Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Welcome to our short and chart-packed preview of UK inflation out tomorrow morning.</li><li>Extreme base effects are at play in October due to energy price revisions in October 2022</li><li>Housing and household services are about to turn negative year over year </li></ul>

Welcome to our short and chart-packed preview of UK inflation out tomorrow morning.Extreme base effects are at play in October due to energy price revisions in October 2022Housing and household services are about to turn negative year over year 

UK CPI Watch: No Path to 2% Unless Inflation Deflates on a Monthly Basis

Elias Lisberg Glistrup

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>With the turn of October, it’s time for our monthly evaluation of both the present and coming month’s macroeconomic conditions, in which we weigh risks against rewards.</li><li>In order to do so, we employ both our Macro Regime Indicator framework and the interactive Structural Asset Allocation Model.</li><li>In combination, these tools provide an empirically rooted portfolio allocation, given the identified macro conditions and drivers in financial markets.</li></ul>

With the turn of October, it’s time for our monthly evaluation of both the present and coming month’s macroeconomic conditions, in which we weigh risks against rewards.In order to do so, we employ both our Macro Regime Indicator framework and the interactive Structural Asset Allocation Model.In combination, these tools provide an empirically rooted portfolio allocation, given the identified macro conditions and drivers in financial markets.

Macro Regime Indicator: Heavy Long in Cyclical FX

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

<ul><li>Hello everybody and welcome back to our Monday Positioning Watch! We’re here again on this fine Monday, ready to delve into our take on the market’s current temperature based on the latest Positioning and CFTC data.</li><li>Last week, we left off with the possibility of an impending bear market rally.</li><li>If that indeed plays out, it’s the positions with the heaviest shorts that are most at risk and we expect the bleeding is not done.</li></ul>

Hello everybody and welcome back to our Monday Positioning Watch! We’re here again on this fine Monday, ready to delve into our take on the market’s current temperature based on the latest Positioning and CFTC data.Last week, we left off with the possibility of an impending bear market rally.If that indeed plays out, it’s the positions with the heaviest shorts that are most at risk and we expect the bleeding is not done.

Positioning Watch: Prepared for a Short Squeeze?

Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

<ul>
<li>The BoE held its policy rate at 5.25%, in line with the consensus, with most members still sounding hawkish and warning of a possible rise yet not changing their votes.</li>
<li>Inflation persistence was deemed not to have changed despite the minutes noting an assumption that explicitly raised it and a substantial rise in the inflation forecast.</li>
<li>A failure to hike encourages excessive wage settlements, which are rebounding. Second-round effects may not push policy up but should keep it there even longer.</li>
</ul>


The BoE held its policy rate at 5.25%, in line with the consensus, with most members still sounding hawkish and warning of a possible rise yet not changing their votes.
Inflation persistence was deemed not to have changed despite the minutes noting an assumption that explicitly raised it and a substantial rise in the inflation forecast.
A failure to hike encourages excessive wage settlements, which are rebounding. Second-round effects may not push policy up but should keep it there even longer.


<ul><li>At this point in the policy path, our Central Bank Sentiment trackers are showing some meaningful signs of life – not of all it totally anticipated.</li><li>Here we highlight some key observations made over the last month around what Central Bank language is actually telling us from a quantitative point of view.</li><li>We regularly track and update our measure of positivity/negativity of Bank language contained in statements, outlooks and speeches on a scale of -1 to +1.</li></ul>

At this point in the policy path, our Central Bank Sentiment trackers are showing some meaningful signs of life – not of all it totally anticipated.Here we highlight some key observations made over the last month around what Central Bank language is actually telling us from a quantitative point of view.We regularly track and update our measure of positivity/negativity of Bank language contained in statements, outlooks and speeches on a scale of -1 to +1.

Sentiment Nugget: What are Central Banks Actually Telling Us?

United Kingdom

The British Pound Sterling is the official currency of The United Kingdom. 

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GBP (GBPUSD CURNCY)

UK CPI Watch: No Path to 2% Unless Inflation Deflates on a Monthly Basis

Welcome to our short and chart-packed preview of UK inflation out tomorrow morning. The BoE is probably the most mispriced central bank in G10

Steno Research

Macro Regime Indicator: Heavy Long in Cyclical FX

We anticipate consistent QT in both USDs and EURs in the forthcoming month. On a 3-month time frame, and given the assumed conditions, our model...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch: Prepared for a Short Squeeze?

We’re here again on this fine Monday, ready to delve into our take on the market’s current temperature based on the latest Positioning and CFTC data.

Steno Research

BoE: Roasting in Persistent Inflation

The BoE kept its policy rate unchanged at 5.25% while warning of a possible rise later. Higher inflation forecasts and excessive wage settlements...

Phil Rush

Sentiment Nugget: What are Central Banks Actually Telling Us?

Looking back over the past 10 years, ECB sentiment into and over October has been more negative than at any other point.

Steno Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

UK CPI Watch: No Path to 2% Unless Inflation Deflates on a Monthly Basis

Welcome to our short and chart-packed preview of UK inflation out tomorrow morning. The BoE is probably the most mispriced central bank in G10

Steno Research

Macro Regime Indicator: Heavy Long in Cyclical FX

We anticipate consistent QT in both USDs and EURs in the forthcoming month. On a 3-month time frame, and given the assumed conditions, our model...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch: Prepared for a Short Squeeze?

We’re here again on this fine Monday, ready to delve into our take on the market’s current temperature based on the latest Positioning and CFTC data.

Steno Research

BoE: Roasting in Persistent Inflation

​The BoE kept its policy rate unchanged at 5.25% while warning of a possible rise later. Higher inflation forecasts and excessive wage settlements...

Phil Rush

Sentiment Nugget: What are Central Banks Actually Telling Us?

Looking back over the past 10 years, ECB sentiment into and over October has been more negative than at any other point.

Steno Research

The BoE kept its policy rate unchanged at 5.25% while warning of a possible rise later. Higher inflation forecasts and excessive wage settlements...