Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Market sentiment shifted to distressed as the Nikkei plunged over 2,800 points on Monday—its third-largest point drop ever—entering correction from a February peak.</li>
<li>The escalating Middle East war, with the Strait of Hormuz closed and Iran's new leader vowing resistance, drove Brent crude to spike to $119/barrel before stabilizing near $100.</li>
<li>Investors await the March 19 BOJ meeting, expecting a rate hold but hypersensitive to any hawkish shift to stem yen weakness, as the early-2026 Takaichi Rally hangs by a thread.</li>
</ul>


Market sentiment shifted to distressed as the Nikkei plunged over 2,800 points on Monday—its third-largest point drop ever—entering correction from a February peak.
The escalating Middle East war, with the Strait of Hormuz closed and Iran's new leader vowing resistance, drove Brent crude to spike to $119/barrel before stabilizing near $100.
Investors await the March 19 BOJ meeting, expecting a rate hold but hypersensitive to any hawkish shift to stem yen weakness, as the early-2026 Takaichi Rally hangs by a thread.


Japan Strategy Weekly | The Nikkei’s "Black Monday" And Beyond

<ul>
<li>Japanese equities fell after record highs as Middle East tensions pushed oil higher, triggering global risk-off sentiment and exposing Japan’s vulnerability as a major energy importer.</li>
<li>Oil shock hit energy-sensitive sectors: airlines, rubber and brokers fell, while mining and shipping gained; sell-off was broad with momentum reversal and defensives outperforming.</li>
<li>Stock moves diverged: SaaS firms rose on earnings stability, Rohm surged on takeover news, while Sumitomo Metal Mining and Sumitomo Rubber plunged on commodity and oil risks.</li>
</ul>


Japanese equities fell after record highs as Middle East tensions pushed oil higher, triggering global risk-off sentiment and exposing Japan’s vulnerability as a major energy importer.
Oil shock hit energy-sensitive sectors: airlines, rubber and brokers fell, while mining and shipping gained; sell-off was broad with momentum reversal and defensives outperforming.
Stock moves diverged: SaaS firms rose on earnings stability, Rohm surged on takeover news, while Sumitomo Metal Mining and Sumitomo Rubber plunged on commodity and oil risks.


Japan Strategy Weekly | Oil Shock Tests a Crowded Rally

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
 Take profit ahead of 3Q: at ¥6,020, Money Forward has effectively reached our ¥6,030 DCF value. </li>
<li>
Strong results largely anticipated: HIRAC boosts headline EBITDA, while a guidance raise is increasingly priced into ~5x FY26E sales. </li>
<li>
Risk/Reward has shifted: limited valuation cushion makes protecting gains ahead of a potentially noisy 3Q print prudent.</li>
</ul>



 Take profit ahead of 3Q: at ¥6,020, Money Forward has effectively reached our ¥6,030 DCF value. 

Strong results largely anticipated: HIRAC boosts headline EBITDA, while a guidance raise is increasingly priced into ~5x FY26E sales. 

Risk/Reward has shifted: limited valuation cushion makes protecting gains ahead of a potentially noisy 3Q print prudent.


Money Forward (3994 JP) | Take Profit Ahead of 3Q. The Price Has Caught Up.

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 28 August, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/base-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28353:1" rel="noopener">BASE Inc (4477 JP)</a> announced an offer by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10928:1" rel="noopener">SBI Holdings (8473 JP)</a> to acquire up to 23.8m shares (20.00% stake) at JPY340, a 7.6% premium to the undisturbed price. </li>
<li>There is no minimum acceptance condition. The shares are trading above the offer price, either due to expectations of a bump or to the SBI alliance benefiting the back-end valuation.</li>
<li>A price bump is likely as the offer is light on several metrics, the two substantial shareholders are unlikely to tender, and the Board has taken a neutral stance. </li>
</ul>


On 28 August, BASE Inc (4477 JP) announced an offer by SBI Holdings (8473 JP) to acquire up to 23.8m shares (20.00% stake) at JPY340, a 7.6% premium to the undisturbed price. 
There is no minimum acceptance condition. The shares are trading above the offer price, either due to expectations of a bump or to the SBI alliance benefiting the back-end valuation.
A price bump is likely as the offer is light on several metrics, the two substantial shareholders are unlikely to tender, and the Board has taken a neutral stance. 


BASE (4477 JP): SBI’s Partial Tender Offer Needs a Price Bump

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the support at 1,378/1,373 points and the resistance at 1,387/1,395 points (50-day and 75-day EMAs), pending clarity on the FOMC meeting (the result will be known tonight).</li><li>KTX anticipates the Fed to reduce the policy interest rate for the first time in 4Q24E and adjust the dot plot to indicate one rate cut (vs. three rate cuts previously).</li><li>KTX views that for China to achieve its 5% growth target this year, the authorities must employ more robust measures than those utilized last year.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the support at 1,378/1,373 points and the resistance at 1,387/1,395 points (50-day and 75-day EMAs), pending clarity on the FOMC meeting (the result will be known tonight).KTX anticipates the Fed to reduce the policy interest rate for the first time in 4Q24E and adjust the dot plot to indicate one rate cut (vs. three rate cuts previously).KTX views that for China to achieve its 5% growth target this year, the authorities must employ more robust measures than those utilized last year.

Keep a Close Watch on FOMC Meeting and China's Policy Interest Rates

Japan

freee K.K. develops software products. The Company produces cloud based accounting softwares, automatic online accounting systems, and other products. freee provides its services throughout Japan.

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Freee (4478 JP)

Japan Strategy Weekly | The Nikkei’s "Black Monday" And Beyond

Market sentiment shifts to distressed as Nikkei plunges over 2,800 points, Brent crude spikes due to Middle East tensions, investors cautious...

Mark Chadwick

Japan Strategy Weekly | Oil Shock Tests a Crowded Rally

Japanese equities fell due to record highs and Middle East tensions pushing oil prices higher, exposing vulnerability as a major energy importer.

Mark Chadwick

Money Forward (3994 JP) | Take Profit Ahead of 3Q. The Price Has Caught Up.

Q3 Preview: The headline numbers should be strong, but will include material one-offs. A routine beat-and-raise may therefore be insufficient to...

Mark Chadwick

BASE (4477 JP): SBI’s Partial Tender Offer Needs a Price Bump

A price bump is likely as the offer is light on several metrics, the two substantial shareholders are unlikely to tender, and the Board has taken a...

Arun George

Keep a Close Watch on FOMC Meeting and China's Policy Interest Rates

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the support at 1,378/1,373 points and the resistance at 1,387/1,395 points (50-day...

Krungthai XSpring

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Strategy Weekly | The Nikkei’s "Black Monday" And Beyond

​Market sentiment shifts to distressed as Nikkei plunges over 2,800 points, Brent crude spikes due to Middle East tensions, investors cautious...

Mark Chadwick

Japan Strategy Weekly | Oil Shock Tests a Crowded Rally

​Japanese equities fell due to record highs and Middle East tensions pushing oil prices higher, exposing vulnerability as a major energy importer.

Mark Chadwick

Money Forward (3994 JP) | Take Profit Ahead of 3Q. The Price Has Caught Up.

Q3 Preview: The headline numbers should be strong, but will include material one-offs. A routine beat-and-raise may therefore be insufficient to...

Mark Chadwick

BASE (4477 JP): SBI’s Partial Tender Offer Needs a Price Bump

A price bump is likely as the offer is light on several metrics, the two substantial shareholders are unlikely to tender, and the Board has taken a...

Arun George

Keep a Close Watch on FOMC Meeting and China's Policy Interest Rates

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the support at 1,378/1,373 points and the resistance at 1,387/1,395 points (50-day...

Krungthai XSpring

Market sentiment shifts to distressed as Nikkei plunges over 2,800 points, Brent crude spikes due to Middle East tensions, investors cautious...

Japanese equities fell due to record highs and Middle East tensions pushing oil prices higher, exposing vulnerability as a major energy importer.