Equity Research Focusing on the Consumer Sector, Small Cap Consumer Research

Small Cap Consumer Research

Equity Research Focusing on the Consumer Sector

Small Cap Consumer Research, LLC is a leading company-sponsored equity research provider focusing on the consumer sector (apparel, brand licensing and specialty retailing segments).

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We are reiterating our Buy rating and $9 price target for Vince Holding after the company announced the acquisition of the operating assets of October’s Very Own (“OVO”) and a 5% stake in OVO’s intellectual property (“IP”), concurrent with alliance partner Authentic Brands purchasing a controlling 51% of the OVO IP.</li><li> Further, Vince also announced 2QFY26 results will be at the higher end of management guidance.</li><li> We view the OVO acquisition (which will be accretive in FY27) as a great diversification play into higher-end (primarily men’s) Streetwear, which can leverage many of the positive characteristics of the Vince business model.</li></ul>

We are reiterating our Buy rating and $9 price target for Vince Holding after the company announced the acquisition of the operating assets of October’s Very Own (“OVO”) and a 5% stake in OVO’s intellectual property (“IP”), concurrent with alliance partner Authentic Brands purchasing a controlling 51% of the OVO IP. Further, Vince also announced 2QFY26 results will be at the higher end of management guidance. We view the OVO acquisition (which will be accretive in FY27) as a great diversification play into higher-end (primarily men’s) Streetwear, which can leverage many of the positive characteristics of the Vince business model.

VNCE: OVO Acquisition; 2Q At Upper End; Expanding the Model; Reiterate Buy, $9 PT

<ul><li>We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and $20 price target for Lands’ End with the company announcing 2QFY26 (July) results before the open next Thursday.</li><li> 2QFY26 represents the first full quarter of results under the joint venture with WHP Global, and the conference call will also be the first where new Chief Executive Officer Charlie Cole will provide investors with an update.</li><li> We expect these two key events to provide investors with a road map for the near term, including the installation of key enterprise resource planning software in late 2026/27.</li></ul>

We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and $20 price target for Lands’ End with the company announcing 2QFY26 (July) results before the open next Thursday. 2QFY26 represents the first full quarter of results under the joint venture with WHP Global, and the conference call will also be the first where new Chief Executive Officer Charlie Cole will provide investors with an update. We expect these two key events to provide investors with a road map for the near term, including the installation of key enterprise resource planning software in late 2026/27.

LE: 2Q Preview: Proving a New Baseline; Reiterate Buy, $20 PT

<ul><li>We are reiterating our Buy rating, $9 price target and projections for Vince Holding after visiting Vince stores in Connecticut, Long Island and New Jersey.</li><li> With the flow of goods normalized as the company fully anniversaries the negative impact of tariffs, Vince stores are now driving Fall offerings, with a great assortment of sweaters, jackets, pants, dresses and key Fall driven goods as their customer base begins to shift their purchases to the next season.</li><li> Although early, we are already excited about the continued focus on multiple hues, great looking sweaters and outerwear and full price selling.</li></ul>

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $9 price target and projections for Vince Holding after visiting Vince stores in Connecticut, Long Island and New Jersey. With the flow of goods normalized as the company fully anniversaries the negative impact of tariffs, Vince stores are now driving Fall offerings, with a great assortment of sweaters, jackets, pants, dresses and key Fall driven goods as their customer base begins to shift their purchases to the next season. Although early, we are already excited about the continued focus on multiple hues, great looking sweaters and outerwear and full price selling.

VNCE: Snapping the Store: Winning Streak Carries into Fall; Reiterate Buy, PT

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We believe there is significant evidence that the broad equity market has bottomed, and a year-end rally has begun. This report elaborates on this main point</li>
<li>Last week (10/31/23) we discussed how the $SPX and $QQQ did not display decisive breakdowns, and that a break above 4165-4200 and $350-$355, respectively, would be bullish, that's what happened</li>
<li>Additionally, we discussed how risk/reward favored buyers with the $IWM testing 1.5-year support at $162-$163, a logical spot for small-caps to bounce, especially when we considering persistent bullish breadth divergences.</li>
</ul>


We believe there is significant evidence that the broad equity market has bottomed, and a year-end rally has begun. This report elaborates on this main point
Last week (10/31/23) we discussed how the $SPX and $QQQ did not display decisive breakdowns, and that a break above 4165-4200 and $350-$355, respectively, would be bullish, that's what happened
Additionally, we discussed how risk/reward favored buyers with the $IWM testing 1.5-year support at $162-$163, a logical spot for small-caps to bounce, especially when we considering persistent bullish breadth divergences.


Just Another Counter-Trend Rally, or Something More? DXY and Treasury Yields Breaking Key Supports

<ul>
<li>Equities not yet out of the woods, but as long as SPX is above 4165-4200, most signs point to this being a normal pullback within the ongoing bullish SPX trend.</li>
<li>Similarly, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is testing support at $350-$355 (the 4-month bull flag/falling wedge pattern). The Russell 2000 is also approaching 1+ year support at 1640.</li>
<li>Breakdowns would be our cue to get defensive, as it would likely lead to precipitous declines. However, if supports hold, this is where risk/reward is skewed in favor of buyers.</li>
</ul>


Equities not yet out of the woods, but as long as SPX is above 4165-4200, most signs point to this being a normal pullback within the ongoing bullish SPX trend.
Similarly, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is testing support at $350-$355 (the 4-month bull flag/falling wedge pattern). The Russell 2000 is also approaching 1+ year support at 1640.
Breakdowns would be our cue to get defensive, as it would likely lead to precipitous declines. However, if supports hold, this is where risk/reward is skewed in favor of buyers.


S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Back at Support; Downgrading Discretionary to Market, Materials to Underweight

United States

Guess?, Inc. designs, markets, distributes, and licenses a collection of casual apparel, accessories, and related consumer products.  The Company's apparel for men, women, and girls are marketed under branded names.  Guess? provides full collections of denim and cotton clothing and has granted licenses to manufacture complementary products.

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Guess? Inc (GES US)

VNCE: OVO Acquisition; 2Q At Upper End; Expanding the Model; Reiterate Buy, $9 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating and $9 price target for Vince Holding after the company announced the acquisition of the operating assets of...

Small Cap Consumer Research

LE: 2Q Preview: Proving a New Baseline; Reiterate Buy, $20 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and $20 price target for Lands’ End with the company announcing 2QFY26 (July) results before the...

Small Cap Consumer Research

VNCE: Snapping the Store: Winning Streak Carries into Fall; Reiterate Buy, PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $9 price target and projections for Vince Holding after visiting Vince stores in Connecticut, Long Island and...

Small Cap Consumer Research

Just Another Counter-Trend Rally, or Something More? DXY and Treasury Yields Breaking Key Supports

Just Another Counter-Trend Rally, or Something More?; $DXY and Treasury Yields $TNX $TYX Breaking Key Supports, several other reasons why we...

Vermilion Research

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Back at Support; Downgrading Discretionary to Market, Materials to Underweight

Unchanged outlook: equities not yet out of the woods, but as long as the $SPX is above 4165-4200, most signs point to this being a normal pullback....

Vermilion Research

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