External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Our ADD recommendation on Gujarat Gas (GGL), with a price target of INR 510, is premised on (1) volume growth of only ~8% CAGR over FY23-25E compared to ~18% volume growth seen over FY19-22 (2) increased pricing competition from alternate fuel in the industrial/commercial segment and (3) low visibility on spot LNG prices in the medium term</li><li>Q4FY23 EBITDA/PAT at INR 5.6/3.7bn came in below our estimates, owing to lower-than-expected per unit EBITDA margins</li><li>Volumes rose sharply QoQ by 22% on account of higher offtake by domestic household and industrial segments</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Our ADD recommendation on Gujarat Gas (GGL), with a price target of INR 510, is premised on (1) volume growth of only ~8% CAGR over FY23-25E compared to ~18% volume growth seen over FY19-22 (2) increased pricing competition from alternate fuel in the industrial/commercial segment and (3) low visibility on spot LNG prices in the medium termQ4FY23 EBITDA/PAT at INR 5.6/3.7bn came in below our estimates, owing to lower-than-expected per unit EBITDA marginsVolumes rose sharply QoQ by 22% on account of higher offtake by domestic household and industrial segmentsContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Gujarat Gas (Results Review 4QFY23) - Volume Growth Offset Margin Weakness.

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Pertamina Geothermal Energy PT / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pertamina-geothermal-energy-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36725:1" rel="noopener">Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO IJ)</a> priced its IPO at IDR875 per share to raise gross proceeds of IDR9.1 trillion (US$600 million). The shares will start trading tomorrow.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pertamina-geothermal-ipo-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:95013" rel="noopener">Pertamina Geothermal IPO: The Investment Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pertamina-geothermal-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:95096" rel="noopener">Pertamina Geothermal IPO: Valuation Insights</a>. </li>
<li>Peers have modestly re-rated and the IPO price continues to imply a discount to the median peer CY2023 EV/EBITDA multiple. Therefore, the IPO price remains attractive.</li>
</ul>



Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO IJ) priced its IPO at IDR875 per share to raise gross proceeds of IDR9.1 trillion (US$600 million). The shares will start trading tomorrow.
We previously discussed the IPO in Pertamina Geothermal IPO: The Investment Case and Pertamina Geothermal IPO: Valuation Insights. 
Peers have modestly re-rated and the IPO price continues to imply a discount to the median peer CY2023 EV/EBITDA multiple. Therefore, the IPO price remains attractive.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pertamina-geothermal-energy-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36725:1" rel="noopener">Pertamina Geothermal (0125738D IJ)</a>/PGE, a subsidiary of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-pertamina-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35862:1" rel="noopener">PT Pertamina (Persero) (PERT IJ)</a>, is seeking to raise up to US$600 million at a narrowed price range of IDR875-880 per share.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pertamina-geothermal-ipo-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:95013" rel="noopener">Pertamina Geothermal IPO: The Investment Case</a>. </li>
<li>PGE is attractively valued at the IPO price range. We would participate. Books will be closed on 10 February and the shares will start trading on 24 February.</li>
</ul>



Pertamina Geothermal (0125738D IJ)/PGE, a subsidiary of PT Pertamina (Persero) (PERT IJ), is seeking to raise up to US$600 million at a narrowed price range of IDR875-880 per share.
We previously discussed the IPO in Pertamina Geothermal IPO: The Investment Case. 
PGE is attractively valued at the IPO price range. We would participate. Books will be closed on 10 February and the shares will start trading on 24 February.


Pertamina Geothermal IPO: Valuation Insights

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), ICICI Securities Ltd

ICICI Securities Limited

ICICI Securities Ltd

ICICI Securities Limited provides investment services. The Company provides corporate and investment banking, securities, wealth management, retail brokerage, initial public offerings, and advisory services. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Gujarat Gas is one of India’s largest city gas distribution companies with highest sales volume among listed peers.</li><li>Sales volume grew at 15% CAGR in FY17-22 driven by industrial PNG </li><li>The company benefitted from the NGT order for Morbi industrial area.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Gujarat Gas is one of India’s largest city gas distribution companies with highest sales volume among listed peers.Sales volume grew at 15% CAGR in FY17-22 driven by industrial PNG The company benefitted from the NGT order for Morbi industrial area.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Gujarat Gas - Muted Volume Outlook in near Term…

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>City Gas Distribution (CGD) companies, Indraprastha Gas (IGL), Gujarat Gas (GGL), and Mahanagar Gas (MGL) have corrected by 26-29% over the last 12 months, underperforming the BSE Sensex by 28-31%, as investors expected sustained margin pressure with rising input gas costs</li><li>We believe the correction is overdone especially as the CGDs have passed on the input gas cost increase underscoring their pricing power, the government has tweaked domestic gas supply to favour the CGDs and CNG/DPNG (domestic piped natural gas) volume has seen minimal adverse impact of the retail price increases</li><li>Notwithstanding the challenges, we expect overall gas demand from the CNG and DPNG sectors to grow at 15.7% CAGR over FY22-27 supported by aggressive expansion in infrastructure.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

City Gas Distribution (CGD) companies, Indraprastha Gas (IGL), Gujarat Gas (GGL), and Mahanagar Gas (MGL) have corrected by 26-29% over the last 12 months, underperforming the BSE Sensex by 28-31%, as investors expected sustained margin pressure with rising input gas costsWe believe the correction is overdone especially as the CGDs have passed on the input gas cost increase underscoring their pricing power, the government has tweaked domestic gas supply to favour the CGDs and CNG/DPNG (domestic piped natural gas) volume has seen minimal adverse impact of the retail price increasesNotwithstanding the challenges, we expect overall gas demand from the CNG and DPNG sectors to grow at 15.7% CAGR over FY22-27 supported by aggressive expansion in infrastructure.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

India City Gas Sector - Weathering the ‘Perfect Storm’

India

Gujarat Gas Limited provides natural gas. The Company supplies piped natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. Gujarat Gas serves customers in India.

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Gujarat Gas Ltd (GUJGA IN)

Gujarat Gas (Results Review 4QFY23) - Volume Growth Offset Margin Weakness.

Our ADD recommendation on Gujarat Gas (GGL), with a price target of INR 510, is premised on (1) volume growth of only ~8% CAGR over FY23-25E...

HDFC Securities

Pertamina Geothermal IPO: Trading Debut

Peers have modestly re-rated and the IPO price continues to imply a discount to the median peer CY2023 EV/EBITDA multiple. Therefore, the IPO price...

Arun George

Pertamina Geothermal IPO: Valuation Insights

The price range has been narrowed from IDR820-945 to IDR875-880 per share. PGE is attractively valued at the IPO price range. We would participate.

Arun George

Gujarat Gas - Muted Volume Outlook in near Term…

Gujarat Gas is one of India’s largest city gas distribution companies with highest sales volume among listed peers. Sales volume grew at 15% CAGR...

ICICI Securities Limited

India City Gas Sector - Weathering the ‘Perfect Storm’

City Gas Distribution (CGD) companies, Indraprastha Gas (IGL), Gujarat Gas (GGL), and Mahanagar Gas (MGL) have corrected by 26-29% over the last 12...

HDFC Securities

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