Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Analyzing Asian markets' long term return cyclicality, we notice that the durations of upcycles and downcycles vary across markets. Within the same market, often the upcycle and downcycle durations differ.</li>
<li>We conclude that in Q4 2025, Korea, Taiwan and Philippines are likely to move up. Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Thailand and Singapore seem likely to decline.</li>
<li>An obvious caveat is: this method of predicting returns involves purely pattern recognition, not fundamental reasoning. While the markets mostly adhere to the observed patterns, they don’t <em>always</em> do so.</li>
</ul>


Analyzing Asian markets' long term return cyclicality, we notice that the durations of upcycles and downcycles vary across markets. Within the same market, often the upcycle and downcycle durations differ.
We conclude that in Q4 2025, Korea, Taiwan and Philippines are likely to move up. Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Thailand and Singapore seem likely to decline.
An obvious caveat is: this method of predicting returns involves purely pattern recognition, not fundamental reasoning. While the markets mostly adhere to the observed patterns, they don’t always do so.


Asian Equities: Cyclical Return Patterns – a Long-Term Analysis

Dealing, Product Financing and Custody Services, Tickrs

Tickrs

Dealing, Product Financing and Custody Services

Tickrs Financial Singapore Pte Ltd (TFS) obtained Capital Markets Services (CMS) License from the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) in 2022. Product offering include stock trading services across 10 global markets, futures trading, fixed income and wealth management products offering.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Singapore’s S$5 Billion Equity Market Development Programme – Impact and Analysis A brighter horizon for Singapore’s stock market: MAS’s S$5 billion initiative sets the stage for revitalization.</li><li>Introduction Originally announced in February 2025 as part of MAS’s broader capital markets strategy, the S$5 billion Equity Market Development Programme (EQDP) reached a major milestone in July 2025 with the appointment of its first batch of fund managers — Avanda, Fullerton, and J.P.</li><li>Morgan Asset Management — and the commencement of actual capital deployment.</li></ul>

Singapore’s S$5 Billion Equity Market Development Programme – Impact and Analysis A brighter horizon for Singapore’s stock market: MAS’s S$5 billion initiative sets the stage for revitalization.Introduction Originally announced in February 2025 as part of MAS’s broader capital markets strategy, the S$5 billion Equity Market Development Programme (EQDP) reached a major milestone in July 2025 with the appointment of its first batch of fund managers — Avanda, Fullerton, and J.P.Morgan Asset Management — and the commencement of actual capital deployment.

Singapore’s S$5 Billion Equity Market Development Programme – Impact and Analysis

The New Standard in Wealth Management, Wealth Management Alliance

Wealth Management Alliance

The New Standard in Wealth Management

WMA is a Singapore-based multi-family office with a Capital Markets Services license and provide fund management and investment advisory services to a small number of global UHNW clients. We also act as incubator for single-family offices, allowing them to plug into our broader ecosystem and infrastructure, and tap on our investment professionals for advice. WMA is designed around providing truly bespoke advice to each client, rather than taking a one-size-fits-all approach that may not fit each client's investment objectives and risk tolerances. On top of that, we are designed so that we avoid any semblance of conflicts of interests by being compensated only by the client (which may include profit sharing), as opposed to the model that many of our peers adopt, which include compensation from a variety of third parties such as funds managers, distributors or banks. That, to us, is the easiest way to be firmly on the side of the client in every decision we make.

<ul><li>Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) unexpectedly fell 3.5% y/y in May, the worst in seven months.</li><li>The contraction was led by a slump in exports to the US (-20.6% y/y), suggesting that the front-loading ahead of US tariffs has faded.</li><li>Meanwhile, manufacturing PMI has slipped into the contractionary zone since April, last seen nearly two years ago.</li></ul>

Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) unexpectedly fell 3.5% y/y in May, the worst in seven months.The contraction was led by a slump in exports to the US (-20.6% y/y), suggesting that the front-loading ahead of US tariffs has faded.Meanwhile, manufacturing PMI has slipped into the contractionary zone since April, last seen nearly two years ago.

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>As we had forecast in Sep'24, the S$NEER has depreciated since the Oct'24 policy statement (despite officially unchanged policy). SS$NEER likely to depreciate further, with SGD reaching S$1.39/US$ by end-Mar'25. </li>
<li>The productivity rebound, bolstered by 10%YoY growth in machinery investment in Q3/24, enabled ULCs to moderate, rising just 0.9%YoY economy-wide (slowest in 4 years), helping contain headline and core inflation.</li>
<li>We expect inflation to remain below 2%YoY in 2025, while real GDP grows 3.2% (above the government's "1 to 3%" growth forecast), driven by investment and productivity growth in H1.</li>
</ul>


As we had forecast in Sep'24, the S$NEER has depreciated since the Oct'24 policy statement (despite officially unchanged policy). SS$NEER likely to depreciate further, with SGD reaching S$1.39/US$ by end-Mar'25. 
The productivity rebound, bolstered by 10%YoY growth in machinery investment in Q3/24, enabled ULCs to moderate, rising just 0.9%YoY economy-wide (slowest in 4 years), helping contain headline and core inflation.
We expect inflation to remain below 2%YoY in 2025, while real GDP grows 3.2% (above the government's "1 to 3%" growth forecast), driven by investment and productivity growth in H1.


Singapore: Early to Ease Amid Receding Inflation, Helped by Productivity Rebound

<ul>
<li>Productivity has declined 0.95%YoY on average over the latest 8 quarters, with Singapore's economic growth depending entirely on rather rapid 4.85%YoY average growth in employment. </li>
<li>Jun'24's 6.7%YoY decline in real NODX indicates real GDP growth for Q2CY24 will be revised down to 2.5%YoY (from the 2.9% advance estimate); strong re-exports also suggest manufacturing's declining competitiveness. </li>
<li>Fiscal policy has returned to its contractionary norm, with this year's surplus likely to be over 1% of GDP, reining-in RGDP growth to 2% for 2024 (and 1.3%YoY for H2CY24). </li>
</ul>


Productivity has declined 0.95%YoY on average over the latest 8 quarters, with Singapore's economic growth depending entirely on rather rapid 4.85%YoY average growth in employment. 
Jun'24's 6.7%YoY decline in real NODX indicates real GDP growth for Q2CY24 will be revised down to 2.5%YoY (from the 2.9% advance estimate); strong re-exports also suggest manufacturing's declining competitiveness. 
Fiscal policy has returned to its contractionary norm, with this year's surplus likely to be over 1% of GDP, reining-in RGDP growth to 2% for 2024 (and 1.3%YoY for H2CY24). 


Singapore: Signs of 'Dutch Disease' as Cyclical NODX Slumps Amid Property Surge

Singapore

The Straits Times Index (STI), maintained & calculated by FTSE, is the most globally-recognised benchmark index and market barometer for Singapore. Dating back to 1966, it tracks the performance of the top 30 largest and most liquid companies listed on the Singapore Exchange. *Ticker changed from FSSTI on 10/9/2015. **Also revamped on January 10, 2008, for prices prior to that see STIOLD Index.

FTSE Straits Times Index (STI) (STI INDEX)

FTSE Straits Times Index (STI) (STI INDEX)

Asian Equities: Cyclical Return Patterns – a Long-Term Analysis

Asian markets' quarterly returns show varying upcycle and downcycle durations. We expect Korea, Taiwan, & Philippines to rise in Q4 25 while HK,...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Singapore’s S$5 Billion Equity Market Development Programme – Impact and Analysis

Singapore’s S$5 Billion Equity Market Development Programme – Impact and Analysis A brighter horizon for Singapore’s stock market: MAS’s S$5...

Tickrs

Singapore Equity Strategy: June 2025

Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) unexpectedly fell 3.5% y/y in May, the worst in seven months. The contraction was led by a slump...

Wealth Management Alliance

Singapore: Early to Ease Amid Receding Inflation, Helped by Productivity Rebound

Strong productivity growth reduces ULCs & inflation. S$NEER likely to depreciate further, inflation to stay below 2% in 2025, with RGDP growth of...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Singapore: Signs of 'Dutch Disease' as Cyclical NODX Slumps Amid Property Surge

Productivity declined 1%YoY (avg) over last 8 quarters, as RGDP depended on 4.9%YoY employment growth. RGDP likely to grow 2% in 2024, reflecting...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Asian Equities: Cyclical Return Patterns – a Long-Term Analysis

​Asian markets' quarterly returns show varying upcycle and downcycle durations. We expect Korea, Taiwan, & Philippines to rise in Q4 25 while HK,...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Singapore’s S$5 Billion Equity Market Development Programme – Impact and Analysis

Singapore’s S$5 Billion Equity Market Development Programme – Impact and Analysis A brighter horizon for Singapore’s stock market: MAS’s S$5...

Tickrs

Singapore Equity Strategy: June 2025

Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) unexpectedly fell 3.5% y/y in May, the worst in seven months. The contraction was led by a slump...

Wealth Management Alliance

Singapore: Early to Ease Amid Receding Inflation, Helped by Productivity Rebound

Strong productivity growth reduces ULCs & inflation. ​S$NEER likely to depreciate further, inflation to stay below 2% in 2025, with RGDP growth of...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Singapore: Signs of 'Dutch Disease' as Cyclical NODX Slumps Amid Property Surge

Productivity declined 1%YoY (avg) over last 8 quarters, as RGDP depended on 4.9%YoY employment growth. RGDP likely to grow 2% in 2024, reflecting...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Asian markets' quarterly returns show varying upcycle and downcycle durations. We expect Korea, Taiwan, & Philippines to rise in Q4 25 while HK,...

Singapore’s S$5 Billion Equity Market Development Programme – Impact and Analysis

Strong productivity growth reduces ULCs & inflation. S$NEER likely to depreciate further, inflation to stay below 2% in 2025, with RGDP growth of...