Director, Head of Research, Smartkarma

Pranav Rao

Director, Head of Research

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma</li>
<li>In this cut, we look through the bubble in Chinese tea company listings, the recent entertainment provided by Japanese M&amp;A situations and the varied ways analysts look at TSMC on Smartkarma</li>
<li>Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you think should be highlighted next time</li>
</ul>


Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma
In this cut, we look through the bubble in Chinese tea company listings, the recent entertainment provided by Japanese M&amp;A situations and the varied ways analysts look at TSMC on Smartkarma
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you think should be highlighted next time


Curator's Cut: "Bubble" Tea, Japan M&A 🍿& TSMC from Different Lenses

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Jul 10th based on HKEx daily reports.</li>
<li>In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Kuaishou (1024 HK), Gcl Technology (3800 HK).</li>
<li>In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Li Auto (2015 HK), Xiaomi (1810 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Jul 10th based on HKEx daily reports.
In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Kuaishou (1024 HK), Gcl Technology (3800 HK).
In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Li Auto (2015 HK), Xiaomi (1810 HK).


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jul 10th): Tencent, Kuaishou, Gcl Technology, Link Reit

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/auntea-jenny-shanghai-industrial-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40891:1" rel="noopener">Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial (2589 HK)</a>'s IPO price is set at HK$113.12, which is aggressive based on its financial and operational metrics. </li>
<li>At 29.3x FY25F PER, Auntea Jenny's multiple is close to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group (2097 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guming-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40622:1" rel="noopener">Guming Holdings (1364 HK)</a>, but it is significantly smaller in scale and lower in profitability. </li>
<li>Our fair value of 25x PER and 5.3x P/B for FY25 means a share price of HK$94.70-96.68. Initial euphoria may inflate its debut, but we will exit on the rally.</li>
</ul>



Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial (2589 HK)'s IPO price is set at HK$113.12, which is aggressive based on its financial and operational metrics. 
At 29.3x FY25F PER, Auntea Jenny's multiple is close to Mixue Group (2097 HK) and Guming Holdings (1364 HK), but it is significantly smaller in scale and lower in profitability. 
Our fair value of 25x PER and 5.3x P/B for FY25 means a share price of HK$94.70-96.68. Initial euphoria may inflate its debut, but we will exit on the rally.


Auntea Jenny (2589 HK): What Is the Fair Value?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Positioning across key consumer stocks stabilized in the two weeks ended 8 Sep.</li><li>Average short interest inched up 0.1pp to 8.8% of free float, near 6-month highs.</li><li>Days to cover (DTC) eased to 8.3 days from 8.5 as turnover normalised post the interim earnings season (Figure 2). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Positioning across key consumer stocks stabilized in the two weeks ended 8 Sep.Average short interest inched up 0.1pp to 8.8% of free float, near 6-month highs.Days to cover (DTC) eased to 8.3 days from 8.5 as turnover normalised post the interim earnings season (Figure 2). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Consumer Discretionary - Bi-Weekly Flow Monitor: Shorts Rotating to Franchise Chains;

Smartkarma AI Primers, Smartkarma

αSK Primers

Smartkarma AI Primers

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
 <li>
<a href="https://smartkarma.com/entities/guming-holdings-ltd">Guming Holdings</a> is a leading player in China's rapidly growing, yet highly competitive, freshly-made tea beverage market, with a strong focus on the mid-priced segment and a significant presence in lower-tier cities.</li>
 <li>The company's asset-light, franchise-centric business model, supported by a robust, self-operated supply chain and cold-chain logistics network, provides a significant cost advantage and a scalable platform for growth.</li>
 <li>While demonstrating impressive historical revenue and profit growth, the company faces considerable risks from intense market competition, potential margin compression from price wars, and a reliance on the discretionary spending of consumers in a challenging macroeconomic environment.</li>
</ul>This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


  
Guming Holdings is a leading player in China's rapidly growing, yet highly competitive, freshly-made tea beverage market, with a strong focus on the mid-priced segment and a significant presence in lower-tier cities.
  The company's asset-light, franchise-centric business model, supported by a robust, self-operated supply chain and cold-chain logistics network, provides a significant cost advantage and a scalable platform for growth.
  While demonstrating impressive historical revenue and profit growth, the company faces considerable risks from intense market competition, potential margin compression from price wars, and a reliance on the discretionary spending of consumers in a challenging macroeconomic environment.
This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Primer: Guming Holdings (1364 HK) - Apr 2026

China

Guming Holdings Limited is a holding company primarily engaged in the production and sale of freshly made beverages through its "Good me" brand. It operates a franchised tea store retail network, offering fruit tea, milk tea, and coffee beverages. The company was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, China.

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Guming (1364 HK)

Curator's Cut: "Bubble" Tea, Japan M&A 🍿& TSMC from Different Lenses

Introducing the Curator's Cut fortnightly newsletter, featuring interesting themes from the Smartkarma network. Share your thoughts!

Pranav Rao

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jul 10th): Tencent, Kuaishou, Gcl Technology, Link Reit

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were Tencent (700 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Auntea Jenny (2589 HK): What Is the Fair Value?

Auntea Jenny's IPO price of HK$113.12 is aggressive based on financial and operational metrics. We arrive at a fair value estimate of HK$94.70...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Consumer Discretionary - Bi-Weekly Flow Monitor: Shorts Rotating to Franchise Chains;

Positioning across key consumer stocks stabilized in the two weeks ended 8 Sep. Average short interest inched up 0.1pp to 8.8% of free float, near...

CMB International

Primer: Guming Holdings (1364 HK) - Apr 2026

Guming Holdings is a leading player in China's rapidly growing, yet highly competitive, freshly-made tea beverage market, with a strong focus...

αSK Primers

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Curator's Cut: "Bubble" Tea, Japan M&A 🍿& TSMC from Different Lenses

​Introducing the Curator's Cut fortnightly newsletter, featuring interesting themes from the Smartkarma network. Share your thoughts!

Pranav Rao

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jul 10th): Tencent, Kuaishou, Gcl Technology, Link Reit

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were Tencent (700 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Auntea Jenny (2589 HK): What Is the Fair Value?

​Auntea Jenny's IPO price of HK$113.12 is aggressive based on financial and operational metrics. We arrive at a fair value estimate of HK$94.70...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Consumer Discretionary - Bi-Weekly Flow Monitor: Shorts Rotating to Franchise Chains;

Positioning across key consumer stocks stabilized in the two weeks ended 8 Sep. Average short interest inched up 0.1pp to 8.8% of free float, near...

CMB International

Primer: Guming Holdings (1364 HK) - Apr 2026

Guming Holdings is a leading player in China's rapidly growing, yet highly competitive, freshly-made tea beverage market, with a strong focus...

αSK Primers

Introducing the Curator's Cut fortnightly newsletter, featuring interesting themes from the Smartkarma network. Share your thoughts!

Auntea Jenny's IPO price of HK$113.12 is aggressive based on financial and operational metrics. We arrive at a fair value estimate of HK$94.70...