Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We examine <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/geo-energy-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8717:1" rel="noopener">Geo Energy Resources (GERL SP)</a>, an Indonesian coal producer listed in Singapore, which has an opportunity to grow production/profitability by 150%/500% in two years. </li>
<li>For FY25, based on our assumptions (50 USD/ton coal price, ten million ton sales), the stock trades at 5x PE,3.7x EV-EBITDA, and a 6% dividend yield (30% payout ratio). </li>
<li>Subject to execution on the new TRA mine, we will see 25 mnt sales in FY27/28, resulting in 1.3x PE and &gt;30% dividend yield (assuming a higher payout of 40%). </li>
</ul>


We examine Geo Energy Resources (GERL SP), an Indonesian coal producer listed in Singapore, which has an opportunity to grow production/profitability by 150%/500% in two years. 
For FY25, based on our assumptions (50 USD/ton coal price, ten million ton sales), the stock trades at 5x PE,3.7x EV-EBITDA, and a 6% dividend yield (30% payout ratio). 
Subject to execution on the new TRA mine, we will see 25 mnt sales in FY27/28, resulting in 1.3x PE and &gt;30% dividend yield (assuming a higher payout of 40%). 


Geo Energy Group (GERL SP): The Case For a >30% Yield in FY27-28

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), KGI Securities Singapore

KGI Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

KGI Securities Singapore

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Infrastructure expansion and cost efficiency. Geo Energy’s US$150mn investment in the MBJ Integrated Infrastructure Project is on track for completion by 1H26.</li><li>The project includes a 92km hauling road and jetty, which will reduce transportation costs by over US$10 per tonne and double production capacity to 25Mt per year.</li><li>Additionally, third-party leasing of the infrastructure is expected to create additional revenue streams, enhancing long-term cash flow and profitability.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Infrastructure expansion and cost efficiency. Geo Energy’s US$150mn investment in the MBJ Integrated Infrastructure Project is on track for completion by 1H26.The project includes a 92km hauling road and jetty, which will reduce transportation costs by over US$10 per tonne and double production capacity to 25Mt per year.Additionally, third-party leasing of the infrastructure is expected to create additional revenue streams, enhancing long-term cash flow and profitability.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Geo Energy Resources Ltd (GERL SP/RE4.SI): Resilient Performance Amid Coal Market Volatility.

<ul><li>Inorganic growth to expand sales volume. As of 31 December 2023, Geo Energy owns 73.11% of PT Golden Eagle Energy Tbk, listed on IDX , and it owns 85% of TRA mine.</li><li>In December 2023 , after the acquisition, TRA had its first export shipment of coal valued at around USD3.2mn based on the ASP of approximately USD58.98 per tonne , which was sold at a premium to the Indonesian Coal Index (ICI) price of USD58.05 per tonne at that time, indicating the favourable demand for TRA coal.</li><li>TRA produces 3,800 kcal/kg gar coal and has 275Mt of 2P coal reserves , leading to a 262% increase in reserves after the acquisition.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Inorganic growth to expand sales volume. As of 31 December 2023, Geo Energy owns 73.11% of PT Golden Eagle Energy Tbk, listed on IDX , and it owns 85% of TRA mine.In December 2023 , after the acquisition, TRA had its first export shipment of coal valued at around USD3.2mn based on the ASP of approximately USD58.98 per tonne , which was sold at a premium to the Indonesian Coal Index (ICI) price of USD58.05 per tonne at that time, indicating the favourable demand for TRA coal.TRA produces 3,800 kcal/kg gar coal and has 275Mt of 2P coal reserves , leading to a 262% increase in reserves after the acquisition.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Company Update: Geo Energy Resources Ltd (GERL SP/RE4.SI)

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For the month of December 2023, 16 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$10bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in December was 44.7%. The average YTD is 39% (117 deals).</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of December 2023, 16 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$10bn.
The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in December was 44.7%. The average YTD is 39% (117 deals).
This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Dec 2023: Vinda, Adbri, Perpetual, CPMC, Sigma Health, Shinko Electric

Haitong International Securities / Event-Driven

Haitong International Securities (TFZ GR)

<ul>
<li>For the month of October 2023, 7 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$4bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in October was 65%. The average YTD is 37% (85 deals).</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of October 2023, 7 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$4bn.
The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in October was 65%. The average YTD is 37% (85 deals).
This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Oct 2023: Haitong, Azure, Hollysys, Aeon, Teraoka, Tietto, Lithium Power

Singapore

Geo Energy Resources is an established coal mining group operating in Indonesia, focusing on low-cost production of premium coal with low-ash and low-sulphur characteristics. The company's core activities include owning and operating coal mines, providing mining contracting services, and trading coal. Headquartered in Singapore, the company was established in 2008.

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Geo Energy Resources (GERL SP)

Geo Energy Group (GERL SP): The Case For a >30% Yield in FY27-28

The company announced a positive profit alert for Q1 FY25 (https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen...

Sameer Taneja

Geo Energy Resources Ltd (GERL SP/RE4.SI): Resilient Performance Amid Coal Market Volatility.

Infrastructure expansion and cost efficiency. Geo Energy’s US$150mn investment in the MBJ Integrated Infrastructure Project is on track for...

KGI Securities

Company Update: Geo Energy Resources Ltd (GERL SP/RE4.SI)

Inorganic growth to expand sales volume. As of 31 December 2023, Geo Energy owns 73.11% of PT Golden Eagle Energy Tbk, listed on IDX , and it...

KGI Securities

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Dec 2023: Vinda, Adbri, Perpetual, CPMC, Sigma Health, Shinko Electric

For the month of December, 16 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$10bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Oct 2023: Haitong, Azure, Hollysys, Aeon, Teraoka, Tietto, Lithium Power

For the month of October, 7 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$4bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

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