'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/173/867/original/2020-11-25_11-14-58.png?1606270511" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="173867"></figure></section><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>FOUR QUADRANTS</strong> - By combining our two scoring methodologies - the Relative Price Score (RPS) and the Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS), we can assign companies into four quadrants:-</p><ul>
<li>
<strong>CONTRARIAN BUYS</strong> - Companies with<strong> low</strong> Results &amp; Revision and Relative Price Scores</li>
<li>
<strong>CONTRARIAN SELLS</strong> - Companies with <strong>high</strong> Results &amp; Revision and Relative Price Scores</li>
<li>
<strong>TURNAROUNDS</strong> - Companies with<strong> high</strong> Results &amp; Revision Scores &amp; <strong>low</strong> Relative Price Scores</li>
<li>
<strong>EX-GROWTH</strong> - Companies with <strong>low</strong> Results &amp; Revision Scores &amp; <strong>high</strong> Relative Price Scores</li>
</ul><p>In the two <strong>Contrarian</strong> quadrants, companies can remain outliers for extended periods, such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jfe-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:210:1" rel="noopener">JFE (5411 JP)</a>  in Buys, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lasertec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4126:1" rel="noopener">Lasertec (6920 JP)</a> in Sells. The other quadrants see much more 'turnover' and van can offer profitable trading opportunities such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lixil-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:454:1" rel="noopener">Lixil(5938 JP)</a> in <strong>Turnarounds,</strong> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ariake-japan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4908:1" rel="noopener">Ariake Japan (2815 JP)</a> in the <strong>Ex-Growth</strong> quadrant.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/173/896/original/2020-11-25_12-25-57.png?1606274769" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="173896"></figure><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/173/903/original/2020-11-25_12-56-49.png?1606276623" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="173903"></figure></section><p><strong><a href="https://www.dropbox.com/s/7b61jl02dh0pzno/2020-11-25_12-43-55.png?dl=0" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CONTRARIAN BUYS</a> -</strong> In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> below, we shall review the current 'crop' of Contrarian Buys for potential opportunities. Subsequent Insights in this mini-series will look into the other three quadrants before concluding with one '<em><strong>2021 High Conviction</strong></em>' recommendation. </p></section>

Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsFOUR QUADRANTS - By combining our two scoring methodologies - the Relative Price Score (RPS) and the Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS), we can assign companies into four quadrants:-

CONTRARIAN BUYS - Companies with low Results &amp; Revision and Relative Price Scores

CONTRARIAN SELLS - Companies with high Results &amp; Revision and Relative Price Scores

TURNAROUNDS - Companies with high Results &amp; Revision Scores &amp; low Relative Price Scores

EX-GROWTH - Companies with low Results &amp; Revision Scores &amp; high Relative Price Scores
In the two Contrarian quadrants, companies can remain outliers for extended periods, such as JFE (5411 JP)  in Buys, Lasertec (6920 JP) in Sells. The other quadrants see much more 'turnover' and van can offer profitable trading opportunities such as Lixil(5938 JP) in Turnarounds, and Ariake Japan (2815 JP) in the Ex-Growth quadrant.CONTRARIAN BUYS - In the DETAIL below, we shall review the current 'crop' of Contrarian Buys for potential opportunities. Subsequent Insights in this mini-series will look into the other three quadrants before concluding with one '2021 High Conviction' recommendation. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Four Quadrants - Contrarian Buys

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/146/891/original/2020-07-20_11-11-13.png?1595211104" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="146891"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>THE 'HUNDRED DAYS WAR'</strong> - It is almost one hundred days since the equity markets began to discount the onset of COVID-19. Since the TOPIX closing low of 1,236.34 on 16th March, the index has recovered by 27%. However, it has only been in the last ten trading days that the number of new two-year share price highs and lows has consistently been in double-digits.  This month has seen 136 new two-year lows and 214 new two-year highs. Whatever the impact of COVID-19 on earnings, the market is very clearly signalling its preferences for COVID 'Heroes &amp; Villains'. In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> section below, we shall look at the leading large caps in both categories and suggest opportunities in each.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/146/894/original/2020-07-20_11-42-42.png?1595213322" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="146894"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>RELATIVE PRICE</strong> - We shall also conduct the same analysis using our Relative Price Score methodology. The July numbers are 469 Relative Price Score new lows and 229 new highs suggesting a high degree of market polarity as confirmed by the percentages of market value in Overbought and Oversold Stocks - which are both at twenty-year highs.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/146/895/original/2020-07-20_11-58-18.png?1595214235" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="146895"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>RESULTS DRIVER</strong> - We expect the number of absolute 'heroes and villains' to increase in the next two months as the COVID fallout on earnings is revealed, and will provide further updates as we progress. </p>

Source • Japan AnalyticsTHE 'HUNDRED DAYS WAR' - It is almost one hundred days since the equity markets began to discount the onset of COVID-19. Since the TOPIX closing low of 1,236.34 on 16th March, the index has recovered by 27%. However, it has only been in the last ten trading days that the number of new two-year share price highs and lows has consistently been in double-digits.  This month has seen 136 new two-year lows and 214 new two-year highs. Whatever the impact of COVID-19 on earnings, the market is very clearly signalling its preferences for COVID 'Heroes &amp; Villains'. In the DETAIL section below, we shall look at the leading large caps in both categories and suggest opportunities in each.Source • Japan AnalyticsRELATIVE PRICE - We shall also conduct the same analysis using our Relative Price Score methodology. The July numbers are 469 Relative Price Score new lows and 229 new highs suggesting a high degree of market polarity as confirmed by the percentages of market value in Overbought and Oversold Stocks - which are both at twenty-year highs.Source • Japan AnalyticsRESULTS DRIVER - We expect the number of absolute 'heroes and villains' to increase in the next two months as the COVID fallout on earnings is revealed, and will provide further updates as we progress. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • The Hundred Days War - COVID Heroes & Villains

<div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/133/397/original/2020-05-14_07-20-07.png?1589408433" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="133397"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
<p>In the<strong> DETAIL </strong>below, we shall review the results, revisions and initial forecast announcements made by larger-cap companies yesterday:-</p>
</div><div><ul>
<li>The balance between positive/neutral/negative of the 318 results announcements was 144:20:154. The was no change in the average Results Score.</li>
<li>For the 156 revisions/initial forecasts, the split was 55:15:86, and the average Revision Score was -4.6. Of the 228 companies declaring full-year results, only 50% made forecasts for the current year.</li>
</ul></div>


Source • Japan Analytics
In the DETAIL below, we shall review the results, revisions and initial forecast announcements made by larger-cap companies yesterday:-

The balance between positive/neutral/negative of the 318 results announcements was 144:20:154. The was no change in the average Results Score.
For the 156 revisions/initial forecasts, the split was 55:15:86, and the average Revision Score was -4.6. Of the 228 companies declaring full-year results, only 50% made forecasts for the current year.


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 13th May - Matsumotokiyoshi, Fuji Media, Seino

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<p>Our outlook for ex-U.S. markets (MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. index, local currency) remains neutral - bordering on cautious. Our concern stems from the recent pattern of lower highs and continued underperformance relative to MSCI ACWI - remain underweight.  Two bright spots: we are seeing bullish inflections in Japan (TOPIX and Nikkei 225), and India's SENSEX.  We unpack these, and also highlight actionable set ups in our global Communications, and Transportation Sectors.</p>

Our outlook for ex-U.S. markets (MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. index, local currency) remains neutral - bordering on cautious. Our concern stems from the recent pattern of lower highs and continued underperformance relative to MSCI ACWI - remain underweight.  Two bright spots: we are seeing bullish inflections in Japan (TOPIX and Nikkei 225), and India's SENSEX.  We unpack these, and also highlight actionable set ups in our global Communications, and Transportation Sectors.

Global Equity Strategy: Opportunities in Japan and India

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sankei-real-estate-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35239:1" rel="noopener">Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP)</a> announced results to February. They were OK other than the non-cash writedown to the Fukuoka Green Building signalled on 14 April. </li>
<li>Guidance to August 2026 was lifted because of a lack of repair expenses to that building expected in the period. </li>
<li>Murakami bought more (23.8% as of 22 April, more now?). The Bidders said price and extension time (18 May) are final. This only gets done if they let Murakami join.</li>
</ul>



Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP) announced results to February. They were OK other than the non-cash writedown to the Fukuoka Green Building signalled on 14 April. 
Guidance to August 2026 was lifted because of a lack of repair expenses to that building expected in the period. 
Murakami bought more (23.8% as of 22 April, more now?). The Bidders said price and extension time (18 May) are final. This only gets done if they let Murakami join.


[Japan M&A/Activism] Sankei REIT (2972 JP) - Fukuoka Story Changes Again and Murakami Buys More

Japan

FUJI MEDIA HOLDINGS, INC., a member of the Fuji-Sankei Group, produces and broadcasts a variety of television programs and sells commercial spots through a network system.  The Company is advancing into digital satellite broadcasting.

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Fuji Media Holdings (4676 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Four Quadrants - Contrarian Buys

FOUR QUADRANTS - By combining our two scoring methodologies - the Relative Price Score (RPS) and the Results & Revision Score (RRS), we can assign...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • The Hundred Days War - COVID Heroes & Villains

THE 'HUNDRED DAYS WAR' - It is almost one hundred days since the equity markets began to discount the onset of COVID-19. Since the TOPIX closing...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 13th May - Matsumotokiyoshi, Fuji Media, Seino

In the DETAIL below, we shall review the results, revisions and initial forecast announcements made by larger-cap companies yesterday:- The...

Campbell Gunn

Global Equity Strategy: Opportunities in Japan and India

Our outlook for ex-U.S. markets (MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. index, local currency) remains neutral - bordering on cautious. Our concern stems from the...

Vermilion Research

[Japan M&A/Activism] Sankei REIT (2972 JP) - Fukuoka Story Changes Again and Murakami Buys More

Sankei REIT upped guidance and its dividend forecast to Aug26 on lower Fukuoka Green Building expenses and Murakami Group lifted their stake to...

Travis Lundy

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