Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads is an independent credit research service specializing in Emerging Markets, primarily focusing on Latin American issuers.

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

Brazil Sovereign Debt: External Strength, Fiscal Drift

Mexico Sovereign Debt: Investment Grade at a Discount

PEMEX 2Q26: Better Metrics, Support Still Matters

EM Spreads

Credit

<ul>
<li>
Normalization trade, not normalized credit: Argentina’s policy reset supports the rally, but low net reserves and market access constraints still limit a broad Overweight call.</li>
<li>
Belly offers cleaner risk reward: We prefer the ARGENT 2035s and 2041s, while the 2038s and 2046s look less differentiated at current spread levels.</li>
<li>
2027 politics remain the gating risk: Fiscal and inflation progress matter, but full normalization requires confidence that the policy anchor can survive the next election cycle.</li>
</ul>



Normalization trade, not normalized credit: Argentina’s policy reset supports the rally, but low net reserves and market access constraints still limit a broad Overweight call.

Belly offers cleaner risk reward: We prefer the ARGENT 2035s and 2041s, while the 2038s and 2046s look less differentiated at current spread levels.

2027 politics remain the gating risk: Fiscal and inflation progress matter, but full normalization requires confidence that the policy anchor can survive the next election cycle.


Argentina Sovereign Debt: Normalization Trade, Not Normalized Credit

Global X MSCI Argentina ETF

Argentina Sovereign Debt: Normalization Trade, Not Normalized Credit