Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI)</a> last week closed strongly up. This week it's pulling back, but MRM pattern readings forecast a very short-lived pullback (-1 to -2 weeks).</li>
<li>The suggested strategy is: let the index play out its pullback (warning: it can be volatile) and then enter LONG trades when the probability is good.</li>
<li>
Suggested support price areas are between 18965 (Q2) and 18732 (Q3) - or this Friday at Close (as long as the close is negative).</li>
</ul>


The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI) last week closed strongly up. This week it's pulling back, but MRM pattern readings forecast a very short-lived pullback (-1 to -2 weeks).
The suggested strategy is: let the index play out its pullback (warning: it can be volatile) and then enter LONG trades when the probability is good.

Suggested support price areas are between 18965 (Q2) and 18732 (Q3) - or this Friday at Close (as long as the close is negative).


EQD | Hang Seng Index (HSI) WEEKLY Deep-But-Brief Pullback

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Apr 21st.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Galaxy Ent, Baba, East Buy, Anta Sports, Zijin Mining, Li Auto.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Apr 21st.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in Galaxy Ent, Baba, East Buy, Anta Sports, Zijin Mining, Li Auto.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Galaxy Ent, Baba, East Buy, Anta Sports, Zijin Mining, Li Auto

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Total short interest in Hong Kong is HK$435.1bn, marginally higher from end-December. Short notional has moved in line with the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>Total short notional of the KOSPI and KOSDAQ market has moved up since end-December and is in line with the move higher in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI2 INDEX</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index</a>.</li>
<li>Short notional in Taiwan is lower over the quarter even as the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-stock-exchange-weighted-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26056:1" rel="noopener">TWSE INDEX</a> has moved higher over the period. There has been big short covering on some stocks.</li>
</ul>


Total short interest in Hong Kong is HK$435.1bn, marginally higher from end-December. Short notional has moved in line with the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX). 
Total short notional of the KOSPI and KOSDAQ market has moved up since end-December and is in line with the move higher in the KOSPI2 INDEX and KOSDAQ 150 Index.
Short notional in Taiwan is lower over the quarter even as the TWSE INDEX has moved higher over the period. There has been big short covering on some stocks.


Short Interest Movements (Q1 2023): HK, Korea, Taiwan, Australia

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Melco International Development / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/melco-crown-entertainme-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:810:1" rel="noopener">Melco Resorts &amp; Entertainment (MLCO US)</a> has entered into a share repurchase agreement with a wholly-owned entity of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/melco-international-development-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:809:1" rel="noopener">Melco International Development (200 HK)</a> to repurchase (and cancel) 40.37mn shares for US$169.8mn.</li>
<li>Melco's effective holding will decline to 51.7% from 53.1% currently. This is the second parent/sub repurchase agreement in the last 7 months. </li>
<li>MLCO's previously announced US$500mn share repurchase program remains unaffected by this privately negotiated transaction, with US$412mn still available for future repurchases under the program.</li>
</ul>



Melco Resorts &amp; Entertainment (MLCO US) has entered into a share repurchase agreement with a wholly-owned entity of Melco International Development (200 HK) to repurchase (and cancel) 40.37mn shares for US$169.8mn.
Melco's effective holding will decline to 51.7% from 53.1% currently. This is the second parent/sub repurchase agreement in the last 7 months. 
MLCO's previously announced US$500mn share repurchase program remains unaffected by this privately negotiated transaction, with US$412mn still available for future repurchases under the program.


Melco (200 HK) Takes More Money Off The Table

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Feb 3rd.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Bidu, Manulife, Mengniu Dairy, CDF, Tencent, Baba, Anta Sports, Wuxi Bio.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Feb 3rd.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in Bidu, Manulife, Mengniu Dairy, CDF, Tencent, Baba, Anta Sports, Wuxi Bio.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Short Covers for Tencent, Baba, Anta, Wuxi Biologics

Hong Kong

Galaxy Entertainment Group is a leading hospitality and gaming company that develops and operates integrated resorts, hotels, and casinos in Macau. Its key properties include Galaxy Macau, Broadway Macau, and StarWorld Macau, offering casino games, entertainment, and related hospitality services. The company is headquartered in Hong Kong and was established in 2002.

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Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK)

EQD | Hang Seng Index (HSI) WEEKLY Deep-But-Brief Pullback

The Hang Seng Index is pulling back, but this move should be short-lived according to the Market Reversal Matrix's analysis of the index's support...

Nico Rosti

HK Short Interest Weekly: Galaxy Ent, Baba, East Buy, Anta Sports, Zijin Mining, Li Auto

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Apr 21st and highlight short interest changes in Galaxy Ent, Baba, East...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Short Interest Movements (Q1 2023): HK, Korea, Taiwan, Australia

The Insight looks at movements in short interest across HK, Korea, Taiwan and Australia stocks over Q1 and highlights large increases/decreases in...

Brian Freitas

Melco (200 HK) Takes More Money Off The Table

Since Melco's first repurchase agreement last August, its implied stub has widened from negative HK$1.22 to negative HK$5.42, despite the stub...

David Blennerhassett

HK Short Interest Weekly: Short Covers for Tencent, Baba, Anta, Wuxi Biologics

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Feb 3rd and highlight short interest changes in Bidu, Manulife, Mengniu...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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