Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I tally 33 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.</li>
<li>Four new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week: <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/magnetic-resources-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17051:1" rel="noopener">Magnetic Resources Nl (MAU AU)</a></strong>, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takara-bio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10766:1" rel="noopener">Takara Bio Inc (4974 JP)</a></strong>, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ajis-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3539:1" rel="noopener">AJIS Co Ltd (4659 JP)</a></strong>, and <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/inforich-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46391:1" rel="noopener">Inforich (9338 JP)</a></strong>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news also took place on: <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sankei-real-estate-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35239:1" rel="noopener">Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP)</a></strong>, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maruwn-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18411:1" rel="noopener">Maruwn Corp (9067 JP)</a></strong>, and <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-logisnext-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11662:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP)</a></strong>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 33 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.
Four new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week: Magnetic Resources Nl (MAU AU), Takara Bio Inc (4974 JP), AJIS Co Ltd (4659 JP), and Inforich (9338 JP).
Key updates/news also took place on: Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP), Maruwn Corp (9067 JP), and Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP).


Asia-Pac M&A Weekly Wrap: Inforich, Magnetic Res, Takara Bio, AJIS, Sankei Real Estate, Maruwn

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>On 6-Jan-2026, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tosei-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11224:1" rel="noopener">Tosei Corp (8923 JP)</a> and GIC announced a Tender Offer of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sankei-real-estate-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35239:1" rel="noopener">Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP)</a>, as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-media-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3191:1" rel="noopener">Fuji Media Holdings (4676 JP)</a> was disposing of non-operating assets.</li>
<li>I recommended buying for the possible squeeze as the minimum might be difficult. Murakami started buying and now has 15.9% at last look. I recommended selling. Now it's VERY difficult.</li>
<li>The Bidders and Murakami have been strangely quiet. The unit price has fallen back close to terms. The tender ends tomorrow. What To Do?</li>
</ul>


On 6-Jan-2026, Tosei Corp (8923 JP) and GIC announced a Tender Offer of Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP), as Fuji Media Holdings (4676 JP) was disposing of non-operating assets.
I recommended buying for the possible squeeze as the minimum might be difficult. Murakami started buying and now has 15.9% at last look. I recommended selling. Now it's VERY difficult.
The Bidders and Murakami have been strangely quiet. The unit price has fallen back close to terms. The tender ends tomorrow. What To Do?


[Japan M&A/Activism] Murakami Bought, Squeezed, Now Tender Closing

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/146/891/original/2020-07-20_11-11-13.png?1595211104" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="146891"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>THE 'HUNDRED DAYS WAR'</strong> - It is almost one hundred days since the equity markets began to discount the onset of COVID-19. Since the TOPIX closing low of 1,236.34 on 16th March, the index has recovered by 27%. However, it has only been in the last ten trading days that the number of new two-year share price highs and lows has consistently been in double-digits.  This month has seen 136 new two-year lows and 214 new two-year highs. Whatever the impact of COVID-19 on earnings, the market is very clearly signalling its preferences for COVID 'Heroes &amp; Villains'. In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> section below, we shall look at the leading large caps in both categories and suggest opportunities in each.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/146/894/original/2020-07-20_11-42-42.png?1595213322" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="146894"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>RELATIVE PRICE</strong> - We shall also conduct the same analysis using our Relative Price Score methodology. The July numbers are 469 Relative Price Score new lows and 229 new highs suggesting a high degree of market polarity as confirmed by the percentages of market value in Overbought and Oversold Stocks - which are both at twenty-year highs.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/146/895/original/2020-07-20_11-58-18.png?1595214235" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="146895"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>RESULTS DRIVER</strong> - We expect the number of absolute 'heroes and villains' to increase in the next two months as the COVID fallout on earnings is revealed, and will provide further updates as we progress. </p>

Source • Japan AnalyticsTHE 'HUNDRED DAYS WAR' - It is almost one hundred days since the equity markets began to discount the onset of COVID-19. Since the TOPIX closing low of 1,236.34 on 16th March, the index has recovered by 27%. However, it has only been in the last ten trading days that the number of new two-year share price highs and lows has consistently been in double-digits.  This month has seen 136 new two-year lows and 214 new two-year highs. Whatever the impact of COVID-19 on earnings, the market is very clearly signalling its preferences for COVID 'Heroes &amp; Villains'. In the DETAIL section below, we shall look at the leading large caps in both categories and suggest opportunities in each.Source • Japan AnalyticsRELATIVE PRICE - We shall also conduct the same analysis using our Relative Price Score methodology. The July numbers are 469 Relative Price Score new lows and 229 new highs suggesting a high degree of market polarity as confirmed by the percentages of market value in Overbought and Oversold Stocks - which are both at twenty-year highs.Source • Japan AnalyticsRESULTS DRIVER - We expect the number of absolute 'heroes and villains' to increase in the next two months as the COVID fallout on earnings is revealed, and will provide further updates as we progress. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • The Hundred Days War - COVID Heroes & Villains

<div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/133/397/original/2020-05-14_07-20-07.png?1589408433" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="133397"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
<p>In the<strong> DETAIL </strong>below, we shall review the results, revisions and initial forecast announcements made by larger-cap companies yesterday:-</p>
</div><div><ul>
<li>The balance between positive/neutral/negative of the 318 results announcements was 144:20:154. The was no change in the average Results Score.</li>
<li>For the 156 revisions/initial forecasts, the split was 55:15:86, and the average Revision Score was -4.6. Of the 228 companies declaring full-year results, only 50% made forecasts for the current year.</li>
</ul></div>


Source • Japan Analytics
In the DETAIL below, we shall review the results, revisions and initial forecast announcements made by larger-cap companies yesterday:-

The balance between positive/neutral/negative of the 318 results announcements was 144:20:154. The was no change in the average Results Score.
For the 156 revisions/initial forecasts, the split was 55:15:86, and the average Revision Score was -4.6. Of the 228 companies declaring full-year results, only 50% made forecasts for the current year.


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 13th May - Matsumotokiyoshi, Fuji Media, Seino

<ul>
<li>Investors see value in <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a></strong>. Many are concerned TICO and TM will deliberately engage in bad corporate governance to punish minorities if the Offer doesn't go through.</li>
<li>It's doubtful an international tribunal has the clout to overturn <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-hutchison-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:132:1" rel="noopener">CKH (1 HK)</a></strong>'s Supreme Court decision. The safe takeaway here is that this entire construct won't be concluded anytime soon.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/melco-international-development-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:809:1" rel="noopener"><strong>Melco International Development (200 HK)</strong></a>'s divergence with <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/melco-crown-entertainme-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:810:1" rel="noopener">Melco Resorts &amp; Entertainment (MLCO US)</a></strong> is a curious thing. Is a statutory merger in the wings?</li>
</ul>


Investors see value in Toyota Industries (6201 JP). Many are concerned TICO and TM will deliberately engage in bad corporate governance to punish minorities if the Offer doesn't go through.
It's doubtful an international tribunal has the clout to overturn CKH (1 HK)'s Supreme Court decision. The safe takeaway here is that this entire construct won't be concluded anytime soon.

Melco International Development (200 HK)'s divergence with Melco Resorts &amp; Entertainment (MLCO US) is a curious thing. Is a statutory merger in the wings?


Last Week In Event SPACE: CKH, Toyota Industries, Melco, Rio/Glencore, Guoco

Japan

FUJI MEDIA HOLDINGS, INC., a member of the Fuji-Sankei Group, produces and broadcasts a variety of television programs and sells commercial spots through a network system.  The Company is advancing into digital satellite broadcasting.

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Fuji Media Holdings (4676 JP)

Asia-Pac M&A Weekly Wrap: Inforich, Magnetic Res, Takara Bio, AJIS, Sankei Real Estate, Maruwn

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

[Japan M&A/Activism] Murakami Bought, Squeezed, Now Tender Closing

The Sankei REIT Tender closes tomorrow. We've had no news. Murakami has 15.9% but this was always going to be close. Extension? Bump? Dividend?...

Travis Lundy

🇯🇵 JAPAN • The Hundred Days War - COVID Heroes & Villains

THE 'HUNDRED DAYS WAR' - It is almost one hundred days since the equity markets began to discount the onset of COVID-19. Since the TOPIX closing...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 13th May - Matsumotokiyoshi, Fuji Media, Seino

In the DETAIL below, we shall review the results, revisions and initial forecast announcements made by larger-cap companies yesterday:- The...

Campbell Gunn

Last Week In Event SPACE: CKH, Toyota Industries, Melco, Rio/Glencore, Guoco

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

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