Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Cosco Shipping Development / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>AH spreads are slightly narrower, but performance is concentrated in fewer names and broad spread volatility is up. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> AH is negative now, maybe on HSTECH inclusion expectations.</li>
<li>I didn't expect much out of Geneva last weekend. I was wrong in that there was a big announcement, but maybe not wrong because content was pretty slim.</li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Monitor</a> are both there free for SK readers.</li>
</ul>


AH spreads are slightly narrower, but performance is concentrated in fewer names and broad spread volatility is up. BYD (1211 HK) AH is negative now, maybe on HSTECH inclusion expectations.
I didn't expect much out of Geneva last weekend. I was wrong in that there was a big announcement, but maybe not wrong because content was pretty slim.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 16 May 2025):  AH Premia Contract Small Again. BYD and CMB Go Negative.

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 149 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 83.5% as of May 16th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -0.8ppt week-on-week, led by energy, communication services, financials and offset by consumer staples.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Cosco Shipping Development, Qingdao Port International, Cosco Shipping, BYD.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 149 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 83.5% as of May 16th.
The average A-H premium changed by -0.8ppt week-on-week, led by energy, communication services, financials and offset by consumer staples.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Cosco Shipping Development, Qingdao Port International, Cosco Shipping, BYD.


A-H Premium Weekly (May 16th): Cosco Shipping Development, Qingdao Port International

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>Back on the 4th December 204, Starwood/Warburg Pincus Consortium announced a firm pre-conditional Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27983:1" rel="noopener"><strong>ESR Group (1821 HK)</strong></a> at HK$13/share (best &amp; final), by way of a Scheme.</li>
<li>The list of pre-cons was extensive. Last night (15th May), ESR announced the <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0515/2025051501469.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">satisfaction</a> of all pre-cons. </li>
<li>The Scheme Doc is now required to be dispatched by the 22nd May, suggesting payment around mid-July. Assuming no dispatch delays.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 4th December 204, Starwood/Warburg Pincus Consortium announced a firm pre-conditional Offer for ESR Group (1821 HK) at HK$13/share (best &amp; final), by way of a Scheme.
The list of pre-cons was extensive. Last night (15th May), ESR announced the satisfaction of all pre-cons. 
The Scheme Doc is now required to be dispatched by the 22nd May, suggesting payment around mid-July. Assuming no dispatch delays.


ESR (1821 HK): Pre-Cons Done. Scheme Doc By 22nd May

Shanghai Electric Group Company / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>AH spreads are basically flat on the shortened week. AH premia rose in Pharma and Tech, fell in Industrials, Finance, and Banks. </li>
<li>All eyes will be on what happens in Geneva. I personally don't expect much. </li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Monitor</a> are both there free for SK readers.</li>
</ul>


AH spreads are basically flat on the shortened week. AH premia rose in Pharma and Tech, fell in Industrials, Finance, and Banks. 
All eyes will be on what happens in Geneva. I personally don't expect much. 
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 9 May 2025):  AH Premia Fall Small; Spread Torsion Provides Continued Alpha

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bright-smart-securities-and" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20511:1" rel="noopener">Bright Smart Securities And (1428 HK)</a>'s Chairman entered a SPA with Ant Holdco to sell his 50.55% stake at HK$3.28, a 7.5% premium to the last close.</li>
<li>The SPA completion requires approval from both the NDRC and SFC. Unusually, Ant has the option of extending the long-stop date, reflecting a possibility of extra scrutiny by the regulators.</li>
<li>Under Rule 26.1 of the Code, upon completion, Ant will be required to make an unconditional mandatory cash offer at HK$3.28. The MGO price is final and a knockout offer.  </li>
</ul>



Bright Smart Securities And (1428 HK)'s Chairman entered a SPA with Ant Holdco to sell his 50.55% stake at HK$3.28, a 7.5% premium to the last close.
The SPA completion requires approval from both the NDRC and SFC. Unusually, Ant has the option of extending the long-stop date, reflecting a possibility of extra scrutiny by the regulators.
Under Rule 26.1 of the Code, upon completion, Ant will be required to make an unconditional mandatory cash offer at HK$3.28. The MGO price is final and a knockout offer.  


Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK): Ant’s Possible Unconditional MGO at HK$3.28

China

Guolian Securities Co. Ltd. offers financial services. The Company provides securities brokerage, asset management, securities investment, margin trading, share transfer agency, and other financial services.

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Guolian Securities Co Ltd H (1456 HK)

A/H Premium Tracker (To 16 May 2025): AH Premia Contract Small Again. BYD and CMB Go Negative.

AH Premia down small but CMB goes negative again, and BYD now joins it in negative territory, possibly on expectations of HSTECH inclusion,...

Travis Lundy

A-H Premium Weekly (May 16th): Cosco Shipping Development, Qingdao Port International

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Cosco Shipping Development, Qingdao Port International,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

ESR (1821 HK): Pre-Cons Done. Scheme Doc By 22nd May

This was always a done deal. And timing is now more assured. Assuming mid-July payment, I'd pay up to HK$12.70/share, or 15% annualised.

David Blennerhassett

A/H Premium Tracker (To 9 May 2025): AH Premia Fall Small; Spread Torsion Provides Continued Alpha

AH Premia flat on the week. Volumes are low. All eyes are on Geneva this weekend and I have no view other than to say nothing gets solved in a...

Travis Lundy

Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK): Ant’s Possible Unconditional MGO at HK$3.28

The Chairman is selling out to Ant at a knockout price (HK$3.28). Completion will trigger an unconditional MGO. Timing is the key risk, which is...

Arun George

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