HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation / Equity Bottom-Up

COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation (1138 HK)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-energy-tran-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:646:1" rel="noopener">Cosco Shipping Energy (1138 HK)</a> has a significant 91.5% rally YTD. However, the market seems to have assumed that the current elevated VLCC rate is sustainable, and we doubt it.</li>
<li>Despite the attack on Iran and the paralysis of the Strait of Hormuz, history has taught us that such an outrageous rate level will normalise within a couple of months.  </li>
<li>Its 2x P/B is 4SD higher than the average since FY22. To justify it, the FY26 net profit needs to be 4.4x above the consensus - this is not possible. </li>
</ul>



Cosco Shipping Energy (1138 HK) has a significant 91.5% rally YTD. However, the market seems to have assumed that the current elevated VLCC rate is sustainable, and we doubt it.
Despite the attack on Iran and the paralysis of the Strait of Hormuz, history has taught us that such an outrageous rate level will normalise within a couple of months.  
Its 2x P/B is 4SD higher than the average since FY22. To justify it, the FY26 net profit needs to be 4.4x above the consensus - this is not possible. 


COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): Is It Too Stretched?

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
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<ul><li>Frontline plc's recent quarterly earnings report indicates a mixed performance amidst a dynamic market environment.</li><li>The company's financial outcomes and strategic position involve both positive aspects as well as areas of concern, which collectively emphasize management's cautious optimism.</li><li>During the first quarter of 2025, Frontline reported a profit of $33.3 million, or $0.15 per share, while adjusted profit totaled $40.4 million, or $0.18 per share.</li></ul>

Frontline plc's recent quarterly earnings report indicates a mixed performance amidst a dynamic market environment.The company's financial outcomes and strategic position involve both positive aspects as well as areas of concern, which collectively emphasize management's cautious optimism.During the first quarter of 2025, Frontline reported a profit of $33.3 million, or $0.15 per share, while adjusted profit totaled $40.4 million, or $0.18 per share.

Frontline Ltd Eyes a Spot Market Surge—Will Regulatory Shifts Unlock a New Profit Cycle?

<ul><li>Frontline plc, a prominent player in the tanker industry, recently held its fourth quarter 2024 results conference.</li><li>The discussion highlighted the company's financial performance, fleet status, market conditions, and potential future impacts of geopolitical factors affecting the global oil trade.</li><li>In terms of financial performance, Frontline reported a profit of $66.7 million for the quarter, translating to $0.30 per share, while the adjusted profit stood at $45.1 million or $0.20 per share.</li></ul>

Frontline plc, a prominent player in the tanker industry, recently held its fourth quarter 2024 results conference.The discussion highlighted the company's financial performance, fleet status, market conditions, and potential future impacts of geopolitical factors affecting the global oil trade.In terms of financial performance, Frontline reported a profit of $66.7 million for the quarter, translating to $0.30 per share, while the adjusted profit stood at $45.1 million or $0.20 per share.

Frontline Ltd: Will The Recent Adjustments in Crude Oil Trade Patterns Have A Positive Impact?

<ul><li>Frontline plc's Q3 2024 financial results indicate a complex and challenging environment for the company, characterized by mixed external factors influencing market dynamics.</li><li>The company recorded a profit of $60.5 million for the quarter, translating to $0.27 per share, and an adjusted profit of $75.4 million or $0.34 per share.</li><li>This represents a decline in adjusted profit by $62.8 million from the previous quarter, largely due to decreased time charter equivalent (TCE) earnings which fell from $357.7 million to $292.2 million quarter-over-quarter.</li></ul>

Frontline plc's Q3 2024 financial results indicate a complex and challenging environment for the company, characterized by mixed external factors influencing market dynamics.The company recorded a profit of $60.5 million for the quarter, translating to $0.27 per share, and an adjusted profit of $75.4 million or $0.34 per share.This represents a decline in adjusted profit by $62.8 million from the previous quarter, largely due to decreased time charter equivalent (TCE) earnings which fell from $357.7 million to $292.2 million quarter-over-quarter.

Frontline Plc.: An Analysis Of Its Fleet Modernization & Expansion! - Major Drivers

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

<ul>
<li>Speculative liquidation of crude oil positions opens up an opportunity</li>
<li>A seasonally strong period for crude tanker rates coming up</li>
<li>Company option scheme for senior management approved. Strike above current price</li>
</ul>


Speculative liquidation of crude oil positions opens up an opportunity
A seasonally strong period for crude tanker rates coming up
Company option scheme for senior management approved. Strike above current price


Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation - Capitulation in Oil and Related Equities Almost Complete?

Norway

Frontline PLC owns a fleet of very large crude carriers and tankers that transport crude oil and oil products between ports. The Company's vessels are managed by ship management companies. Frontline conducts activities worldwide.

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Frontline (FRO US)

COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): Is It Too Stretched?

CSET's impressive YTD rally may be unsustainable as the market assumes elevated VLCC rates will continue, but history suggests otherwise. Its P/B...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Frontline Ltd Eyes a Spot Market Surge—Will Regulatory Shifts Unlock a New Profit Cycle?

Frontline plc's recent quarterly earnings report indicates a mixed performance amidst a dynamic market environment. The company's financial...

Baptista Research

Frontline Ltd: Will The Recent Adjustments in Crude Oil Trade Patterns Have A Positive Impact?

Frontline plc, a prominent player in the tanker industry, recently held its fourth quarter 2024 results conference. The discussion highlighted the...

Baptista Research

Frontline Plc.: An Analysis Of Its Fleet Modernization & Expansion! - Major Drivers

Frontline plc's Q3 2024 financial results indicate a complex and challenging environment for the company, characterized by mixed external factors...

Baptista Research

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

COSCO Shipping Energy (1138 HK): Is It Too Stretched?

​CSET's impressive YTD rally may be unsustainable as the market assumes elevated VLCC rates will continue, but history suggests otherwise. Its P/B...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Frontline Ltd Eyes a Spot Market Surge—Will Regulatory Shifts Unlock a New Profit Cycle?

Frontline plc's recent quarterly earnings report indicates a mixed performance amidst a dynamic market environment. The company's financial...

Baptista Research

Frontline Ltd: Will The Recent Adjustments in Crude Oil Trade Patterns Have A Positive Impact?

Frontline plc, a prominent player in the tanker industry, recently held its fourth quarter 2024 results conference. The discussion highlighted the...

Baptista Research

Frontline Plc.: An Analysis Of Its Fleet Modernization & Expansion! - Major Drivers

Frontline plc's Q3 2024 financial results indicate a complex and challenging environment for the company, characterized by mixed external factors...

Baptista Research

Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation - Capitulation in Oil and Related Equities Almost Complete?

Although this piece timed the bottom to the day, there is more upside. It is still a laggard as it is "only" up ~40% from a depressed price....

Rikki Malik

CSET's impressive YTD rally may be unsustainable as the market assumes elevated VLCC rates will continue, but history suggests otherwise. Its P/B...