External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Equity Bottom-Up

We value the transmission business using discounted cash flow (DCF) at INR 137/sh (WACC of 10% and terminal growth rate of 3%). To this, we add INR 201/sh as the value of its investments in Gujarat Gas, Sabarmati Gas, etc. to arrive at the target price of INR 338/sh. The stock is trading at 6.9x FY23E PER.<div class="content-highlight">Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</div>

We value the transmission business using discounted cash flow (DCF) at INR 137/sh (WACC of 10% and terminal growth rate of 3%). To this, we add INR 201/sh as the value of its investments in Gujarat Gas, Sabarmati Gas, etc. to arrive at the target price of INR 338/sh. The stock is trading at 6.9x FY23E PER.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Gujarat State Petronet

Asia-Focused Industry Research, Speeda Research

Speeda

Asia-Focused Industry Research

Speeda Research

Speeda Research analysts cover China, Japan, India and SEA on the latest trends and topics. We have analysts of diverse nationalities who are able to access information in their respective local languages to provide customers with comprehensive reports. With access to private company data in these regions, Speeda Research is also able to provide insights into niche sectors which are not usually covered by other parties. We are also able to undertake ad hoc company and industry research reports.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

During our visit to New Delhi in December 2016, we had to defend ourselves from demonetization and the city’s choking air pollution. Even as India staggers to find a solution to the latter, four of its cities are among the world's top ten worst-ranked cities for air pollution. We wondered if the environment in the South would meet a similar fate and decided to look at steps taken in the North to curtail the calamity. While we have already spoken in detail about the status of piped natural gas in India in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/falling-natural-gas-production-and-poor-import-infra-make-png-a-distant-dream-for-most-indians" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:9432">Falling Natural Gas Production and Poor Import Infra Make PNG a Distant Dream for Most Indians</a>, we will look at the CNG segment in this report and how it can make a difference.

During our visit to New Delhi in December 2016, we had to defend ourselves from demonetization and the city’s choking air pollution. Even as India staggers to find a solution to the latter, four of its cities are among the world's top ten worst-ranked cities for air pollution. We wondered if the environment in the South would meet a similar fate and decided to look at steps taken in the North to curtail the calamity. While we have already spoken in detail about the status of piped natural gas in India in Falling Natural Gas Production and Poor Import Infra Make PNG a Distant Dream for Most Indians, we will look at the CNG segment in this report and how it can make a difference. 

New CGD Networks Give South India the Potential to Lead CNG Growth in Second Half of the Decade

In July 2015, the Indian government set a target of 10 million PNG (piped natural gas) connections to be made within two years. But as of September 2016, the government was 7 million short of its goal with the odds of achieving it in less than a year seeming very low. Increasing PNG and CNG (compressed natural gas) connections are part of the government’s wider plan to more than double the share of natural gas in India’s energy mix to 20% by 2025. To achieve this goal, the government needs to ramp up transmission infrastructure and increase capacity of import infrastructure to cater to the expected surge in natural gas imports, apart from introducing key policies with regards to pricing, taxation and regulation. Based on past evidence and the information provided within this report, we think the government will fall short of its energy mix targets, just like it did in the PNG segment.

In July 2015, the Indian government set a target of 10 million PNG (piped natural gas) connections to be made within two years. But as of September 2016, the government was 7 million short of its goal with the odds of achieving it in less than a year seeming very low. Increasing PNG and CNG (compressed natural gas) connections are part of the government’s wider plan to more than double the share of natural gas in India’s energy mix to 20% by 2025. To achieve this goal, the government needs to ramp up transmission infrastructure and increase capacity of import infrastructure to cater to the expected surge in natural gas imports, apart from introducing key policies with regards to pricing, taxation and regulation. Based on past evidence and the information provided within this report, we think the government will fall short of its energy mix targets, just like it did in the PNG segment.

Falling Natural Gas Production and Poor Import Infra Make PNG a Distant Dream for Most Indians

Asia focused research insights & advisory, Asia Advisors

Vinay Patel

Asia focused research insights & advisory

Asia Advisors

Asia Advisors is an independent financial advisory and research firm working closely with corporates and institutions to provide consulting solutions & research insights. We provide advisory services including capital solutions, business strategy and investment insights.
Firm is headed by Vinay Patel who has close to two decades of experience in research and business development at large, international investment banks such as HSBC and ICICI Securities. Led research efforts in areas of Macroeconomics, Asset Allocation & Investment Strategy for close to a decade in global & domestic research teams. As a business head in Singapore, advised top global investment management firms & Portfolio managers in Asia for India related investments.
Vinay was recently joined by Swapnil Manish, an investment banker and ex-ecommerce entrepreneur with more than 12 years of experience. Swapnil was the TMT banker at BNP Paribas and was part of several large M&A and ECM transactions (Bharti-Zain, Bharti Infratel IPO, Schneider-Zicom among several others). He's also had a stint as an ecommerce entrepreneur having launched & led Mumbai's first online grocery player.

Expectations on economic reforms from Modi government are running high after the big win in Uttar Pradesh. Political analysts are expecting this win to ease Modi's chances for another term at national elections in 2019 and that would give him total 7 year period to push for reforms (In his victory speech Modi himself said he is now looking for delivering by 2022 - the 75th year of Indian Independence). Amidst the euphoria of Modi's victory, we would like to highlight some of the ground realities…

Expectations on economic reforms from Modi government are running high after the big win in Uttar Pradesh. Political analysts are expecting this win to ease Modi's chances for another term at national elections in 2019 and that would give him total 7 year period to push for reforms (In his victory speech Modi himself said he is now looking for delivering by 2022 - the 75th year of Indian Independence). Amidst the euphoria of Modi's victory, we would like to highlight some of the ground realities…

Investors Need To Be Patient With Reform Momentum Even As Modi Win Ensures Policy Continuity

Ruling party BJP has won a landslide victory in the largest state of Uttar Pradesh (UP) thereby putting to rest any doubts over the adverse impact of demonetisation on the electoral prospects of the party. Performance in UP is impressive as the opposition had formed an alliance to fight Modi but still lost poorly.  Most political analysts have been caught on the wrong foot as they predicted a hung assembly while the results show that Modi wave seen during the General elections continues. We…

Ruling party BJP has won a landslide victory in the largest state of Uttar Pradesh (UP) thereby putting to rest any doubts over the adverse impact of demonetisation on the electoral prospects of the party. Performance in UP is impressive as the opposition had formed an alliance to fight Modi but still lost poorly.  Most political analysts have been caught on the wrong foot as they predicted a hung assembly while the results show that Modi wave seen during the General elections continues. We…

Landslide Win for Modi in UP Elections;Upper House No.s to Cross 100 Mark by 2018, a +ve for Reforms

India

Gujarat Gas Limited provides natural gas. The Company supplies piped natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. Gujarat Gas serves customers in India.

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Gujarat Gas Ltd (GUJGA IN)

HSIE Results Daily: Gujarat State Petronet

We value the transmission business using discounted cash flow (DCF) at INR 137/sh (WACC of 10% and terminal growth rate of 3%). To this, we add INR...

HDFC Securities

New CGD Networks Give South India the Potential to Lead CNG Growth in Second Half of the Decade

During our visit to New Delhi in December 2016, we had to defend ourselves from demonetization and the city’s choking air pollution. Even as India...

Speeda Research

Falling Natural Gas Production and Poor Import Infra Make PNG a Distant Dream for Most Indians

In July 2015, the Indian government set a target of 10 million PNG (piped natural gas) connections to be made within two years. But as of September...

Speeda Research

Investors Need To Be Patient With Reform Momentum Even As Modi Win Ensures Policy Continuity

Expectations on economic reforms from Modi government are running high after the big win in Uttar Pradesh. Political analysts are expecting this...

Asia Advisors

Landslide Win for Modi in UP Elections;Upper House No.s to Cross 100 Mark by 2018, a +ve for Reforms

Ruling party BJP has won a landslide victory in the largest state of Uttar Pradesh (UP) thereby putting to rest any doubts over the adverse impact...

Asia Advisors

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