Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Key support levels on global equity indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) are beginning to break as the U.S. dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield break above $105.70 and 4.35%.</li>
<li>This significantly increases the odds of a break below major $92-$93 support on $ACWI, and we would shift to a more cautious outlook only on a break below $92.</li>
<li>We shifted to overweight value within non-U.S. equities last week, and we are now also shifting to overweight small-caps within non-U.S. equities as well. Buys in Transportation, Communications, and HealthCare</li>
</ul>


Key support levels on global equity indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) are beginning to break as the U.S. dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield break above $105.70 and 4.35%.
This significantly increases the odds of a break below major $92-$93 support on $ACWI, and we would shift to a more cautious outlook only on a break below $92.
We shifted to overweight value within non-U.S. equities last week, and we are now also shifting to overweight small-caps within non-U.S. equities as well. Buys in Transportation, Communications, and HealthCare


Supports Starting to Break; Upgrading Non-U.S. Small-Caps to Overweight; Transports/Comm/HC Buys

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Kao: Oasis is calling an EGM to protect shareholders following whistle blower allegations over Kao’s supply chain practices</li>
<li>Kadokawa: Activists and strategics are circling a cheap IP-rich asset with underwhelming execution.</li>
<li>Fuji Media: completed a ¥235bn buyback (~30% of shares) under activist pressure, shrinking its equity base. S-Grant rebuilding stake for further action</li>
</ul>


Kao: Oasis is calling an EGM to protect shareholders following whistle blower allegations over Kao’s supply chain practices
Kadokawa: Activists and strategics are circling a cheap IP-rich asset with underwhelming execution.
Fuji Media: completed a ¥235bn buyback (~30% of shares) under activist pressure, shrinking its equity base. S-Grant rebuilding stake for further action


Japan Activist Briefs | Kao, Kadokawa, Fuji Media

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For February 2026, 12 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$7bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in February was ~42%.</li>
<li>The average premiums for transactions in 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, and 2019 were 49%, 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.</li>
</ul>


For February 2026, 12 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$7bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in February was ~42%.
The average premiums for transactions in 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, and 2019 were 49%, 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.


Asia-Pac M&A, Feb 2026 Wrap: MCJ, Magnetic Res, Inforich, Pepper Money, Takara Bio, Qoria

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/173/867/original/2020-11-25_11-14-58.png?1606270511" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="173867"></figure></section><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div>FOUR QUADRANTS - By combining our two scoring methodologies - the Relative Price Score (RPS) and the Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS), we can assign companies into four quadrants:-<ul>
<li>
CONTRARIAN BUYS - Companies with low Results &amp; Revision and Relative Price Scores</li>
<li>
CONTRARIAN SELLS - Companies with high Results &amp; Revision and Relative Price Scores</li>
<li>
TURNAROUNDS - Companies with high Results &amp; Revision Scores &amp; low Relative Price Scores</li>
<li>
EX-GROWTH - Companies with low Results &amp; Revision Scores &amp; high Relative Price Scores</li>
</ul>In the two Contrarian quadrants, companies can remain outliers for extended periods, such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jfe-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:210:1" rel="noopener">JFE (5411 JP)</a>  in Buys, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lasertec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4126:1" rel="noopener">Lasertec (6920 JP)</a> in Sells. The other quadrants see much more 'turnover' and van can offer profitable trading opportunities such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lixil-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:454:1" rel="noopener">Lixil(5938 JP)</a> in Turnarounds, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ariake-japan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4908:1" rel="noopener">Ariake Japan (2815 JP)</a> in the Ex-Growth quadrant.<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/173/896/original/2020-11-25_12-25-57.png?1606274769" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="173896"></figure><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/173/903/original/2020-11-25_12-56-49.png?1606276623" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="173903"></figure></section><a href="https://www.dropbox.com/s/7b61jl02dh0pzno/2020-11-25_12-43-55.png?dl=0" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CONTRARIAN BUYS</a> - In the DETAIL below, we shall review the current 'crop' of Contrarian Buys for potential opportunities. Subsequent Insights in this mini-series will look into the other three quadrants before concluding with one '2021 High Conviction' recommendation. </section>

Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsFOUR QUADRANTS - By combining our two scoring methodologies - the Relative Price Score (RPS) and the Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS), we can assign companies into four quadrants:-

CONTRARIAN BUYS - Companies with low Results &amp; Revision and Relative Price Scores

CONTRARIAN SELLS - Companies with high Results &amp; Revision and Relative Price Scores

TURNAROUNDS - Companies with high Results &amp; Revision Scores &amp; low Relative Price Scores

EX-GROWTH - Companies with low Results &amp; Revision Scores &amp; high Relative Price Scores
In the two Contrarian quadrants, companies can remain outliers for extended periods, such as JFE (5411 JP)  in Buys, Lasertec (6920 JP) in Sells. The other quadrants see much more 'turnover' and van can offer profitable trading opportunities such as Lixil(5938 JP) in Turnarounds, and Ariake Japan (2815 JP) in the Ex-Growth quadrant.CONTRARIAN BUYS - In the DETAIL below, we shall review the current 'crop' of Contrarian Buys for potential opportunities. Subsequent Insights in this mini-series will look into the other three quadrants before concluding with one '2021 High Conviction' recommendation. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Four Quadrants - Contrarian Buys

<ul>
<li>GS has bumped terms for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/raksul-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27043:1" rel="noopener">Raksul (4384 JP)</a>. It's not a great bump, but it is "final" it appears. Aspex got rolled in.  Anyone large will get rolled in too. </li>
<li>On <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bluescope-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:207:1" rel="noopener">BlueScope Steel (BSL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sgh-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:803:1" rel="noopener">SGH (SGH AU)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/steel-dynamics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11061:1" rel="noopener">Steel Dynamics (STLD US)</a> need to bolt on scrip; and/or flip to a conditional Offer, with a 50% acceptance hurdle, to gain control. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-sdi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:503:1" rel="noopener">Samsung SDI (006400 KS)</a>announced plans to sell its 15.2% stake in Samsung Display (unlisted). <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener"></a> may be the buyer. </li>
</ul>


GS has bumped terms for Raksul (4384 JP). It's not a great bump, but it is "final" it appears. Aspex got rolled in.  Anyone large will get rolled in too. 
On BlueScope Steel (BSL AU), SGH (SGH AU)/Steel Dynamics (STLD US) need to bolt on scrip; and/or flip to a conditional Offer, with a 50% acceptance hurdle, to gain control. 

Samsung SDI (006400 KS)announced plans to sell its 15.2% stake in Samsung Display (unlisted). Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) may be the buyer. 


Last Week In Event SPACE: Raksul, BlueScope, Samsung SDI, Qube

Japan

FUJI MEDIA HOLDINGS, INC., a member of the Fuji-Sankei Group, produces and broadcasts a variety of television programs and sells commercial spots through a network system.  The Company is advancing into digital satellite broadcasting.

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Fuji Media Holdings (4676 JP)

Supports Starting to Break; Upgrading Non-U.S. Small-Caps to Overweight; Transports/Comm/HC Buys

Support levels on global indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) beginning to break as $DXY and 10-year Treasury yield $TNX break above $105.70 and...

Vermilion Research

Japan Activist Briefs | Kao, Kadokawa, Fuji Media

Kao calls EGM to address supply chain concerns, Kadokawa attracts interest for IP assets, Fuji Media completes buyback under activist pressure.

Mark Chadwick

Asia-Pac M&A, Feb 2026 Wrap: MCJ, Magnetic Res, Inforich, Pepper Money, Takara Bio, Qoria

For the month of Feb 2026, 12 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of just ~US$7bn. The average premium for the new...

David Blennerhassett

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Four Quadrants - Contrarian Buys

FOUR QUADRANTS - By combining our two scoring methodologies - the Relative Price Score (RPS) and the Results & Revision Score (RRS), we can assign...

Campbell Gunn

Last Week In Event SPACE: Raksul, BlueScope, Samsung SDI, Qube

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Supports Starting to Break; Upgrading Non-U.S. Small-Caps to Overweight; Transports/Comm/HC Buys

Support levels on global indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) beginning to break as $DXY and 10-year Treasury yield $TNX break above $105.70 and...

Vermilion Research

Japan Activist Briefs | Kao, Kadokawa, Fuji Media

​Kao calls EGM to address supply chain concerns, Kadokawa attracts interest for IP assets, Fuji Media completes buyback under activist pressure.

Mark Chadwick

Asia-Pac M&A, Feb 2026 Wrap: MCJ, Magnetic Res, Inforich, Pepper Money, Takara Bio, Qoria

For the month of Feb 2026, 12 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of just ~US$7bn. The average premium for the new...

David Blennerhassett

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Four Quadrants - Contrarian Buys

FOUR QUADRANTS - By combining our two scoring methodologies - the Relative Price Score (RPS) and the Results & Revision Score (RRS), we can assign...

Campbell Gunn

Last Week In Event SPACE: Raksul, BlueScope, Samsung SDI, Qube

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Kao calls EGM to address supply chain concerns, Kadokawa attracts interest for IP assets, Fuji Media completes buyback under activist pressure.