Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Gold has been underperforming the broader market (flat YTD) and plunged last week (-5.2% WoW) on blowout US jobs data, investor liquidity needs, and Iran war stalemate.</li>
<li>AI equity rotation is the dominant structural headwind: tech ETFs posted their largest monthly inflow since 2024, displacing gold. Fed hike probability now ~60%; two-cut base case is dead.</li>
<li>Maintain BUY; TP cut to US$4,780/oz (from US$5,400/oz). Central bank buying continues uninterrupted. US $3.4tn CBO deficit, de-dollarisation, and inflation theses narratives are all intact. Accumulate on weakness.  </li>
</ul>


Gold has been underperforming the broader market (flat YTD) and plunged last week (-5.2% WoW) on blowout US jobs data, investor liquidity needs, and Iran war stalemate.
AI equity rotation is the dominant structural headwind: tech ETFs posted their largest monthly inflow since 2024, displacing gold. Fed hike probability now ~60%; two-cut base case is dead.
Maintain BUY; TP cut to US$4,780/oz (from US$5,400/oz). Central bank buying continues uninterrupted. US $3.4tn CBO deficit, de-dollarisation, and inflation theses narratives are all intact. Accumulate on weakness.  


GOLD: Pulling Back to Reload — Three Headwinds, but Direction Still Points Higher

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

<ul><li>In Depth: As AI Agents Take Off, Tencent Sees Its Edge</li><li>U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Sends Oil Lower and Lifts Global Markets</li><li>Yuan Extends Rally Despite Strong Dollar</li><li>China Steps Up Gold Buying as Prices Slide</li><li>China Social Security Fund Vice Chairman Under Graft Probe</li></ul>

In Depth: As AI Agents Take Off, Tencent Sees Its EdgeU.S.-Iran Ceasefire Sends Oil Lower and Lifts Global MarketsYuan Extends Rally Despite Strong DollarChina Steps Up Gold Buying as Prices SlideChina Social Security Fund Vice Chairman Under Graft Probe

CX Daily: As AI Agents Take Off, Tencent Sees Its Edge 

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are officially downgrading our outlook to bearish with the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) violating major support at 6480-6520, NQ violating 24,000, and Russell 2000 (IWM) breaking below crucial $245 support.</li>
<li>This comes after downgrading our outlook to neutral in our 3/3/26 Compass.</li>
<li>We view this latest rally as a selling opportunity at resistance at 6480-6520 and the 200-day MA</li>
</ul>


We are officially downgrading our outlook to bearish with the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) violating major support at 6480-6520, NQ violating 24,000, and Russell 2000 (IWM) breaking below crucial $245 support.
This comes after downgrading our outlook to neutral in our 3/3/26 Compass.
We view this latest rally as a selling opportunity at resistance at 6480-6520 and the 200-day MA


Downgrading Outlook to Bearish; Stay Defensive; $SPX Rally a Selling Opportunity?

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Commodities

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>Headline driven markets are driving intra-day volatility in all asset markets</li>
<li>Tentative signs of a key signal change in last week's price action</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
Headline driven markets are driving intra-day volatility in all asset markets
Tentative signs of a key signal change in last week's price action


Overview #55 – Filtering Out the Noise in the Headlines

Managing Partner, VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

Managing Partner

Valuation & Research Specialists (VRS) is a boutique financial advisor with more than 17 years of experience in Corporate Valuation and Finance, and a diversified client base including some of the largest Companies in Greece.

Since 2002, VRS has completed more than 200 engagements in the areas of business valuation and financial analysis for more than 100 clients in a wide range of industries.

VRS has been honored to work with small and large private and publicly traded companies in Europe and overseas.

Boutique Financial Advisor

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>According to Graph 1, during the period January 21st, 2026 – February 20th, 2026, a volatile trend was reflected in the price of gold futures.</li><li>During that period, the price showed a combination of upward, downward and then again upward movement.</li><li>The MA-10 was recorded to perform higher than MA-20 during most of the examined period, with a slight cross on February 12, 2026.</li></ul>

According to Graph 1, during the period January 21st, 2026 – February 20th, 2026, a volatile trend was reflected in the price of gold futures.During that period, the price showed a combination of upward, downward and then again upward movement.The MA-10 was recorded to perform higher than MA-20 during most of the examined period, with a slight cross on February 12, 2026.

Commodity Analysis: Gold Futures - February 20, 2026

United States

Gold is a chemical element with the symbol Au (from Latin: aurum) and the atomic number 79. In its purest form, it is a bright, slightly reddish yellow, dense, soft, malleable and ductile metal. Chemically, gold is a transition metal and a group 11 element. It is one of the least reactive chemical elements, and is solid under standard conditions. The metal therefore occurs often in free elemental (native) form, as nuggets or grains, in rocks, in veins and in alluvial deposits. It occurs in a solid solution series with the native element silver (as electrum) and also naturally alloyed with copper and palladium. Less commonly, it occurs in minerals as gold compounds, often with tellurium (gold tellurides).

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Gold (GOLD COMDTY)

GOLD: Pulling Back to Reload — Three Headwinds, but Direction Still Points Higher

Gold underperforms market, plunges on US jobs data. AI equity rotation, Fed hike probability at 60%, maintain BUY with TP cut to US$4,780/oz....

Mo Aziz

CX Daily: As AI Agents Take Off, Tencent Sees Its Edge

TOP STORIES In Depth: As AI Agents Take Off, Tencent Sees Its Edge As the rapid rise of OpenClaw, an open-source artificial intelligence (AI)...

Caixin Global

Downgrading Outlook to Bearish; Stay Defensive; $SPX Rally a Selling Opportunity?

Downgrading Outlook to Bearish; Stay Defensive; Latest $SPX Rally Likely to Roll Over Here at 6480-6520 or 200-day MA resistance

Vermilion Research

Overview #55 – Filtering Out the Noise in the Headlines

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at a potential key divergence in last week's price action

Rikki Malik

Commodity Analysis: Gold Futures - February 20, 2026

According to Graph 1, during the period January 21st, 2026 – February 20th, 2026, a volatile trend was reflected in the price of gold futures.

VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

GOLD: Pulling Back to Reload — Three Headwinds, but Direction Still Points Higher

​Gold underperforms market, plunges on US jobs data. AI equity rotation, Fed hike probability at 60%, maintain BUY with TP cut to US$4,780/oz....

Mo Aziz

CX Daily: As AI Agents Take Off, Tencent Sees Its Edge

TOP STORIES In Depth: As AI Agents Take Off, Tencent Sees Its Edge As the rapid rise of OpenClaw, an open-source artificial intelligence (AI)...

Caixin Global

Downgrading Outlook to Bearish; Stay Defensive; $SPX Rally a Selling Opportunity?

Downgrading Outlook to Bearish; Stay Defensive; Latest $SPX Rally Likely to Roll Over Here at 6480-6520 or 200-day MA resistance

Vermilion Research

Overview #55 – Filtering Out the Noise in the Headlines

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at a potential key divergence in last week's price action

Rikki Malik

Commodity Analysis: Gold Futures - February 20, 2026

According to Graph 1, during the period January 21st, 2026 – February 20th, 2026, a volatile trend was reflected in the price of gold futures.

VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

Gold underperforms market, plunges on US jobs data. AI equity rotation, Fed hike probability at 60%, maintain BUY with TP cut to US$4,780/oz....