Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I tally 30 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below</li>
<li>Four new deal were discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ofx-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8376:1" rel="noopener">OFX Group (OFX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/get-nice-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16415:1" rel="noopener">Get Nice (64 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/z-fin-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9999:1" rel="noopener">Z Fin (1168 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gabia-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13535:1" rel="noopener">Gabia Inc (079940 KS)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news also took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaku-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7408:1" rel="noopener">Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-shengmu-organic-milk-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12714:1" rel="noopener">China Shengmu Organic Milk (1432 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ajinomoto-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8911:1" rel="noopener">Ajinomoto Co (2802 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/changhong-jiahua-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5849:1" rel="noopener">Changhong Jiahua (3991 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 30 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below
Four new deal were discussed on Smartkarma this week: OFX Group (OFX AU), Get Nice (64 HK), Z Fin (1168 HK), and Gabia Inc (079940 KS).
Key updates/news also took place on: Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP), China Shengmu Organic Milk (1432 HK), Ajinomoto Co (2802 JP), and Changhong Jiahua (3991 HK).


Asia-Pac Weekly Wrap: Kakaku.com, OFX, Get Nice, Z Fin, Gabia Inc, China Shengmu, Ajinomoto

<ul>
<li>EQT/DG lifted their Offer Price for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaku-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7408:1" rel="noopener">Kakaku.com (2371 JP)</a> to ¥3,450/share. This "obstructs" the Bain/LY deal, slightly, temporarily, but there are nuances within. Expect Bain/LY to come over the top.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus NV (PRX NA)</a> is cheap"  vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>. And <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naspers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21085:1" rel="noopener">Naspers (NPN SJ)</a> "rich" to Prosus. Look to long Prosus here, short Tencent here. Or long Prosus, short Naspers</li>
<li>Be comfortable medium-long-term with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-matsushima-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13569:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP)</a>'s super-cheap asset. And they have niche businesses in semiconductor/tech to spruce things up if people decide they want to run with it.</li>
</ul>


EQT/DG lifted their Offer Price for Kakaku.com (2371 JP) to ¥3,450/share. This "obstructs" the Bain/LY deal, slightly, temporarily, but there are nuances within. Expect Bain/LY to come over the top.

Prosus NV (PRX NA) is cheap"  vs. Tencent (700 HK). And Naspers (NPN SJ) "rich" to Prosus. Look to long Prosus here, short Tencent here. Or long Prosus, short Naspers
Be comfortable medium-long-term with Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP)'s super-cheap asset. And they have niche businesses in semiconductor/tech to spruce things up if people decide they want to run with it.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Mitsui Matsushima, Prosus/Tencent/Naspers, Legend/Lenovo

Guotai Junan International / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Yesterday morning (23rd July), broker/investment bank <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guotai-junan-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13438:1" rel="noopener">Guotai Junan International (1788 HK)</a>  (GJI) was suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code. </li>
<li>GJI is 73.92%-controlled by the recently formed state-backed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guotai-junan-securities-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22740:1" rel="noopener">Guotai Haitong Securities (601211 CH)</a> (GHS) - see <a href="https://skr.ma/aWiHx" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GJS/Haitong Merger: One Formality Reg To Go</a>. </li>
<li>GHS will be taking out GJI. The key question is at what price? </li>
</ul>


Yesterday morning (23rd July), broker/investment bank Guotai Junan International (1788 HK)  (GJI) was suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code. 
GJI is 73.92%-controlled by the recently formed state-backed Guotai Haitong Securities (601211 CH) (GHS) - see GJS/Haitong Merger: One Formality Reg To Go. 
GHS will be taking out GJI. The key question is at what price? 


Musings On Guotai Haitong (601211 CH)'s Expected Offer For Guotai Junan (1788 HK)

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guotai-junan-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13438:1" rel="noopener">Guotai Junan International (1788 HK)</a>/GJTAI is in a trading halt “pending the issuance of an announcement pursuant to the Code on Takeovers and Mergers.” </li>
<li>It is likely that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guotai-haitong-securities-co-ltd-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23752:1" rel="noopener">Guotai Haitong Securities (2611 HK)</a> is seeking to privatise GJTAI. The timing would be opportunistic, as GJTAI has underperformed its peers over the last 12 months.</li>
<li>I use three methods to triangulate the likely offer price. My methods suggest a price range of HK$2.80 to HK$3.50 per share, a 34.6%-68.3% premium to the last close.</li>
</ul>



Guotai Junan International (1788 HK)/GJTAI is in a trading halt “pending the issuance of an announcement pursuant to the Code on Takeovers and Mergers.” 
It is likely that Guotai Haitong Securities (2611 HK) is seeking to privatise GJTAI. The timing would be opportunistic, as GJTAI has underperformed its peers over the last 12 months.
I use three methods to triangulate the likely offer price. My methods suggest a price range of HK$2.80 to HK$3.50 per share, a 34.6%-68.3% premium to the last close.


Guotai Junan International (1788 HK): Privatisation by Guotai Haitong Securities?

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of A-share stocks as of Jul 10th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD397,076m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES, ZTE, DAWNING INFORMATION INDUSTRY, SMIC, CAMBRICON.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of A-share stocks as of Jul 10th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD397,076m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES, ZTE, DAWNING INFORMATION INDUSTRY, SMIC, CAMBRICON.


A-Share Margin Trading Weekly (Jul 10th): GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES, ZTE, SMIC, CAMBRICON

China

Guotai Haitong Securities Co., Ltd. provides financial services. The Company offers corporate finance, fixed income securities, asset management, risk management, and other services. Guotai Haitong Securities serves clients globally.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Guotai Haitong Securities (601211 CH)

Asia-Pac Weekly Wrap: Kakaku.com, OFX, Get Nice, Z Fin, Gabia Inc, China Shengmu, Ajinomoto

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: Mitsui Matsushima, Prosus/Tencent/Naspers, Legend/Lenovo

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Musings On Guotai Haitong (601211 CH)'s Expected Offer For Guotai Junan (1788 HK)

I think around $3/share would be viewed as fair. Guotai Haitong Securities has the clout to go MUCH higher. The question is whether they need to.

David Blennerhassett

Guotai Junan International (1788 HK): Privatisation by Guotai Haitong Securities?

It is likely that Guotai Haitong Securities is seeking to privatise GJTAI. The timing would be opportunistic, as GJTAI has underperformed its peers...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Asia-Pac Weekly Wrap: Kakaku.com, OFX, Get Nice, Z Fin, Gabia Inc, China Shengmu, Ajinomoto

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: Mitsui Matsushima, Prosus/Tencent/Naspers, Legend/Lenovo

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Musings On Guotai Haitong (601211 CH)'s Expected Offer For Guotai Junan (1788 HK)

I think around $3/share would be viewed as fair. Guotai Haitong Securities has the clout to go MUCH higher. The question is whether they need to.

David Blennerhassett

Guotai Junan International (1788 HK): Privatisation by Guotai Haitong Securities?

It is likely that Guotai Haitong Securities is seeking to privatise GJTAI. The timing would be opportunistic, as GJTAI has underperformed its peers...

Arun George

A-Share Margin Trading Weekly (Jul 10th): GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES, ZTE, SMIC, CAMBRICON

We analyzed A-share margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES, ZTE, DAWNING INFORMATION INDUSTRY,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM