Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Greetings from Europe! We had the US CPI report smack dab at our forecast yesterday again and based on public demand here is our UK preview for next Wednesday.</li><li>December inflation is typically fairly hot in core terms in the UK as especially services increase ahead of the holiday season.</li><li>Services increased &gt;0.8% MoM in December 2022, making it “easy” to deliver Services disinflation on a yearly basis in December 2023.</li></ul>

Greetings from Europe! We had the US CPI report smack dab at our forecast yesterday again and based on public demand here is our UK preview for next Wednesday.December inflation is typically fairly hot in core terms in the UK as especially services increase ahead of the holiday season.Services increased &gt;0.8% MoM in December 2022, making it “easy” to deliver Services disinflation on a yearly basis in December 2023.

UK CPI Watch: Another milder than usual report

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

<ul><li>We’ll start today’s 5 things with a look at the central bank outlook for in 2024, then we’ll address the troubles for OPEC.</li><li>We move over to talk about China and afterwards Ukraine for some geopolitics.</li><li>Finally, we’ll end this year’s last 5 things with a crypto outlook.</li></ul>

We’ll start today’s 5 things with a look at the central bank outlook for in 2024, then we’ll address the troubles for OPEC.We move over to talk about China and afterwards Ukraine for some geopolitics.Finally, we’ll end this year’s last 5 things with a crypto outlook.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>From the fresh IFO report details (on prices, orders and employment intentions), the majority of industries expect exports to decline in the months ahead.</li><li>These include automakers, who had recently been assuming that exports would remain constant.</li><li>Manufacturers of machinery and equipment are also expecting fewer orders from abroad, while energy-intensive industries such as the chemical, metal and construction industries are having a particularly tough time at the moment.</li></ul>

From the fresh IFO report details (on prices, orders and employment intentions), the majority of industries expect exports to decline in the months ahead.These include automakers, who had recently been assuming that exports would remain constant.Manufacturers of machinery and equipment are also expecting fewer orders from abroad, while energy-intensive industries such as the chemical, metal and construction industries are having a particularly tough time at the moment.

IFO Nugget: Recession and Target Inflation?

<ul><li>We recently entered a long UK duration trade in anticipation of further disinflation in the UK, which so far has been a winning trade as the recent payroll data and waning price pressures has been in our favor.</li><li>We see CPI headline -0.25% MoM, core -0.15% MoM and Services -0.15% MoM in rounded figures, well below consensus</li><li>The path to 2% looks much more doable now than it did just 1 month ago in the UK given base effects</li></ul>

We recently entered a long UK duration trade in anticipation of further disinflation in the UK, which so far has been a winning trade as the recent payroll data and waning price pressures has been in our favor.We see CPI headline -0.25% MoM, core -0.15% MoM and Services -0.15% MoM in rounded figures, well below consensusThe path to 2% looks much more doable now than it did just 1 month ago in the UK given base effects

<ul><li>Powell invited for a yuuuge risk asset party this week by allowing the market to continue to chase the narrative of material rate cuts in 2024.</li><li>This is (again) reminiscent of the 2006-2007 pause when the Fed allowed financial conditions to ease materially in the run-up to the recession.</li><li>During a hiking cycle, loads and loads of USDs are parked in cash-like setups due to a sudden better relative yield premium in almost risk-free structures.</li></ul>

Powell invited for a yuuuge risk asset party this week by allowing the market to continue to chase the narrative of material rate cuts in 2024.This is (again) reminiscent of the 2006-2007 pause when the Fed allowed financial conditions to ease materially in the run-up to the recession.During a hiking cycle, loads and loads of USDs are parked in cash-like setups due to a sudden better relative yield premium in almost risk-free structures.

Steno Signals #78 – Santa Powell Handing Out Gifts Even to the Naughty!

United Kingdom

The British Pound Sterling is the official currency of The United Kingdom. 

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UK CPI Watch: Another milder than usual report

Greetings from Europe! We had the US CPI report smack dab at our forecast yesterday again and based on public demand here is our UK preview for...

Steno Research

Five Things We Watch For In 2024

The thing to watch is probably employment numbers and once the labor markets start turning bad, expect CBs to cut in a hurry (especially if it is...

Steno Research

IFO Nugget: Recession and Target Inflation?

There is no way around the fact that, no matter how many officials refrain from admitting it, Germany and central economies in Europe are in, at...

Steno Research

UK CPI Watch – A Deflationary Shock?

We recently entered a long UK duration trade in anticipation of further disinflation in the UK, which so far has been a winning trade as the...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #78 – Santa Powell Handing Out Gifts Even to the Naughty!

Powell invited for a yuuuge risk asset party this week by allowing the market to continue to chase the narrative of material rate cuts in 2024.

Steno Research

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