Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>FX reserves, which had declined over 10% from Mar'22 to Oct'22, rebounded by 8.9% in Nov-Dec'22. Anwar's inclusive policies will likely induce a steady rebound in net capital inflows. </li>
<li>Base effects have facilitated 9.3%YoY real GDP growth in Q1-Q3 2022 led by strong private consumption and net exports; better growth cut the fiscal deficit to 4% of GDP YTD.    </li>
<li>Net foreign portfolio outflows averaged 1.75% of GDP since 2013. As FPI rebounds, and non-bumiputera businesses invest anew, Malaysia's real GDP will grow 6% despite the OECD recession in 2023.</li>
</ul>


FX reserves, which had declined over 10% from Mar'22 to Oct'22, rebounded by 8.9% in Nov-Dec'22. Anwar's inclusive policies will likely induce a steady rebound in net capital inflows. 
Base effects have facilitated 9.3%YoY real GDP growth in Q1-Q3 2022 led by strong private consumption and net exports; better growth cut the fiscal deficit to 4% of GDP YTD.    
Net foreign portfolio outflows averaged 1.75% of GDP since 2013. As FPI rebounds, and non-bumiputera businesses invest anew, Malaysia's real GDP will grow 6% despite the OECD recession in 2023.


Malaysia: Anwar Well-Positioned to Spur Economic Recovery as Capital Flows Back

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 4 stocks listed in Malaysia and Thailand that could be deleted from passive portfolios in August.</li>
<li>There is a fair bit to sell in the stocks with over US$70m flow and between 10.7-44.5x ADV.</li>
<li>The positioning in most stocks does not cover the estimated passive selling and there could be more selling over the next few weeks.</li>
</ul>


There are 4 stocks listed in Malaysia and Thailand that could be deleted from passive portfolios in August.
There is a fair bit to sell in the stocks with over US$70m flow and between 10.7-44.5x ADV.
The positioning in most stocks does not cover the estimated passive selling and there could be more selling over the next few weeks.


Southeast Asia: Potential Global Index Deletions in August

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Stick with restaurant group <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/colowide-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13967:1" rel="noopener">Colowide Co Ltd (7616 JP)</a>, despite the elevated implied stub and NAV discount. And <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genting-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14210:1" rel="noopener">Genting Bhd (GENT MK)</a> craters on rights issue plan.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Colowide and Genting are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>


Stick with restaurant group Colowide Co Ltd (7616 JP), despite the elevated implied stub and NAV discount. And Genting Bhd (GENT MK) craters on rights issue plan.
Preceding my comments on Colowide and Genting are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Stay With Colowide (7616 JP); Bullet Dodged On Genting (GENT MK)

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>Genting Berhad’s FY 2025 numbers were soft, mainly owing to weaker performance by the hospitality assets in Singapore and Las Vegas.</li>
<li>In addition, EBITDA from the New York business (under Genting Malaysia) declined due to the consolidation of the loss-making Empire Resorts.</li>
<li>Going forward, earnings improvement may hinge on a successful ramp-up of the expanded Resorts World New York City, as well as a business recovery at Resorts World Singapore.</li>
</ul>


Genting Berhad’s FY 2025 numbers were soft, mainly owing to weaker performance by the hospitality assets in Singapore and Las Vegas.
In addition, EBITDA from the New York business (under Genting Malaysia) declined due to the consolidation of the loss-making Empire Resorts.
Going forward, earnings improvement may hinge on a successful ramp-up of the expanded Resorts World New York City, as well as a business recovery at Resorts World Singapore.


Genting Berhad - Earnings Flash - FY 2025 Results - Lucror Analytics

<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Genting Berhad</li>
<li>S&amp;P has affirmed the BBB- ratings on Genting Berhad and Genting Malaysia, as well as the BB+ ratings on Genting New York and Resorts World Las Vegas (RWLV).</li>
<li>The outlooks were revised to negative from stable.</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Genting Berhad
S&amp;P has affirmed the BBB- ratings on Genting Berhad and Genting Malaysia, as well as the BB+ ratings on Genting New York and Resorts World Las Vegas (RWLV).
The outlooks were revised to negative from stable.


Malaysia

Genting Berhad is an investment holding company.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides leisure and hospitality, gaming, and entertainment businesses. Genting also operates plantations, develops and manages property, provides tours and travel related services, manufactures and trades paper, explores oil and gas, and provides money lending services.

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Genting Bhd (GENT MK)

Malaysia: Anwar Well-Positioned to Spur Economic Recovery as Capital Flows Back

FX reserves & MYR have rebounded since Anwar became PM. Non-bumi businesses which were investing outside Malaysia since 2000 are set to return,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Southeast Asia: Potential Global Index Deletions in August

There are 4 stocks listed in Malaysia and Thailand that could be deleted from passive portfolios in August. Positioning has increased but appears...

Brian Freitas

StubWorld: Stay With Colowide (7616 JP); Bullet Dodged On Genting (GENT MK)

I might simply be inclined to (still) go outright long in Colowide here. And I would (still) be disinclined to set up the Genting stub here.

David Blennerhassett

Genting Berhad - Earnings Flash - FY 2025 Results - Lucror Analytics

Genting Berhad’s FY 2025 numbers were soft, mainly owing to weaker performance by the hospitality assets in Singapore and Las Vegas. In...

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Genting Berhad. S&P has affirmed the BBB-...

Lucror Analytics

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