Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and we would look for an important low to be made near the U.S. election.</li>
<li>Supports to watch continue to be $110 on $ACWI and $41-42 on MSCI EM $EEM, and whether these levels hold or not will determine the severity of the pullback.</li>
<li>Primary reasons for this bearish expectation include major bullish RS inflections for defensive Sectors, and bearish price action in the U.S. (SPX), Japan (TOPIX/Nikkei 225), and Europe (EURO STOXX 50)</li>
</ul>


We believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and we would look for an important low to be made near the U.S. election.
Supports to watch continue to be $110 on $ACWI and $41-42 on MSCI EM $EEM, and whether these levels hold or not will determine the severity of the pullback.
Primary reasons for this bearish expectation include major bullish RS inflections for defensive Sectors, and bearish price action in the U.S. (SPX), Japan (TOPIX/Nikkei 225), and Europe (EURO STOXX 50)


Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives; More Countries With Improving Price and RS Trends

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Larsen &amp; Toubro: Larsen &amp; Toubro (LT) reported an in-line performance, with revenue/EBITDA/APAT at INR 670.8/72.3/43bn, a beat/(miss) of 1.3/(7.4)/(1.2)%</li><li>P&amp;M margins came in weaker than expected which resulted in LT achieving the lower end of FY24 margin guidance of 8.25-8.5% at 8.2%</li><li>LT gave 15/10% revenue/order inflow guidance for FY25 which is better than expected</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Larsen &amp; Toubro: Larsen &amp; Toubro (LT) reported an in-line performance, with revenue/EBITDA/APAT at INR 670.8/72.3/43bn, a beat/(miss) of 1.3/(7.4)/(1.2)%P&amp;M margins came in weaker than expected which resulted in LT achieving the lower end of FY24 margin guidance of 8.25-8.5% at 8.2%LT gave 15/10% revenue/order inflow guidance for FY25 which is better than expectedContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Larsen & Toubro, TVS Motor, Hero Motocorp

<ul><li>Larsen &amp; Toubro: Larsen &amp; Toubro (LT) reported an in-line performance, with revenue/EBITDA/APAT at INR 670.8/72.3/43bn, a beat/(miss) of 1.3/(7.4)/(1.2)%</li><li>P&amp;M margins came in weaker than expected which resulted in LT achieving the lower end of FY24 margin guidance of 8.25-8.5% at 8.2%</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Larsen &amp; Toubro: Larsen &amp; Toubro (LT) reported an in-line performance, with revenue/EBITDA/APAT at INR 670.8/72.3/43bn, a beat/(miss) of 1.3/(7.4)/(1.2)%P&amp;M margins came in weaker than expected which resulted in LT achieving the lower end of FY24 margin guidance of 8.25-8.5% at 8.2%Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Larsen & Toubro, TVS Motor, Hero Motocorp, Bharat Forge, Gujarat Gas

<ul><li>Gujarat Gas: Our ADD recommendation on Gujarat Gas (GGL), with a price target of INR 600/sh, is premised on (1) volume growth of only ~10% CAGR over FY24-26E compared to ~18% volume growth seen over FY19-22 and (2) increased pricing competition from alternate fuel in the industrial/commercial segment</li><li>Q3FY24 EBITDA/PAT at INR 4/2.2bn came in below our estimates, owing to lower-than-expected volumes and per unit EBITDA margin</li><li>Volume stood at 9.16mmscmd (+26% YoY, -2% QoQ). Deepak Nitrite: We maintain SELL on Deepak Nitrite (DNL), with a price target of INR 1,448 (WACC 12%, terminal growth 4%)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Gujarat Gas: Our ADD recommendation on Gujarat Gas (GGL), with a price target of INR 600/sh, is premised on (1) volume growth of only ~10% CAGR over FY24-26E compared to ~18% volume growth seen over FY19-22 and (2) increased pricing competition from alternate fuel in the industrial/commercial segmentQ3FY24 EBITDA/PAT at INR 4/2.2bn came in below our estimates, owing to lower-than-expected volumes and per unit EBITDA marginVolume stood at 9.16mmscmd (+26% YoY, -2% QoQ). Deepak Nitrite: We maintain SELL on Deepak Nitrite (DNL), with a price target of INR 1,448 (WACC 12%, terminal growth 4%)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Gujarat Gas, Deepak Nitrite, Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail

<ul><li>State Bank of India: SBIN’s Q2FY24 outcomes missed estimates because of lower-than-expected non-interest income and higher opex stemming from wage arrears, partly offset by a provision reversal</li><li>Loan growth moderated (+12.4% YoY) as domestic margins stabilised at 3.45% (-2bps sequentially)</li><li>Gross slippages clocked in at 0.5% annualised, partly offset by healthy recoveries/w-offs, resulting in GNPAs trending further lower (2.6%)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

State Bank of India: SBIN’s Q2FY24 outcomes missed estimates because of lower-than-expected non-interest income and higher opex stemming from wage arrears, partly offset by a provision reversalLoan growth moderated (+12.4% YoY) as domestic margins stabilised at 3.45% (-2bps sequentially)Gross slippages clocked in at 0.5% annualised, partly offset by healthy recoveries/w-offs, resulting in GNPAs trending further lower (2.6%)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: State Bank of India, Titan, Gujarat Gas, Relaxo Footwears, Orient Electric

India

Gujarat Energy is an integrated energy company engaged in city gas distribution, natural gas trading, and exploration and production of oil and gas resources. It operates India's largest city gas distribution network, supplying piped natural gas to domestic, commercial, and industrial customers, and compressed natural gas to vehicles. The company is headquartered in Gandhinagar, India, and was incorporated on February 21, 2012, as GSPC Distribution Networks Limited, later changing its name to Gujarat Gas Limited and then to Gujarat Energy Limited following a composite scheme of amalgamation in April 2026.

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Gujarat Energy (GUJENERG IN)

Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives; More Countries With Improving Price and RS Trends

Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives. We continue to believe a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and would look for an...

Vermilion Research

HSIE Results Daily: Larsen & Toubro, TVS Motor, Hero Motocorp

Larsen & Toubro: Larsen & Toubro (LT) reported an in-line performance, with revenue/EBITDA/APAT at INR 670.8/72.3/43bn, a beat/(miss) of 1.3/(7.4)...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: Larsen & Toubro, TVS Motor, Hero Motocorp, Bharat Forge, Gujarat Gas

Larsen & Toubro: Larsen & Toubro (LT) reported an in-line performance, with revenue/EBITDA/APAT at INR 670.8/72.3/43bn, a beat/(miss) of 1.3/(7.4)...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: Gujarat Gas, Deepak Nitrite, Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail

Q3FY24 EBITDA/PAT at INR 4/2.2bn came in below our estimates, owing to lower-than-expected volumes and per unit EBITDA margin

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: State Bank of India, Titan, Gujarat Gas, Relaxo Footwears, Orient Electric

SBIN’s Q2FY24 outcomes missed estimates because of lower-than-expected non-interest income and higher opex stemming from wage arrears, partly...

HDFC Securities

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