Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads is an independent credit research service specializing in Emerging Markets, primarily focusing on Latin American issuers.

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

Mexico Sovereign Debt: Investment Grade at a Discount

PEMEX 2Q26: Better Metrics, Support Still Matters

Pemex: Lower 2027 Transfer Reflects Refinancing Progress

Argentina Sovereign Debt: Normalization Trade, Not Normalized Credit

EM Spreads

Credit

<ul>
<li>Brazil is a carry credit, not a compression story. External strength limits downside, but fiscal drift and election-year reform risk cap upside.</li>
<li>We initiate at Neutral. Tight front-end spreads and fair belly valuations argue against Overweight, while reserves, local funding depth and carry argue against Underweight.</li>
<li>We prefer the 2036s, with 2035s close behind. Use 2030s/2031s defensively, avoid 2041s, and keep 2045s/2047s as higher-beta satellites.</li>
</ul>


Brazil is a carry credit, not a compression story. External strength limits downside, but fiscal drift and election-year reform risk cap upside.
We initiate at Neutral. Tight front-end spreads and fair belly valuations argue against Overweight, while reserves, local funding depth and carry argue against Underweight.
We prefer the 2036s, with 2035s close behind. Use 2030s/2031s defensively, avoid 2041s, and keep 2045s/2047s as higher-beta satellites.


Brazil Sovereign Debt: External Strength, Fiscal Drift

Franklin FTSE Brazil ETF

Brazil Sovereign Debt: External Strength, Fiscal Drift