Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 6028-6059 (up from 5700-5785) and $119-$121.</li>
<li>$128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50 are short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US; we will maintain our near-term bullish outlook as long as $123 support holds.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 6028-6059 (up from 5700-5785) and $119-$121.
$128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50 are short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US; we will maintain our near-term bullish outlook as long as $123 support holds.


Continue Adding Exposure to China; Short-Term Supports to for This ACWI-US Pullback

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Following a 20% rally in 1H25, the market has built in excessive optimism on the HSI. Historically, average returns for Jul-Oct are negative, suggesting caution is needed.</li>
<li>The top 10 best-performing constituents are sitting on 24x FY25F PER, much higher than 11x for the Index, implying that earnings excitement has been well factored in. </li>
<li>Among the worst-performing ones in 1H25, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-electronic-international-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1927:1" rel="noopener">BYD Electronics (285 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-smart-home-co-ltd-b3ef445f-0f54-4586-8c58-9073de98d60e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31105:1" rel="noopener">Haier Smart Home (6690 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/techtronic-industries-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4561:1" rel="noopener">Techtronic Industries (669 HK)</a> look appealing in 2H25.</li>
</ul>


Following a 20% rally in 1H25, the market has built in excessive optimism on the HSI. Historically, average returns for Jul-Oct are negative, suggesting caution is needed.
The top 10 best-performing constituents are sitting on 24x FY25F PER, much higher than 11x for the Index, implying that earnings excitement has been well factored in. 
Among the worst-performing ones in 1H25, BYD Electronics (285 HK), Haier Smart Home (6690 HK), and Techtronic Industries (669 HK) look appealing in 2H25.


<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $120-$121 (up from 5500 and $115).</li>
<li>We are upgrading Korea(KOSPI) to overweight; we discussed May 30 several Financials and other stocks to buy. KOSPI has exploded higher since, and is now reversing its 2-year RS downtrend.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $120-$121 (up from 5500 and $115).
We are upgrading Korea(KOSPI) to overweight; we discussed May 30 several Financials and other stocks to buy. KOSPI has exploded higher since, and is now reversing its 2-year RS downtrend.


Upgrading Korea to Overweight; MSCI ACWI and Emerging Market Breakouts

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>Hansoh Pharmaceutical stuck outlicense agreement with Regeneron Pharmaceuticals for GLP-1 drug candidate for an upfront payment of $80M. Daiichi Sankyo unveiled positive phase 3 trial result in first-line breast cancer.</li>
<li>Takeda received European approval for Adcetris as a chemotherapy regimen in Hodgkin lymphoma. Zydus Lifesciences is acquiring 5.9% stake in Agenus and commercial right for its lead candidate for India.</li>
<li>Mayne Pharma has filed a complaint in the U.S. Court against TherapeuticsMD. Cosette Pharmaceuticals indicated an intention to terminate the acquisition over “material adverse clause claims.”</li>
</ul>


Hansoh Pharmaceutical stuck outlicense agreement with Regeneron Pharmaceuticals for GLP-1 drug candidate for an upfront payment of $80M. Daiichi Sankyo unveiled positive phase 3 trial result in first-line breast cancer.
Takeda received European approval for Adcetris as a chemotherapy regimen in Hodgkin lymphoma. Zydus Lifesciences is acquiring 5.9% stake in Agenus and commercial right for its lead candidate for India.
Mayne Pharma has filed a complaint in the U.S. Court against TherapeuticsMD. Cosette Pharmaceuticals indicated an intention to terminate the acquisition over “material adverse clause claims.”


APAC Healthcare Weekly (June 8)- Hansoh Pharma, Daiichi Sankyo, Takeda, Mayne Pharma, Zydus Life

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of September 18th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Knowledge Atlas, AIA, Innovent Bio, Beone Medicines, Zj Innolight, Hua Hong Semi, Cspc Pharma, Smic, Yofc, Akeso.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of September 18th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Knowledge Atlas, AIA, Innovent Bio, Beone Medicines, Zj Innolight, Hua Hong Semi, Cspc Pharma, Smic, Yofc, Akeso.


HK Connect Flows Weekly (Sep 18th): Knowledge Atlas, AIA, Innovent Bio, Beone Medicines, Cspc Pharma

China

Hansoh Pharmaceutical is a pharmaceutical company that researches, develops, manufactures, and sells a diverse portfolio of medicines. It focuses on therapeutic areas such as oncology, anti-infectives, central nervous system diseases, metabolic disorders, and autoimmune diseases. The company was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK)

Continue Adding Exposure to China; Short-Term Supports to for This ACWI-US Pullback

Continue Adding Exposure to China; $ACWI Short-Term Supports for this pullback: $128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50. Pullbacks = buy opportunities,...

Vermilion Research

HK Strategy: Some Ideas for 2H25

Excessive optimism on HSI after a 20% rally YTD, caution needed for Jul-Oct as historically returns are negative. BYD Electronic, Haier Smart...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Upgrading Korea to Overweight; MSCI ACWI and Emerging Market Breakouts

MSCI $ACWI and Emerging Market $EEM Breakouts; Upgrading Korea $EWY to Overweight; Downgrading Broad Europe, but staying Overweight Germany,...

Vermilion Research

APAC Healthcare Weekly (June 8)- Hansoh Pharma, Daiichi Sankyo, Takeda, Mayne Pharma, Zydus Life

Hansoh stuck deal with Regeneron for obesity drug candidate. Daiichi Sankyo unveiled positive phase 3 trial result in first-line breast cancer....

Tina Banerjee

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Sep 18th): Knowledge Atlas, AIA, Innovent Bio, Beone Medicines, Cspc Pharma

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Knowledge Atlas (2513 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Innovent Bio...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Continue Adding Exposure to China; Short-Term Supports to for This ACWI-US Pullback

Continue Adding Exposure to China; $ACWI Short-Term Supports for this pullback: $128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50. Pullbacks = buy opportunities,...

Vermilion Research

HK Strategy: Some Ideas for 2H25

​Excessive optimism on HSI after a 20% rally YTD, caution needed for Jul-Oct as historically returns are negative. BYD Electronic, Haier Smart...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Upgrading Korea to Overweight; MSCI ACWI and Emerging Market Breakouts

MSCI $ACWI and Emerging Market $EEM Breakouts; Upgrading Korea $EWY to Overweight; Downgrading Broad Europe, but staying Overweight Germany,...

Vermilion Research

APAC Healthcare Weekly (June 8)- Hansoh Pharma, Daiichi Sankyo, Takeda, Mayne Pharma, Zydus Life

Hansoh stuck deal with Regeneron for obesity drug candidate. Daiichi Sankyo unveiled positive phase 3 trial result in first-line breast cancer....

Tina Banerjee

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Sep 18th): Knowledge Atlas, AIA, Innovent Bio, Beone Medicines, Cspc Pharma

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Knowledge Atlas (2513 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Innovent Bio...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Excessive optimism on HSI after a 20% rally YTD, caution needed for Jul-Oct as historically returns are negative. BYD Electronic, Haier Smart...