Brexit: Bimodal Forecasts and the BoE
The UK’s outlook remains bimodal around Brexit, with shifting probabilities driving market pricing. As the BoE assumes a deal, it has now...
515 Views
UK: Jul-19 Surveys Still in Gloomy Ranges
The services PMI exceeded expectations in Jul-19 as it increased by 1.2 to 51.4. That is towards the top of the range achieved since Brexit...
515 Views
BoE: Still Hawkish in Smooth Brexit Scenario
The MPC was unanimous in leaving policy unchanged again in Aug-19, as expected. Further monetary stimulus from markets pricing risk of no-deal...
497 Views
BoE: Navigating Between Bimodal Scenarios
The BoE conditions its forecasts on government policy, which remains to leave the EU smoothly with a deal, whereas markets must price the risk of...
473 Views
Boris Johnson's Almost-Pure Brexit Cabinet a Short-Term Positive; but the Union Is Doomed
Like Churchill was ideally suited to lead Britain into an existential war, Boris is ideally prepared to deliver genuine Brexit. But just as...
585 Views