Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of June 27th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for CCB, SMIC, Meituan, Guotai Junan Intl, CMB, Tencent, Alibaba, Xiaomi, BOC, Petrochina.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of June 27th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for CCB, SMIC, Meituan, Guotai Junan Intl, CMB, Tencent, Alibaba, Xiaomi, BOC, Petrochina.


HK Connect Flows Weekly (Jun 27th): CCB, SMIC, Meituan, Guotai Junan Intl, CMB, Tencent, Alibaba

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

COSCO SHIPPING Development / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>AH spreads are slightly narrower, but performance is concentrated in fewer names and broad spread volatility is up. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> AH is negative now, maybe on HSTECH inclusion expectations.</li>
<li>I didn't expect much out of Geneva last weekend. I was wrong in that there was a big announcement, but maybe not wrong because content was pretty slim.</li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Monitor</a> are both there free for SK readers.</li>
</ul>


AH spreads are slightly narrower, but performance is concentrated in fewer names and broad spread volatility is up. BYD (1211 HK) AH is negative now, maybe on HSTECH inclusion expectations.
I didn't expect much out of Geneva last weekend. I was wrong in that there was a big announcement, but maybe not wrong because content was pretty slim.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 16 May 2025):  AH Premia Contract Small Again. BYD and CMB Go Negative.

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 149 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 83.5% as of May 16th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -0.8ppt week-on-week, led by energy, communication services, financials and offset by consumer staples.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Cosco Shipping Development, Qingdao Port International, Cosco Shipping, BYD.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 149 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 83.5% as of May 16th.
The average A-H premium changed by -0.8ppt week-on-week, led by energy, communication services, financials and offset by consumer staples.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Cosco Shipping Development, Qingdao Port International, Cosco Shipping, BYD.


A-H Premium Weekly (May 16th): Cosco Shipping Development, Qingdao Port International

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>Back on the 4th December 204, Starwood/Warburg Pincus Consortium announced a firm pre-conditional Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27983:1" rel="noopener"><strong>ESR Group (1821 HK)</strong></a> at HK$13/share (best &amp; final), by way of a Scheme.</li>
<li>The list of pre-cons was extensive. Last night (15th May), ESR announced the <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0515/2025051501469.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">satisfaction</a> of all pre-cons. </li>
<li>The Scheme Doc is now required to be dispatched by the 22nd May, suggesting payment around mid-July. Assuming no dispatch delays.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 4th December 204, Starwood/Warburg Pincus Consortium announced a firm pre-conditional Offer for ESR Group (1821 HK) at HK$13/share (best &amp; final), by way of a Scheme.
The list of pre-cons was extensive. Last night (15th May), ESR announced the satisfaction of all pre-cons. 
The Scheme Doc is now required to be dispatched by the 22nd May, suggesting payment around mid-July. Assuming no dispatch delays.


ESR (1821 HK): Pre-Cons Done. Scheme Doc By 22nd May

<ul>
<li>AH spreads are basically flat on the shortened week. AH premia rose in Pharma and Tech, fell in Industrials, Finance, and Banks. </li>
<li>All eyes will be on what happens in Geneva. I personally don't expect much. </li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Monitor</a> are both there free for SK readers.</li>
</ul>


AH spreads are basically flat on the shortened week. AH premia rose in Pharma and Tech, fell in Industrials, Finance, and Banks. 
All eyes will be on what happens in Geneva. I personally don't expect much. 
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 9 May 2025):  AH Premia Fall Small; Spread Torsion Provides Continued Alpha

China

Guolian Minsheng Securities provides a range of financial products and services in the People's Republic of China. Its core activities include brokerage and wealth management, credit transactions, investment banking, proprietary trading, and asset management. The company offers securities and futures trading, investment consulting, financial advisory services, and wealth management products. Headquartered in Wuxi, People's Republic of China, the company was founded in 1992.

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Guolian Minsheng Securities (1456 HK)

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Jun 27th): CCB, SMIC, Meituan, Guotai Junan Intl, CMB, Tencent, Alibaba

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for CCB, SMIC, Meituan, Guotai Junan Intl, CMB, Tencent,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A/H Premium Tracker (To 16 May 2025): AH Premia Contract Small Again. BYD and CMB Go Negative.

AH Premia down small but CMB goes negative again, and BYD now joins it in negative territory, possibly on expectations of HSTECH inclusion,...

Travis Lundy

A-H Premium Weekly (May 16th): Cosco Shipping Development, Qingdao Port International

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Cosco Shipping Development, Qingdao Port International,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

ESR (1821 HK): Pre-Cons Done. Scheme Doc By 22nd May

This was always a done deal. And timing is now more assured. Assuming mid-July payment, I'd pay up to HK$12.70/share, or 15% annualised.

David Blennerhassett

A/H Premium Tracker (To 9 May 2025): AH Premia Fall Small; Spread Torsion Provides Continued Alpha

AH Premia flat on the week. Volumes are low. All eyes are on Geneva this weekend and I have no view other than to say nothing gets solved in a...

Travis Lundy

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