAN Builder's Scoop (27Oct21)

FCT temporary hiccups; EREIT persistent negative reversions; MINT boosted by US acquisitions; LMRT early signs of recovery; FIRT performance...

SCCM Asia Research

REIT Watch - Suburban-focused retail S-Reits average 7.6% in total returns YTD

At over 80 per cent of the population, Singapore has one of the highest Covid-19 vaccination rates globally. Booster shots are...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

SPH Shareholders Approve Spinoff - There's Still a Spread To Earn

SPH shareholders approve the Media Biz spinoff, now there are ~4mos left until payout (assuming EGM/Scheme Mtg in Oct/Nov gives the thumbs up)....

Travis Lundy

ASEAN Builder's Scoop (23Jul21) - FCT Resilient Amidst Phase-2 Setback

FCT resilient amidst phase-2 setback; EREIT operations remain healthy; SSREIT removing syariah compliance; 2Q21 Industrial rents, prices up; APLN...

SCCM Asia Research

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