Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Japanese equities fell this week, with the Nikkei losing 2% and Topix down 1.8%.</li>
<li>Japan’s entertainment stocks have been on a tear over the past six months, and there’s little sign of momentum fading. </li>
<li>Japan’s economy is heating up, and markets are taking notice. The 10-year bond yield has climbed to 1.29%, the highest in 14 years</li>
</ul>


Japanese equities fell this week, with the Nikkei losing 2% and Topix down 1.8%.
Japan’s entertainment stocks have been on a tear over the past six months, and there’s little sign of momentum fading. 
Japan’s economy is heating up, and markets are taking notice. The 10-year bond yield has climbed to 1.29%, the highest in 14 years


Japan Strategy Weekly | The Entertainment Boom

<ul>
<li>The recent market tremors sparked by DeepSeek, a Chinese AI firm, have rattled investors, prompting a wave of selling in AI stocks</li>
<li>The long-term AI narrative remains compelling and the current dip could offer compelling opportunities - we highlight the sell-off in Japanese names</li>
<li>The Bank of Japan’s long-standing commitment to ultra-loose monetary policy is looking increasingly untenable</li>
</ul>


The recent market tremors sparked by DeepSeek, a Chinese AI firm, have rattled investors, prompting a wave of selling in AI stocks
The long-term AI narrative remains compelling and the current dip could offer compelling opportunities - we highlight the sell-off in Japanese names
The Bank of Japan’s long-standing commitment to ultra-loose monetary policy is looking increasingly untenable


Japan Strategy Weekly | A Buying Opportunity in the AI Rubble?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sankei-real-estate-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35239:1" rel="noopener">Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP)</a> announced results to February. They were OK other than the non-cash writedown to the Fukuoka Green Building signalled on 14 April. </li>
<li>Guidance to August 2026 was lifted because of a lack of repair expenses to that building expected in the period. </li>
<li>Murakami bought more (23.8% as of 22 April, more now?). The Bidders said price and extension time (18 May) are final. This only gets done if they let Murakami join.</li>
</ul>



Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP) announced results to February. They were OK other than the non-cash writedown to the Fukuoka Green Building signalled on 14 April. 
Guidance to August 2026 was lifted because of a lack of repair expenses to that building expected in the period. 
Murakami bought more (23.8% as of 22 April, more now?). The Bidders said price and extension time (18 May) are final. This only gets done if they let Murakami join.


[Japan M&A/Activism] Sankei REIT (2972 JP) - Fukuoka Story Changes Again and Murakami Buys More

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tosei-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11224:1" rel="noopener">Tosei Corp (8923 JP)</a>/GIC is attempting to use the Bain/MCJ playbook by indicating that the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sankei-real-estate-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35239:1" rel="noopener">Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP)</a> price and closing date (18 May) are final.</li>
<li>However, Tosei/GIC is unlikely to repeat Bain’s success, particularly given that Murakami entities' <a href="https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y0OC.pdf?sv=2020-08-04&amp;st=2026-04-28T09%3A11%3A01Z&amp;se=2031-04-28T15%3A00%3A00Z&amp;sr=b&amp;sp=rl&amp;sig=dRr7qkyot7Db97XXxgZ%2FRKDxL0E61ARlUt28huvjxkY%3D" target="_blank" rel="noopener">filing today</a> shows that its ownership increased to 22.75%. </li>
<li>It is likely the tender will fail. Murakami is likely looking to initiate an auction for all or part of Sankei RE post-deal break, replicating the FMH real estate auction.</li>
</ul>



Tosei Corp (8923 JP)/GIC is attempting to use the Bain/MCJ playbook by indicating that the Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP) price and closing date (18 May) are final.
However, Tosei/GIC is unlikely to repeat Bain’s success, particularly given that Murakami entities' filing today shows that its ownership increased to 22.75%. 
It is likely the tender will fail. Murakami is likely looking to initiate an auction for all or part of Sankei RE post-deal break, replicating the FMH real estate auction.


Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP): Murakami Adds as Tosei/GIC Goes for Broke

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We see global equities (MSCI ACWI) going through a pause/pullback amid short-term breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and global sovereign 10-year yields.</li>
<li>A rising DXY and climbing yields is a near-term headwind, and we could continue to see more choppy price action in the weeks ahead.</li>
<li>With that said, as long as the DXY remains below $106, the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35%, and ACWI-US is <em>above</em> $98, we would view pullbacks as buying opportunities.</li>
</ul>


We see global equities (MSCI ACWI) going through a pause/pullback amid short-term breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and global sovereign 10-year yields.
A rising DXY and climbing yields is a near-term headwind, and we could continue to see more choppy price action in the weeks ahead.
With that said, as long as the DXY remains below $106, the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35%, and ACWI-US is above $98, we would view pullbacks as buying opportunities.


Pause/Pullback Underway; Downgrading Europe and Mexico; Buys in Services, Tech, Comm, Healthcare

Japan

FUJI MEDIA HOLDINGS, INC., a member of the Fuji-Sankei Group, produces and broadcasts a variety of television programs and sells commercial spots through a network system.  The Company is advancing into digital satellite broadcasting.

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Fuji Media Holdings (4676 JP)

Japan Strategy Weekly | The Entertainment Boom

Japanese equities fell this week, but Japan's entertainment stocks continue to surge amid a heating economy and rising bond yields.

Mark Chadwick

Japan Strategy Weekly | A Buying Opportunity in the AI Rubble?

Market tremors caused by DeepSeek have led to a sell-off in AI stocks, but long-term opportunities may arise, especially in Japanese names; Bank...

Mark Chadwick

[Japan M&A/Activism] Sankei REIT (2972 JP) - Fukuoka Story Changes Again and Murakami Buys More

Sankei REIT upped guidance and its dividend forecast to Aug26 on lower Fukuoka Green Building expenses and Murakami Group lifted their stake to...

Travis Lundy

Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP): Murakami Adds as Tosei/GIC Goes for Broke

Murakami entities have increased their ownership ratio to 23.81%. The average cost per share for the latest purchases (22 April) was JPY124,192,...

Arun George

Pause/Pullback Underway; Downgrading Europe and Mexico; Buys in Services, Tech, Comm, Healthcare

Pause/pullback underway in $ACWI, but as long as the $DXY remains below $106, the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35%, and $ACWI is above...

Vermilion Research

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52-week Range

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Japan Strategy Weekly | The Entertainment Boom

​Japanese equities fell this week, but Japan's entertainment stocks continue to surge amid a heating economy and rising bond yields.

Mark Chadwick

Japan Strategy Weekly | A Buying Opportunity in the AI Rubble?

​Market tremors caused by DeepSeek have led to a sell-off in AI stocks, but long-term opportunities may arise, especially in Japanese names; Bank...

Mark Chadwick

[Japan M&A/Activism] Sankei REIT (2972 JP) - Fukuoka Story Changes Again and Murakami Buys More

Sankei REIT upped guidance and its dividend forecast to Aug26 on lower Fukuoka Green Building expenses and Murakami Group lifted their stake to...

Travis Lundy

Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP): Murakami Adds as Tosei/GIC Goes for Broke

Murakami entities have increased their ownership ratio to 23.81%. The average cost per share for the latest purchases (22 April) was JPY124,192,...

Arun George

Pause/Pullback Underway; Downgrading Europe and Mexico; Buys in Services, Tech, Comm, Healthcare

Pause/pullback underway in $ACWI, but as long as the $DXY remains below $106, the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35%, and $ACWI is above...

Vermilion Research

Japanese equities fell this week, but Japan's entertainment stocks continue to surge amid a heating economy and rising bond yields.

Market tremors caused by DeepSeek have led to a sell-off in AI stocks, but long-term opportunities may arise, especially in Japanese names; Bank...