Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong tech sector leads the market higher with increased momentum and lower volatility.  Short selling has abated with unwind of HKD carry trade.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sands-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:182:1" rel="noopener">Sands China (1928 HK)</a> had a breakout from a Falling Wedge pattern. The share price broke above its short-term averages with increasing momentum.
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-feihe-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24413:1" rel="noopener">China Feihe (6186 HK)</a> broke out from its downtrend with a Reversal from its U-Shaped Bottom.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/techtronic-industries-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4561:1" rel="noopener">Techtronic Industries (669 HK)</a> broke out to a new YTD high.
</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong tech sector leads the market higher with increased momentum and lower volatility.  Short selling has abated with unwind of HKD carry trade.

Sands China (1928 HK) had a breakout from a Falling Wedge pattern. The share price broke above its short-term averages with increasing momentum.


China Feihe (6186 HK) broke out from its downtrend with a Reversal from its U-Shaped Bottom.  Techtronic Industries (669 HK) broke out to a new YTD high.



Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (SEPTEMBER 23)

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>TOP STORIES Tariff / In Depth: Chinese exporters pivot to domestic consumers in trade war hedge</li><li>The recent 90-day truce in the U.S.-China tariff war has prompted a flurry of activity among Chinese exporters, with traders rushing to ship goods overseas before tensions escalate again.</li><li>But at the same time a major shift is underway among exporters — many are now trying to sell those same goods at home, as they scramble to hedge their bets against future global instability.</li></ul>

TOP STORIES Tariff / In Depth: Chinese exporters pivot to domestic consumers in trade war hedgeThe recent 90-day truce in the U.S.-China tariff war has prompted a flurry of activity among Chinese exporters, with traders rushing to ship goods overseas before tensions escalate again.But at the same time a major shift is underway among exporters — many are now trying to sell those same goods at home, as they scramble to hedge their bets against future global instability.

CX Daily: Chinese Exporters Pivot to Domestic Consumers in Trade War Hedge 

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ainsworth-game-technology-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:957:1" rel="noopener">Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU)</a> entered into a scheme implementation deed with Novomatic, its controlling shareholder, at A$1.00 per share, a 35.1% premium to the unaffected price.</li>
<li>The final offer is unattractive. Kanen Wealth Management <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/games-and-wagering/ainsworth-shareholder-slams-takeover-bid-as-shares-climb-31-per-cent-20250428-p5lutb" target="_blank" rel="noopener">opposes</a> the offer. The lack of irrevocables from Spheria and Allan Gray adds to the vote risk.   </li>
<li>Cognizant of the scheme vote risk, Novomatic has the option to switch to an alternative takeover offer, which has a 75% minimum acceptance condition, thereby limiting the downside risk.</li>
</ul>



Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU) entered into a scheme implementation deed with Novomatic, its controlling shareholder, at A$1.00 per share, a 35.1% premium to the unaffected price.
The final offer is unattractive. Kanen Wealth Management opposes the offer. The lack of irrevocables from Spheria and Allan Gray adds to the vote risk.   
Cognizant of the scheme vote risk, Novomatic has the option to switch to an alternative takeover offer, which has a 75% minimum acceptance condition, thereby limiting the downside risk.


Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU): Novomatic’s Polarising Scheme Offer

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Rapid changes in US's tariff policies have driven sharp equity volatility. For instance, since March third week, HSI's forward PE declined from 11.1x to 9.1x and bounced back to 9.5x.</li>
<li>Such severe volatility has opened up interesting investment opportunities in Asia. Screening on strong EPS growth forecasts, high ROE, low PEG, and low debt-equity, we come up with 35 stocks.</li>
<li>Our stocks are from China (15), HK (8), Korea (4), India (4), Taiwan (2). Notably, TSMC, SK Hynix, Wuxi AppTec, Galaxy Entertainment, ZTO Express, M&amp;M Finance, Muthoot Finance, Muangthai Capital.</li>
</ul>


Rapid changes in US's tariff policies have driven sharp equity volatility. For instance, since March third week, HSI's forward PE declined from 11.1x to 9.1x and bounced back to 9.5x.
Such severe volatility has opened up interesting investment opportunities in Asia. Screening on strong EPS growth forecasts, high ROE, low PEG, and low debt-equity, we come up with 35 stocks.
Our stocks are from China (15), HK (8), Korea (4), India (4), Taiwan (2). Notably, TSMC, SK Hynix, Wuxi AppTec, Galaxy Entertainment, ZTO Express, M&amp;M Finance, Muthoot Finance, Muangthai Capital.


Asian Equities: Growth at Reasonable Price After This Dislocation

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Melco International Development / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>At an 8% discount to NAV, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/melco-international-development-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:809:1" rel="noopener">Melco International Development (200 HK)</a> is trading too tight for what is a simple holding company structure.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Melco are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>


At an 8% discount to NAV, Melco International Development (200 HK) is trading too tight for what is a simple holding company structure.
Preceding my comments on Melco are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


Hong Kong

Galaxy Entertainment Group Limited, through its subsidiary, operates casino, hotel and other entertainment facilities in Macau. The company also manufactures sells and distributes construction materials.

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Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK)

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (SEPTEMBER 23)

Hong Kong tech sector is key to lead the market higher. Lower volatility & decreased short selling volume provide tailwinds for HSTECH index. Sands...

David Mudd

CX Daily: Chinese Exporters Pivot to Domestic Consumers in Trade War Hedge

TOP STORIES Tariff / In Depth: Chinese exporters pivot to domestic consumers in trade war hedge The recent 90-day truce in the U. S. -China...

Caixin Global

Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU): Novomatic’s Polarising Scheme Offer

Cognizant of the scheme vote risk, Novomatic has the option to switch to an alternative takeover offer, which has a 75% minimum acceptance...

Arun George

Asian Equities: Growth at Reasonable Price After This Dislocation

Severe volatility has created opportunities in Asia. We identify 35 stocks on strong EPS growth, high ROE, low PEG & low leverage. Notably, TSMC,...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

StubWorld: Melco Is Trading Too Tight

At an 8% discount to NAV, Melco International Development (200 HK) is trading too tight for what is a simple holding company structure.

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (SEPTEMBER 23)

Hong Kong tech sector is key to lead the market higher. Lower volatility & decreased short selling volume provide tailwinds for HSTECH index. Sands...

David Mudd

CX Daily: Chinese Exporters Pivot to Domestic Consumers in Trade War Hedge

TOP STORIES Tariff / In Depth: Chinese exporters pivot to domestic consumers in trade war hedge The recent 90-day truce in the U. S. -China...

Caixin Global

Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU): Novomatic’s Polarising Scheme Offer

Cognizant of the scheme vote risk, Novomatic has the option to switch to an alternative takeover offer, which has a 75% minimum acceptance...

Arun George

Asian Equities: Growth at Reasonable Price After This Dislocation

​Severe volatility has created opportunities in Asia. We identify 35 stocks on strong EPS growth, high ROE, low PEG & low leverage. Notably, TSMC,...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

StubWorld: Melco Is Trading Too Tight

At an 8% discount to NAV, Melco International Development (200 HK) is trading too tight for what is a simple holding company structure.

David Blennerhassett

Severe volatility has created opportunities in Asia. We identify 35 stocks on strong EPS growth, high ROE, low PEG & low leverage. Notably, TSMC,...