HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The rumors we’ve heard are that the acquisition price has not yet been agreed upon. Meanwhile, the management of Legend Bio and Genscript may have different views on this takeover.</li>
<li>The deal has a 50-50 chance of success. If the deal breaks, this is however "a good news" for the investors of Genscript, whose key performance contributor is Legend Bio. </li>
<li>The commercialization potential of Carvykti has not yet been fully realized. Regardless of whether there is a takeover offer or not, Legend Bio is still considered a high quality asset.  </li>
</ul>


The rumors we’ve heard are that the acquisition price has not yet been agreed upon. Meanwhile, the management of Legend Bio and Genscript may have different views on this takeover.
The deal has a 50-50 chance of success. If the deal breaks, this is however "a good news" for the investors of Genscript, whose key performance contributor is Legend Bio. 
The commercialization potential of Carvykti has not yet been fully realized. Regardless of whether there is a takeover offer or not, Legend Bio is still considered a high quality asset.  


Legend Biotech (LEGN.US) Offer Update - The Takeover Negotiations Could Reach an Impasse?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>SOUTHBOUND was a net seller the prior week for HK$1.5bn, the first week in 29 where SB was a net seller. It was all ETFs. Stocks were a net buy.</li>
<li>This week, they reverted to net buying. Financials and Utilities were strong net buys. ETFs again a net sell. Total SOUTHBOUND volumes also picked up. </li>
<li>SOEs, SOE Banks, Energy, Utilities, and finally <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)</a> saw net buying after salutary earnings.</li>
</ul>


SOUTHBOUND was a net seller the prior week for HK$1.5bn, the first week in 29 where SB was a net seller. It was all ETFs. Stocks were a net buy.
This week, they reverted to net buying. Financials and Utilities were strong net buys. ETFs again a net sell. Total SOUTHBOUND volumes also picked up. 
SOEs, SOE Banks, Energy, Utilities, and finally Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) saw net buying after salutary earnings.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 30 Aug 2024); Weak Econ Data, But a Rebound in SB Net Buys

<ul>
<li>SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$9.2bn this week (now 26wks in a row of net buying), on smallish two-way volumes.</li>
<li>I've thought national team was buying banks for months. They were gone for a couple of weeks. Feels like they are back. </li>
<li>There were three ETFs in the top five SOUTHBOUND sells this past week, reversing last week. Energy, Utilities, Telecoms bought. </li>
</ul>


SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$9.2bn this week (now 26wks in a row of net buying), on smallish two-way volumes.
I've thought national team was buying banks for months. They were gone for a couple of weeks. Feels like they are back. 
There were three ETFs in the top five SOUTHBOUND sells this past week, reversing last week. Energy, Utilities, Telecoms bought. 


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 2 Aug 2024); ETFs Get Sold; Tencent, SOEs, Utilities Bought

<ul>
<li>This takeover could be at negotiation stage and different parties haven't reached an agreement.When Legend Bio releases official announcement, it means main issues of the deal have been agreed upon.</li>
<li>Genscript will be a big winner if Legend Bio is acquired. Major shareholders would take measures to maximize personal interests.The concern is whether Genscript will offer dividends to small/medium shareholders/investors. </li>
<li>Whether the takeover is successful or not, reasonable valuation of Legend Bio is between US$12.5- US$15 billion. Due to uncertainties, we recommend investors buy Legend Bio directly rather than Genscript.</li>
</ul>


This takeover could be at negotiation stage and different parties haven't reached an agreement.When Legend Bio releases official announcement, it means main issues of the deal have been agreed upon.
Genscript will be a big winner if Legend Bio is acquired. Major shareholders would take measures to maximize personal interests.The concern is whether Genscript will offer dividends to small/medium shareholders/investors. 
Whether the takeover is successful or not, reasonable valuation of Legend Bio is between US$12.5- US$15 billion. Due to uncertainties, we recommend investors buy Legend Bio directly rather than Genscript.


Legend Biotech (LEGN.US) Offer Update - Some New Information About the Takeover Worth the Attention

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>Expect True Wind to walk away rather than raising their price further for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10803:1" rel="noopener">Sun Corp (6736 JP)</a>. They'd need to pay ¥5,500-5,800 to dislodge a large chunk. And they won't.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amorepacific-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12179:1" rel="noopener">Amorepacific Group (002790 KS)</a> plumbs new discount lows as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amorepacific-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20854:1" rel="noopener">Amorepacific Corp (090430 KS) </a> gets a boost from Amazon Prime Day.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canon-marketing-japan-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3866:1" rel="noopener">Canon Marketing Japan (8060 JP)</a> is still significantly under-levered. That means the stock price will generically not be that volatile. That generally means one should buy dips and sell pops.</li>
</ul>


Expect True Wind to walk away rather than raising their price further for Sun Corp (6736 JP). They'd need to pay ¥5,500-5,800 to dislodge a large chunk. And they won't.

Amorepacific Group (002790 KS) plumbs new discount lows as Amorepacific Corp (090430 KS)  gets a boost from Amazon Prime Day.

Canon Marketing Japan (8060 JP) is still significantly under-levered. That means the stock price will generically not be that volatile. That generally means one should buy dips and sell pops.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Sun Corp, Amorepacific, Canon Marketing, Jeisys Medical

Hong Kong

Genscript Biotech Corp is biotech service company. The Company provides life science services and products and pre-clinical drug development services.

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Genscript Biotech (1548 HK)

Legend Biotech (LEGN.US) Offer Update - The Takeover Negotiations Could Reach an Impasse?

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SOUTHBOUND Connect flows picked up to the positive side again after the buy streak was broken the week before. Gross flows picked up. Econ data was...

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HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 2 Aug 2024); ETFs Get Sold; Tencent, SOEs, Utilities Bought

SOUTHBOUND flows for HK Connect were to the net buy side for the 26th week in a row. SOEs in Energy, Telcos, and Utilities were strong. Banks too....

Travis Lundy

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The potential takeover seems reliable.Genscript will be a big winner but it's uncertain whether Genscript will offer dividends to small/medium...

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The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Legend Biotech (LEGN.US) Offer Update - The Takeover Negotiations Could Reach an Impasse?

​Rumors swirl around acquisition price disagreement between Legend Bio and Genscrip. Deal has 50-50 chance of success. Investors still benefit if...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 30 Aug 2024); Weak Econ Data, But a Rebound in SB Net Buys

SOUTHBOUND Connect flows picked up to the positive side again after the buy streak was broken the week before. Gross flows picked up. Econ data was...

Travis Lundy

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 2 Aug 2024); ETFs Get Sold; Tencent, SOEs, Utilities Bought

SOUTHBOUND flows for HK Connect were to the net buy side for the 26th week in a row. SOEs in Energy, Telcos, and Utilities were strong. Banks too....

Travis Lundy

Legend Biotech (LEGN.US) Offer Update - Some New Information About the Takeover Worth the Attention

The potential takeover seems reliable.Genscript will be a big winner but it's uncertain whether Genscript will offer dividends to small/medium...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Last Week in Event SPACE: Sun Corp, Amorepacific, Canon Marketing, Jeisys Medical

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Rumors swirl around acquisition price disagreement between Legend Bio and Genscrip. Deal has 50-50 chance of success. Investors still benefit if...