Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes back above US$13bn a day this past 4-day week. Net buying back below US$500mm/day.</li>
<li>Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, FINANCIALS, ENERGY, TELECOMS stand out, dramatically. Among top sells, it is INFO TECH again. 8 weeks in a row negative.</li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Monitor</a> are both there free for SK readers.</li>
</ul>


Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes back above US$13bn a day this past 4-day week. Net buying back below US$500mm/day.
Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, FINANCIALS, ENERGY, TELECOMS stand out, dramatically. Among top sells, it is INFO TECH again. 8 weeks in a row negative.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 6 June 2025); Volumes Up, Tech Down, ENERGY Bought Big

COSCO SHIPPING Development / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>AH spreads are slightly narrower, but performance is concentrated in fewer names and broad spread volatility is up. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> now 5% through. CATL 10% through will help.</li>
<li>It feels like there were some concentrated shorts on H vs A. BYD performance on CATL and Hang Seng upweight/inclusion exacerbate the issue. CATL H less liquid than people think.</li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Monitor</a> are both there free for SK readers.</li>
</ul>


AH spreads are slightly narrower, but performance is concentrated in fewer names and broad spread volatility is up. BYD (1211 HK) now 5% through. CATL 10% through will help.
It feels like there were some concentrated shorts on H vs A. BYD performance on CATL and Hang Seng upweight/inclusion exacerbate the issue. CATL H less liquid than people think.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 23 May 2025):  AH Premia Contract, H Premia Names Perform Best; Batteries!

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The global auto industry faces significant tariff exposure. Option implied volatility offers a forward-looking assessment of risk.</li>
<li>Chinese car makers started to increase in implied volatility more than the other markets at the beginning of February. They now show the highest risk.</li>
<li>Recent implied volatility trends, asymmetric pricing (skew), and the term structure all seem to indicate that the Indian auto sector is the least exposed to international trade relations.</li>
</ul>


The global auto industry faces significant tariff exposure. Option implied volatility offers a forward-looking assessment of risk.
Chinese car makers started to increase in implied volatility more than the other markets at the beginning of February. They now show the highest risk.
Recent implied volatility trends, asymmetric pricing (skew), and the term structure all seem to indicate that the Indian auto sector is the least exposed to international trade relations.


EQD | Volatile Roads: Unveiling Risk in the Asian Auto Industry Through the Options Market

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China / Equity Derivatives

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (1398 HK)

<ul>
<li>Call volumes dominate tradng across single stocks with the Put/Call ratio hitting its 3rd lowest level since the beginning of November. Volumes continue trend lower in place since early November.</li>
<li>Auto companies seeing big increases in option volumes with Li Auto and Great Wall Motor moving in opposite directions since the middle of the month.  </li>
<li>We add 2 new tables showing the largest volume increases across Puts and Calls – a conveient way to view unusual changes in trading activity.</li>
</ul>


Call volumes dominate tradng across single stocks with the Put/Call ratio hitting its 3rd lowest level since the beginning of November. Volumes continue trend lower in place since early November.
Auto companies seeing big increases in option volumes with Li Auto and Great Wall Motor moving in opposite directions since the middle of the month.  
We add 2 new tables showing the largest volume increases across Puts and Calls – a conveient way to view unusual changes in trading activity.


EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly December 23 – 27

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>EV Adoption in ASEAN is low compared to developed markets, however, development of a robust EV ecosystem remains a primary goal for the respective nations.</li>
<li>Governments in the region continues to introduce new policy measures and offer incentives to promote the sector, while companies continue to attract large investment to develop the EV market.</li>
<li>The four companies we looked at have reported earnings and we have discussed their latest results and our investment thesis.</li>
</ul>


EV Adoption in ASEAN is low compared to developed markets, however, development of a robust EV ecosystem remains a primary goal for the respective nations.
Governments in the region continues to introduce new policy measures and offer incentives to promote the sector, while companies continue to attract large investment to develop the EV market.
The four companies we looked at have reported earnings and we have discussed their latest results and our investment thesis.


ASEAN EV Ecosystem Update: Progressing Towards a Robust EV Ecosystem

China

Great Wall Motor is a Chinese automobile manufacturer specializing in the design, development, production, and sale of a diverse range of vehicles, including SUVs, pickup trucks, sedans, and new energy vehicles under various brands. The company also produces automotive parts and components. It was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Baoding, Hebei, China.

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Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 6 June 2025); Volumes Up, Tech Down, ENERGY Bought Big

SOUTHBOUND bought another HK$14bn+ last week in the four-day week. ENERGY was big again, as was CONSUMER DISC though some of the latter was index...

Travis Lundy

A/H Premium Tracker (To 23 May 2025): AH Premia Contract, H Premia Names Perform Best; Batteries!

AH Premia contract again. Interestingly, the best performing tranche of discount was stocks where Hs trade at a premium to As. BYD squeezed. CATL a...

Travis Lundy

EQD | Volatile Roads: Unveiling Risk in the Asian Auto Industry Through the Options Market

Global auto industry faces tariff risk. The option market assigns the highest risk to Chinese car makers. The Indian auto sector appears least...

Gaudenz Schneider

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly December 23 – 27

Trading volumes in single stocks were dominated by call volumes, with the Put/Call ratio at its 3rd lowest level since early November. We...

John Ley

ASEAN EV Ecosystem Update: Progressing Towards a Robust EV Ecosystem

Development of a robust EV ecosystem remains a primary goal and the governments in the ASEAN region continue to introduce new policy measures and...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 6 June 2025); Volumes Up, Tech Down, ENERGY Bought Big

SOUTHBOUND bought another HK$14bn+ last week in the four-day week. ENERGY was big again, as was CONSUMER DISC though some of the latter was index...

Travis Lundy

A/H Premium Tracker (To 23 May 2025): AH Premia Contract, H Premia Names Perform Best; Batteries!

AH Premia contract again. Interestingly, the best performing tranche of discount was stocks where Hs trade at a premium to As. BYD squeezed. CATL a...

Travis Lundy

EQD | Volatile Roads: Unveiling Risk in the Asian Auto Industry Through the Options Market

​Global auto industry faces tariff risk. The option market assigns the highest risk to Chinese car makers. The Indian auto sector appears least...

Gaudenz Schneider

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly December 23 – 27

​Trading volumes in single stocks were dominated by call volumes, with the Put/Call ratio at its 3rd lowest level since early November. We...

John Ley

ASEAN EV Ecosystem Update: Progressing Towards a Robust EV Ecosystem

​Development of a robust EV ecosystem remains a primary goal and the governments in the ASEAN region continue to introduce new policy measures and...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Global auto industry faces tariff risk. The option market assigns the highest risk to Chinese car makers. The Indian auto sector appears least...

Trading volumes in single stocks were dominated by call volumes, with the Put/Call ratio at its 3rd lowest level since early November. We...

Development of a robust EV ecosystem remains a primary goal and the governments in the ASEAN region continue to introduce new policy measures and...