Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>If you ran price risk for anything touching cocoa in 2024, you already know the story in your body, not just your spreadsheet.</li><li>New York cocoa went from around $3,400 a tonne in late 2023 to an all-time high near $12,931 in December 2024 — and then handed back close to 70% of that move through 2025.</li><li>For the desks caught on the wrong side of the timing, it was a year of margin calls, blown budgets, and uncomfortable conversations with the CFO.</li></ul>

If you ran price risk for anything touching cocoa in 2024, you already know the story in your body, not just your spreadsheet.New York cocoa went from around $3,400 a tonne in late 2023 to an all-time high near $12,931 in December 2024 — and then handed back close to 70% of that move through 2025.For the desks caught on the wrong side of the timing, it was a year of margin calls, blown budgets, and uncomfortable conversations with the CFO.

What People Can Learn from 2024 El Nino Hedging Disaster

Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Our June call played out: the US$4,250–4,320 triangle floor broke and gold slid to US$3,993 yesterday, -28% from the January ATH, including June's largest monthly drop since late 2008.</li>
<li>Positioning reflects capitulation: North America recorded its weakest ETF H1 since 2013 while Asia achieved its strongest ever. Meanwhile, COMEX net longs rose 16% m/m as institutions bought retail selling.</li>
<li>Maintain BULISH with TP of US$4,780. Accumulate US$3,700–4,000 in tranches. <strong>Catalysts this week:</strong> Chair Warsh's first Congressional testimony (14 Jul) and June CPI.</li>
</ul>


Our June call played out: the US$4,250–4,320 triangle floor broke and gold slid to US$3,993 yesterday, -28% from the January ATH, including June's largest monthly drop since late 2008.
Positioning reflects capitulation: North America recorded its weakest ETF H1 since 2013 while Asia achieved its strongest ever. Meanwhile, COMEX net longs rose 16% m/m as institutions bought retail selling.
Maintain BULISH with TP of US$4,780. Accumulate US$3,700–4,000 in tranches. Catalysts this week: Chair Warsh's first Congressional testimony (14 Jul) and June CPI.


GOLD: The West Sells, the East and Central Banks Buy — Capitulation at a 28% Discount

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish (as of 4/21/26) on the SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), and we recently recommended buying the pullback in our June 9 U.S. Macro Vision</li>
<li>As discussed June 9, we continue to expect roughly one pullback per month to test the 20-day MA on SPX, QQQ, IWM, and that was all the recent pullback was.</li>
<li>While price dipped below the 20-day MAs, the decisive reclaim of the 20-dayMAs late last week was exactly what we discussed to look for to confirm a brief, buyable pullback.</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish (as of 4/21/26) on the SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), and we recently recommended buying the pullback in our June 9 U.S. Macro Vision
As discussed June 9, we continue to expect roughly one pullback per month to test the 20-day MA on SPX, QQQ, IWM, and that was all the recent pullback was.
While price dipped below the 20-day MAs, the decisive reclaim of the 20-dayMAs late last week was exactly what we discussed to look for to confirm a brief, buyable pullback.


Buy Software Stocks; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buy Gold and Silver

<ul><li>With around $1.5bn of inflows till end of May, the WisdomTree Agriculture ETF (the largest pure-play agricultural commodity ETP in Europe) is enjoying its strongest year since launching in 2006.</li><li>The $1.6bn fund attracted roughly half of those inflows in the past month alone, according to Morningstar data.</li><li>This is highly unusual, given that the inflows are almost as large as the fund’s total assets under management.</li></ul>

With around $1.5bn of inflows till end of May, the WisdomTree Agriculture ETF (the largest pure-play agricultural commodity ETP in Europe) is enjoying its strongest year since launching in 2006.The $1.6bn fund attracted roughly half of those inflows in the past month alone, according to Morningstar data.This is highly unusual, given that the inflows are almost as large as the fund’s total assets under management.

$1,5 bn Agri-ETF-Trade: Big Whale is Positioning for Strong El Nino

<ul>
<li>172K NFP print obliterates 80K consensus — markets reprice Fed's next move from a cut to a hike; 10Y UST surges to 4.55%, Nasdaq loses 4.77% in a single session.</li>
<li>Friday's selloff is violent but not existential: NFCI remains in negative (accommodative) territory, VIX closes at 21.5 — elevated but far from capitulation-level panic.</li>
<li>SpaceX IPO lands 12 June at $135/share (~$1.75T valuation, $75bn raise) — the largest IPO in history. Forced index inclusion will trigger $22-27B in passive buying.</li>
</ul>


172K NFP print obliterates 80K consensus — markets reprice Fed's next move from a cut to a hike; 10Y UST surges to 4.55%, Nasdaq loses 4.77% in a single session.
Friday's selloff is violent but not existential: NFCI remains in negative (accommodative) territory, VIX closes at 21.5 — elevated but far from capitulation-level panic.
SpaceX IPO lands 12 June at $135/share (~$1.75T valuation, $75bn raise) — the largest IPO in history. Forced index inclusion will trigger $22-27B in passive buying.


Blowout NFP Triggers Market Rout: Blip or Regime Change?

United States

Gold is a chemical element with the symbol Au (from Latin: aurum) and the atomic number 79. In its purest form, it is a bright, slightly reddish yellow, dense, soft, malleable and ductile metal. Chemically, gold is a transition metal and a group 11 element. It is one of the least reactive chemical elements, and is solid under standard conditions. The metal therefore occurs often in free elemental (native) form, as nuggets or grains, in rocks, in veins and in alluvial deposits. It occurs in a solid solution series with the native element silver (as electrum) and also naturally alloyed with copper and palladium. Less commonly, it occurs in minerals as gold compounds, often with tellurium (gold tellurides).

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Gold (GOLD COMDTY)

What People Can Learn from 2024 El Nino Hedging Disaster

New York cocoa went from around $3,400 a tonne in late 2023 to an all-time high near $12,931 in December 2024 — and then handed back close to 70%...

The Commodity Report

GOLD: The West Sells, the East and Central Banks Buy — Capitulation at a 28% Discount

Our June cascade call delivered. West sold; central banks and Asia absorbed every ounce. At US$3,993, the bear case is priced and the asymmetry is...

Mo Aziz

Buy Software Stocks; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buy Gold and Silver

Buy Software Stocks $RBRK $FROG; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Buy Gold and Silver $GLD $SLV $GDX $SIL. Normal Pullback is Over

Vermilion Research

$1,5 bn Agri-ETF-Trade: Big Whale is Positioning for Strong El Nino

With around $1.5bn of inflows till end of May, the WisdomTree Agriculture ETF (the largest pure-play agricultural commodity ETP in Europe) is...

The Commodity Report

Blowout NFP Triggers Market Rout: Blip or Regime Change?

Strong NFP report shifts market expectations from Fed cut to hike, causing bond yields to surge and tech stocks to plummet. SpaceX IPO set for...

Mo Aziz

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

What People Can Learn from 2024 El Nino Hedging Disaster

New York cocoa went from around $3,400 a tonne in late 2023 to an all-time high near $12,931 in December 2024 — and then handed back close to 70%...

The Commodity Report

GOLD: The West Sells, the East and Central Banks Buy — Capitulation at a 28% Discount

Our June cascade call delivered. West sold; central banks and Asia absorbed every ounce. At US$3,993, the bear case is priced and the asymmetry is...

Mo Aziz

Buy Software Stocks; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buy Gold and Silver

Buy Software Stocks $RBRK $FROG; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Buy Gold and Silver $GLD $SLV $GDX $SIL. Normal Pullback is Over

Vermilion Research

$1,5 bn Agri-ETF-Trade: Big Whale is Positioning for Strong El Nino

With around $1.5bn of inflows till end of May, the WisdomTree Agriculture ETF (the largest pure-play agricultural commodity ETP in Europe) is...

The Commodity Report

Blowout NFP Triggers Market Rout: Blip or Regime Change?

​Strong NFP report shifts market expectations from Fed cut to hike, causing bond yields to surge and tech stocks to plummet. SpaceX IPO set for...

Mo Aziz

Strong NFP report shifts market expectations from Fed cut to hike, causing bond yields to surge and tech stocks to plummet. SpaceX IPO set for...