Founder at Stock Spin-off Investing, Stock Spin-Off Investing

Richard Howe

Founder at Stock Spin-off Investing

Stock Spin-Off Investing

Generate attractive returns by taking advantage of inefficiencies in the stock spin-off market.

Stock Spin-offs

Event-Driven

<ul><li>The range of ideas is broad. The smallest market cap is a $15MM Canadian micro-cap that is trading below its net cash, and the largest is an $25BN market cap online travel company that is gobbling up its own shares.</li><li>We have ideas profiled from Poland, Canada, India, Austria, Argentina, Italy, and of course, the United States.</li><li>The report will start with my personal favorite idea and then cover the additional ideas in alphabetical order.</li></ul>

The range of ideas is broad. The smallest market cap is a $15MM Canadian micro-cap that is trading below its net cash, and the largest is an $25BN market cap online travel company that is gobbling up its own shares.We have ideas profiled from Poland, Canada, India, Austria, Argentina, Italy, and of course, the United States.The report will start with my personal favorite idea and then cover the additional ideas in alphabetical order.

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

EM Spreads

Credit

<ul>
<li>
Normalization trade, not normalized credit: Argentina’s policy reset supports the rally, but low net reserves and market access constraints still limit a broad Overweight call.</li>
<li>
Belly offers cleaner risk reward: We prefer the ARGENT 2035s and 2041s, while the 2038s and 2046s look less differentiated at current spread levels.</li>
<li>
2027 politics remain the gating risk: Fiscal and inflation progress matter, but full normalization requires confidence that the policy anchor can survive the next election cycle.</li>
</ul>



Normalization trade, not normalized credit: Argentina’s policy reset supports the rally, but low net reserves and market access constraints still limit a broad Overweight call.

Belly offers cleaner risk reward: We prefer the ARGENT 2035s and 2041s, while the 2038s and 2046s look less differentiated at current spread levels.

2027 politics remain the gating risk: Fiscal and inflation progress matter, but full normalization requires confidence that the policy anchor can survive the next election cycle.


Argentina Sovereign Debt: Normalization Trade, Not Normalized Credit

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Discussing the potential for Argentina to become investable again, starting with macroeconomic factors</li><li>Macro overview provided by senior macroeconomist Diego Barrera, highlighting positive outcomes of fiscal restraint and disinflation</li><li>Necessary conditions for gradual removal of capital controls include continued disinflation, IMF agreement and disbursement, leading to potential increase in reserves and real investment opportunities</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Discussing the potential for Argentina to become investable again, starting with macroeconomic factorsMacro overview provided by senior macroeconomist Diego Barrera, highlighting positive outcomes of fiscal restraint and disinflationNecessary conditions for gradual removal of capital controls include continued disinflation, IMF agreement and disbursement, leading to potential increase in reserves and real investment opportunitiesThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

EM Fixed Income: Argentina: Is this time different?

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul>
<li>Summary of our view: Argentine equities are disconnected from underlying risks; ARS remains a depreciated currency with mounting pressure due to the current balance sheet composition.</li>
<li>Milei may possess economic knowledge, but he must transform into a skilled politician to navigate between domestic politicians and foreign powers.</li>
<li>If Biden/Blinken are prudent, they should seize the opportunity to strengthen ties with Argentina by offering financial assistance to facilitate a transition toward economic sustainability.</li>
</ul>


Summary of our view: Argentine equities are disconnected from underlying risks; ARS remains a depreciated currency with mounting pressure due to the current balance sheet composition.
Milei may possess economic knowledge, but he must transform into a skilled politician to navigate between domestic politicians and foreign powers.
If Biden/Blinken are prudent, they should seize the opportunity to strengthen ties with Argentina by offering financial assistance to facilitate a transition toward economic sustainability.


EM by EM #31: It’s Time for Milei to Grapple with the Real World

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Yesterday marked the first round of the Argentine Presidential election, and the results were as follows: Sergio Massa secured 36.5% of the votes, surpassing Javier Milei’s 30.0% and Patricia Bullrich’s 23.9%.</li><li>In the upcoming three weeks, the decision will largely rest with Bullrich’s supporters, who must choose between Massa and Milei.</li><li>Milei has obviously been the media darling lately with his boisterous promises of rooting out close to all state departments and exchange the hyperinflated Peso with the USD.</li></ul>

Yesterday marked the first round of the Argentine Presidential election, and the results were as follows: Sergio Massa secured 36.5% of the votes, surpassing Javier Milei’s 30.0% and Patricia Bullrich’s 23.9%.In the upcoming three weeks, the decision will largely rest with Bullrich’s supporters, who must choose between Massa and Milei.Milei has obviously been the media darling lately with his boisterous promises of rooting out close to all state departments and exchange the hyperinflated Peso with the USD.

Macro Nugget: Why Argentina Won’t Dollarise

United States

Global X MSCI Argentina ETF is an exchange-trade fund incorporated in the USA. The Fund seeks to track the performance of the MSCI Argentina Index. The MSCI All Argentina 25/50 Index is designed to represent the performance of the broad Argentina equity universe, while including a minimum number of constituents. The Fund is market cap weighted and rebalances on a yearly basis.

Global X MSCI Argentina ETF (ARGT US)

Best Ideas of 2025

The range of ideas is broad. The smallest market cap is a $15MM Canadian micro-cap that is trading below its net cash, and the largest is an $25BN...

Richard Howe

Argentina Sovereign Debt: Normalization Trade, Not Normalized Credit

Argentina has stabilized, but not fully normalized; we prefer selective belly exposure as reserves, market access and 2027 politics still cap broad...

Leandro Gubler

EM Fixed Income: Argentina: Is this time different?

The report highlights positive outcomes in Argentina's economy, including fiscal restraint, disinflation, potential IMF support, and political...

At Any Rate

EM by EM #31: It’s Time for Milei to Grapple with the Real World

Summary of our view: Argentine equities are disconnected from underlying risks; ARS remains a depreciated currency with mounting pressure due to...

Steno Research

Macro Nugget: Why Argentina Won’t Dollarise

Yesterday marked the first round of the Argentine Presidential election, and the results were as follows:Sergio Massa secured 36.5% of the votes,...

Steno Research