Director, Head of Research, Smartkarma

Pranav Rao

Director, Head of Research

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma</li>
<li>In this cut, we look through the bubble in Chinese tea company listings, the recent entertainment provided by Japanese M&amp;A situations and the varied ways analysts look at TSMC on Smartkarma</li>
<li>Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you think should be highlighted next time</li>
</ul>


Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma
In this cut, we look through the bubble in Chinese tea company listings, the recent entertainment provided by Japanese M&amp;A situations and the varied ways analysts look at TSMC on Smartkarma
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you think should be highlighted next time


Curator's Cut: "Bubble" Tea, Japan M&A 🍿& TSMC from Different Lenses

Smartkarma's AI Co-Pilot, Smartkarma

αSK

Smartkarma's AI Co-Pilot

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
 <li>
<a href="https://smartkarma.com/entities/guming-holdings-ltd">Guming Holdings</a> is a leading player in China's rapidly growing, yet highly competitive, freshly-made tea beverage market, with a strong focus on the mid-priced segment and a significant presence in lower-tier cities.</li>
 <li>The company's asset-light, franchise-centric business model, supported by a robust, self-operated supply chain and cold-chain logistics network, provides a significant cost advantage and a scalable platform for growth.</li>
 <li>While demonstrating impressive historical revenue and profit growth, the company faces considerable risks from intense market competition, potential margin compression from price wars, and a reliance on the discretionary spending of consumers in a challenging macroeconomic environment.</li>
</ul>This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


  
Guming Holdings is a leading player in China's rapidly growing, yet highly competitive, freshly-made tea beverage market, with a strong focus on the mid-priced segment and a significant presence in lower-tier cities.
  The company's asset-light, franchise-centric business model, supported by a robust, self-operated supply chain and cold-chain logistics network, provides a significant cost advantage and a scalable platform for growth.
  While demonstrating impressive historical revenue and profit growth, the company faces considerable risks from intense market competition, potential margin compression from price wars, and a reliance on the discretionary spending of consumers in a challenging macroeconomic environment.
This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Primer: Guming Holdings (1364 HK) - Apr 2026

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/auntea-jenny-shanghai-industrial-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40891:1" rel="noopener">Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial (2589 HK)</a>'s IPO price is set at HK$113.12, which is aggressive based on its financial and operational metrics. </li>
<li>At 29.3x FY25F PER, Auntea Jenny's multiple is close to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group (2097 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guming-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40622:1" rel="noopener">Guming Holdings (1364 HK)</a>, but it is significantly smaller in scale and lower in profitability. </li>
<li>Our fair value of 25x PER and 5.3x P/B for FY25 means a share price of HK$94.70-96.68. Initial euphoria may inflate its debut, but we will exit on the rally.</li>
</ul>



Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial (2589 HK)'s IPO price is set at HK$113.12, which is aggressive based on its financial and operational metrics. 
At 29.3x FY25F PER, Auntea Jenny's multiple is close to Mixue Group (2097 HK) and Guming Holdings (1364 HK), but it is significantly smaller in scale and lower in profitability. 
Our fair value of 25x PER and 5.3x P/B for FY25 means a share price of HK$94.70-96.68. Initial euphoria may inflate its debut, but we will exit on the rally.


Auntea Jenny (2589 HK): What Is the Fair Value?

External reports (aggregated public sources), Value Investors Club

Value Investors Club (VIC)

External reports (aggregated public sources)

Value Investors Club

Key points (machine generated)<ul><li>Hong Kong-listed bubble tea companies are seen as classic fad stocks, presenting short-selling opportunities.</li><li>Guming is highlighted as the preferred choice for short-selling due to its available borrow, while Nayuki serves as a cautionary example of decline.</li><li>The author compares the bubble tea trend to previous restaurant fads, indicating a pattern of declining growth and increased competition.</li></ul>This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Key points (machine generated)Hong Kong-listed bubble tea companies are seen as classic fad stocks, presenting short-selling opportunities.Guming is highlighted as the preferred choice for short-selling due to its available borrow, while Nayuki serves as a cautionary example of decline.The author compares the bubble tea trend to previous restaurant fads, indicating a pattern of declining growth and increased competition.This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Guming Holdings (1364 HK) - Thursday, Jul 10, 2025

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guming-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40622:1" rel="noopener">Guming Holdings (1364 HK)</a> raised around US$233m in its Hong Kong IPO in Feb 2025. Its pre-IPO and cornerstone investors will be released from their lockup soon.</li>
<li>After a hesitant start, the shares are now trading well above the listing price, leaving its pre-IPO and cornerstone investors well in the money.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.</li>
</ul>



Guming Holdings (1364 HK) raised around US$233m in its Hong Kong IPO in Feb 2025. Its pre-IPO and cornerstone investors will be released from their lockup soon.
After a hesitant start, the shares are now trading well above the listing price, leaving its pre-IPO and cornerstone investors well in the money.
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.


Guming Holdings Lockup Expiry - US$1.5bn Lockup Expiry with Everyone Well in the Money

China

Guming Holdings Limited is a holding company primarily engaged in the production and sale of freshly made beverages through its "Good me" brand. It operates a franchised tea store retail network, offering fruit tea, milk tea, and coffee beverages. The company was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, China.

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Guming (1364 HK)

Curator's Cut: "Bubble" Tea, Japan M&A 🍿& TSMC from Different Lenses

Introducing the Curator's Cut fortnightly newsletter, featuring interesting themes from the Smartkarma network. Share your thoughts!

Pranav Rao

Primer: Guming Holdings (1364 HK) - Apr 2026

Guming Holdings is a leading player in China's rapidly growing, yet highly competitive, freshly-made tea beverage market, with a strong focus...

αSK

Auntea Jenny (2589 HK): What Is the Fair Value?

Auntea Jenny's IPO price of HK$113.12 is aggressive based on financial and operational metrics. We arrive at a fair value estimate of HK$94.70...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Guming Holdings (1364 HK) - Thursday, Jul 10, 2025

The author identifies Hong Kong-listed bubble tea companies as classic fad stocks ideal for short-selling, highlighting Guming as the top choice...

Value Investors Club (VIC)

Guming Holdings Lockup Expiry - US$1.5bn Lockup Expiry with Everyone Well in the Money

Guming Holdings (1364 HK) raised around US$233m in its Hong Kong IPO in Feb 2025. Its pre-IPO and cornerstone investors will be released from their...

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Curator's Cut: "Bubble" Tea, Japan M&A 🍿& TSMC from Different Lenses

​Introducing the Curator's Cut fortnightly newsletter, featuring interesting themes from the Smartkarma network. Share your thoughts!

Pranav Rao

Primer: Guming Holdings (1364 HK) - Apr 2026

Guming Holdings is a leading player in China's rapidly growing, yet highly competitive, freshly-made tea beverage market, with a strong focus...

αSK

Auntea Jenny (2589 HK): What Is the Fair Value?

​Auntea Jenny's IPO price of HK$113.12 is aggressive based on financial and operational metrics. We arrive at a fair value estimate of HK$94.70...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Guming Holdings (1364 HK) - Thursday, Jul 10, 2025

The author identifies Hong Kong-listed bubble tea companies as classic fad stocks ideal for short-selling, highlighting Guming as the top choice...

Value Investors Club (VIC)

Guming Holdings Lockup Expiry - US$1.5bn Lockup Expiry with Everyone Well in the Money

Guming Holdings (1364 HK) raised around US$233m in its Hong Kong IPO in Feb 2025. Its pre-IPO and cornerstone investors will be released from their...

Sumeet Singh

Introducing the Curator's Cut fortnightly newsletter, featuring interesting themes from the Smartkarma network. Share your thoughts!

Auntea Jenny's IPO price of HK$113.12 is aggressive based on financial and operational metrics. We arrive at a fair value estimate of HK$94.70...